Rams vs. 49ers NFL Week 18 odds, props: Los Angeles starting Carson Wentz at QB; will Rookie of the Year candidate Puka Nacua play?

The Los Angeles Rams are an NFC wild card team no matter what happens in their regular-season finale at San Francisco, but the Rams could assure themselves of the No. 6 spot instead of the No. 7 if they chose to go all-out and try to beat the 49ers, who are locked into the NFC's top seed and resting Christian McCaffrey at a minimum. However, L.A. coach Sean McVay clearly indicated on Wednesday he doesn't care about the team's seed as much as rest, announcing that quarterback Matthew Stafford will not play and Carson Wentz will start.

The 49ers have moved from -3.5 to -4.5 on the SportsLine consensus. That spread would normally be much higher, but oddsmakers aren't sure whether Kyle Shanahan will rest other key players – McCaffrey is a bit banged up – or let them play a bit to avoid being rusty for the Divisional Round in a few weeks. We do know that QB Brock Purdy is also out. "Brock's the only guy for sure I don't plan on playing," Shanahan said Wednesday. Sam Darnold will start.

If Los Angeles wins or ties Sunday, it will be the No. 6 seed and visit the No. 3 on Wild Card Weekend, which is currently NFC North champion Detroit. Because the Lions lost in Week 17 in Dallas and the Cowboys should win Sunday in Washington to clinch the NFC East, it seems likely Detroit will stay put there.

Green Bay is the only team that can overtake the Rams for the No. 6 seed, but the Packers must beat visiting Chicago and have Los Angeles lose. With the scenario we mentioned above, the NFC's No. 7 seed will most likely be heading to AT&T Stadium, where the Cowboys have won 16 straight games and have generally crushed teams this season other than the Lions.

It's not a huge surprise McVay is doing this, as he was one of the first NFL head coaches to not play most of his starters in the preseason. Stafford has had a stellar bounce-back season and had four straight games with multiple touchdown passes and no picks before throwing one TD and two interceptions in last Sunday's 26-25 win at the Giants.

Wentz signed with the Rams in early November to be Stafford's backup and briefly saw action Week 12 in Arizona -- a grand total of three snaps. The former No. 2 overall pick's last start was with Washington in Week 17 last season, which was a 24-10 loss to Cleveland that ended the Commanders' wild card hopes. Wentz went 16-of-28, passing for 143 yards with three interceptions. He could make himself a little money with a strong outing Sunday as he's set for free agency again.

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Wentz to finish 20-for-33 for 231 yards, 1.12 TDs and 1.14 picks Sunday. McVay hasn't spoken about other starters, but he will likely give Puka Nacua a chance to break two rookie receiving records.

The fifth-round pick out of BYU leads the team and all rookies with 101 catches for 1,445 yards. He is four receptions and 29 yards shy of breaking both league marks. Bill Groman holds the NFL rookie mark with 1,473 receiving (set in 1960), and Jaylen Waddle set the catches mark with 104 in 2022. The SportsLine Projection Model has Nacua recording 3.1 catches for 42 yards Sunday. Nacua would win Offensive Rookie of the Year most seasons, but is a +450 second favorite behind Houston QB C.J. Stroud (-1200).

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