Power Ratings: Which trade pieces can shift the power?
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
The trade deadline hits us Thursday, and that means a lot of things could change around the NBA.
We're not sure how much of a market there is for Dwight Howard when he can opt out of his deal this summer. Considering what happened with him and the Los Angeles Lakers, do you trust that he'll re-sign with your team?
What about Al Horford and the Atlanta Hawks? Are they worried they can't re-sign him and therefore willing to move him to a team with a lot of assets?
How many assets would the trade partner be willing to part with considering he can leave in the summer?
And does that signify the trade of Jeff Teague as well and the end of this brief Hawks era? So much can change over the next few days.
Some teams are interesting without making moves. Some teams need to get rid of a certain player. And others need to keep a key player at all costs.
Let the transaction insanity wash over you.
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
I'm not positive what else we can say about this team right now. Best start in history. Klay Thompson and Steph Curry made it to the 3-point shootout finals because of course they did. Michael Jordan blessed Klay with going after 73 wins. In their 11-game win streak, the Warriors have trailed for seven total second half minutes in a game. Everything is coming up Milhouse for the Warriors.
| 78.0% | 72.1 | 60.8% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
Not going to pretend the Spurs need to make a move right now, so here are a couple of absurd stats. There isn't a single person on the 15-man roster who has a net rating under plus-11.2, no matter how many minutes have been played. The Spurs have sixth lowest defensive rating in the 3-point era (1979-present). Highest average margin of victory for those other five teams are the '99 Spurs with plus-8.06. This Spurs' margin of victory? Clocking in at plus-13.26.
| 74.2% | 66.5 | 64.2% | 100% |
| 3 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Not that he's rumored to be involved in any deals, but the Thunder desperately need Andre Roberson to get healthy and back with the team. He's a guy they can't afford to miss, despite his jumper looking like a Mouse Trap board missing key pieces. Before his injury, the Thunder had a defensive rating of 100.7. Since his injury, their defensive rating in those eight games is 106.8.
| 69.8% | 57.8 | 40.7% | 100% |
| 4 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Timofey Mozgov is a guy the Cavs should move for extra wing depth -- preferably a guy who can alternate between the 3 and the 4. Mozgov was the guy who came in and helped stabilize the defense last year, but this season, the Cavs are nearly three points better defensively without Mozgov on the floor. With his impending free agency, move him and keep adding versatility to the roster.
| 67.6% | 58.6 | 46.9% | 100% |
| 5 |
Atlanta Hawks
If you think Al Horford is even 40 percent likely to leave the team this summer, it's time to move Jeff Teague at the deadline. Amazingly, the Hawks are a plus-9.3 with him out of the game and minus-1.3 with him in the game. He has one more year at $8 million, which is a bargain at the salary cap jump. Maximize what you can get for him and start retooling the Hawks.
| 60.2% | 47.3 | 49.1% | 99.4% |
| 6 |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors don't really need to make a move because it can't change their trajectory this season or in the future for the better. The Raptors need to stand pat, get DeMarre Carroll healthy and into a rhythm. Then they can work on getting to the Eastern Conference finals to at least see if they can challenge the Cavs. They can remain the No. 2 team in the East and then see where the roster can improve this summer.
| 59.8% | 53.8 | 54.9% | 100% |
| 7 |
Boston Celtics
I think it's clear at this point that if you're the Celtics, giving a haul of assets for three months of Horford or Howard is a non-starter. You can't trust Howard to stay and you don't know Horford's motivations this summer. What's the max you'd give up in a deal for them because of this? Is Kelly Olynyk even gettable? Is Jared Sullinger the best young guy you can get? James Young and the Mavs' pick?
| 59.1% | 48.8 | 57.4% | 99.6% |
| 8 |
Los Angeles Clippers
This could end up being quite a minor idea, but could the Clippers get anything for C.J. Wilcox? He was their first-round pick in 2014 and there's a 95 percent chance Doc Rivers believes Wilcox is an equipment manager Blake Griffin hasn't punched by now. In 20 D-League games, he's shot 57-of-135 (42.2 percent) from deep. He's already 25 years old, but he's a deep threat at 6'5" who should be able to contribute somewhere.
| 57.7% | 51.3 | 50.0% | 99.8% |
| 9 |
Chicago Bulls
I threw out this idea on the Eye on Basketball Podcast, and it may get me banned from the city of Chicago, but would it be awful if the Bulls moved Derrick Rose for Joe Johnson? They'd be better off the rest of this season, and they'd get out of the last year of Rose's contract. Then they can pursue a star to put next to Jimmy Butler. It's not going to be the difference between being average and a contender, but neither is Rose.
