Rays vs. Rangers Monday MLB probable pitchers, odds, props: Shane McClanahan's return from back injury status looms over Tampa Bay's World Series hopes

The Tampa Bay Rays are one of six active MLB franchises to never win a World Series, and whether the team with the American League's best record will get off that list this fall may largely depend on how ace lefty and AL Cy Young Award contender Shane McClanahan fares down the stretch. The southpaw returns from a back injury Monday night in Texas. He's set at Over/Under 2.5 earned runs allowed at Caesars Sportsbook with the Rays as short favorites vs. the AL West-leading Rangers.

Tampa Bay isn't getting to the Fall Classic for the third time in franchise history if McClanahan isn't healthy – especially with the team already losing two other excellent starting pitchers in Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to serious injury. The Rays aren't the Yankees in that they can go out and spend big money to add salary in a trade. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in payroll and often is lower than that. It's a small-market team to the core.

McClanahan was the AL Cy Young favorite until his back started flaring up. On June 22, McClanahan and the Rays were one of the biggest favorites of the MLB season at home against the Kansas City Royals but lost in part because McClanahan allowed two runs and four hits in 3.2 innings before being pulled with mid-back tightness. He didn't return to the mound until June 30 in Seattle but was shaky again, allowing four runs over five innings before again being pulled and eventually landing on the injured list.

The 26-year-old is 11-1 with a 2.53 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 101 Ks in 17 starts. He's now a +550 fourth favorite for the AL Cy Young. McClanahan's first career start against Texas was on June 11 at Tropicana Field and he allowed three runs over seven in a win. He is +155 to record a win tonight and -210 to not. This writer is a bit surprised that prop is available because McClanahan's O/U outs recorded total is not with the uncertainty of how healthy he might be, and how long he'll stay in the game. He was originally slated to pitch Sunday in Kansas City, but the Friday Rays-Royals game was postponed, which pushed McClanahan back a day.

Tampa Bay has had sole possession of first place in the AL East since the season's first weekend, but that would change Monday with a loss and the red-hot Orioles winning their ninth in a row, although Baltimore also has a very tough test at home vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers.

One player note for the Rays: All-Star first baseman/DH Yandy Diaz (.323, 13 HR, 43 RBI) should be in the lineup after missing the weekend series in Kansas City on the paternity list.

Diaz is 0-for-2 off Texas starter Dane Dunning (8-2, 2.84 ERA). Dunning missed the Rays earlier this year. He has allowed only six homers all season and his 0.59 HR/per nine innings figure is the second-lowest in the AL (minimum 90 innings). Dunning has thrown nine career scoreless innings vs. the Rays without a decision (two starts, both in 2021).

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