The 2018 NASCAR playoffs continue Sunday afternoon at Texas with the 2018 AAA Texas 500. We've simulated this huge event, which features eight drivers still alive in the playoffs and other non-playoff entries, 10,000 times to come up with a surprising projected leaderboard. 

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, our proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model takes factors such as track history and recent results into account.

It's made some huge calls in NASCAR late in the year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan, and had Brad Keselowski in its projected top three for his huge win in Vegas to open up the playoffs. Anybody following its picks this season is up huge.

One pick we'll give away for NASCAR at Texas: McClure's model is high on Chase Elliott, who surges to a top-five finish despite going off with 12-1 odds. One driver the model is fading: Kevin Harvick, who settles for a fifth-place finish despite getting 11-4 odds. There are far better values available in this loaded field. 

The model is also targeting two other drivers with odds longer than 35-1 to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who bets on these long shots could hit it BIG.

So who wins the 2018 AAA Texas 500? And which long shots will come out of nowhere to make a serious run? Join SportsLine here to see the full projected final leaderboard for NASCAR at Texas from the model that is crushing its NASCAR picks this year!