| 55.7% | 44.2 | 36.5% | 91.4% |
| 10 |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are up to 10th in our Power Ratings, which is remarkable on many levels, but does this latest success drive them to make a move at the deadline? I'm not sure how much of their core you want to move, but can they still get something for Noah Vonleh? He hasn't put it together in his first two years and is probably their worst regular rotation guy. Potential on the boards and his midrange jumper is legit. He's only 20 too.
| 55.1% | 41.5 | 55.6% | 84.0% |
| 11 |
Detroit Pistons
Even though he might leave in free agency this summer, Brandon Jennings -- fresh off his ACL comeback -- should not be dealt at the deadline. Teams may be curious about acquiring him, but the Pistons' bench has struggled so much and Jennings is the cure for this. Defense and offense are both better with him on the floor. This means less Steve Blake in 2016. Stan Van Gundy has to keep him for now.
| 54.2% | 42.4 | 51.9% | 78.9% |
| 12 |
Utah Jazz
There have been some rumors of whether or not the Jazz would consider moving Alec Burks for Jeff Teague, but mostly this Jazz team has no reason to make a move. They're moving more and more comfortably into strong playoff positioning with what they have. No need to give up an asset for a point guard when you have defensive monster Dante Exum returning to the position next season. Stay the course and win with defense.
| 52.3% | 41.4 | 52.9%Â | 74.4% |
| 13 |
Indiana Pacers
If you're the Pacers, do you risk moving George Hill in order to grab Teague? And is that enough of a starter to make Atlanta interested? Hill is hitting a ridiculous 43.1 percent from deep, which is something the surprisingly mediocre-shooting Hawks would die for. However, Hill is two years older and their contracts are the same length. The Pacers could toss in Solomon Hill, but I'm not sure that actually helps.
| 50.5% | 42.7 | 50.0% | 84.8% |
| 14 |
Miami Heat
I'm 99.9 percent sure the Heat aren't going to even consider trading Hassan Whiteside and his contract is so small it wouldn't bring a ton of return. They can move Birdman to relieve luxury tax possibilities, but the Heat are kind of stuck with what they've got. What they've got is a good team that happens to shoot the third worst percentage from deep. They need shooters still. They're not getting any.
| 50.3% | 44.0 | 50.0% | 90.0% |
| 15 |
Memphis Grizzlies
Marc Gasol might be out for the season. Jeff Green isn't someone anybody wants to deal for. Poachers are coming for Mike Conley, but Memphis won't budge. Moving Z-Bo or Tony Allen won't solve anything. The Grizzlies' season is officially buffering for greater clarity and you'll probably have to force quit the application to get anything to happen. Is this the end of Grit'N'Grind?
| 49.1% | 46.3 | 49.0% | 99.3% |
| 16 |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs have received such (I can't believe I'm saying this in 2016) solid play out of Deron Williams, JJ Barea, and Raymond Felton that maybe moving Devin Harris could bring some wing or interior depth. Like would you move him for Trevor Booker of the Jazz? He's a bit banged up, but that's a move that benefits both sides. How do I Cyberdust this trade to Mark Cuban?
| 48.8% | 41.9 | 54.6% | 84.6% |
| 17 |
New Orleans Pelicans
There is one player on the Pelicans with a positive net rating this season and it's Jrue Holiday. They should trade him. Not to tank, but because they need to retool the roster, his health has been an issue for two years, and with him looking healthy now, you can get good return on his modest contract through 2017. The Pels can't hold on to last season. Build a team that works no matter what.
| 48.2% | 33.2 | 41.5% | 0.8% |
| 18 |
Houston Rockets
Once we get a resolution on whether or not they'll move Dwight by the deadline, I'm done with this team. I just can't stand their indifference to excellence and it has broken my ability to care about what happens to them. I'm ejecting from them until next season, which will make writing about them the next two months pretty difficult. Maybe I'll just quickly review Freddie Prinze Jr. performances in this space. Tune in to find out.
| 47.4% | 39.5 | 41.8% | 53.1% |
| 19 |
Orlando Magic
Did you see what Aaron Gordon did at the dunk contest? He dunked over a mascot while sitting down and putting the ball under his legs! This is something a human being did on television and didn't get found out as being a cyborg! Get him more time! Can he do that dunk in a game with Channing Frye taking the place of the mascot? How is he not playing 35 minutes per night? He's not Harold Miner. Free Aaron Gordon!
| 45.4% | 36.1 | 56.9% | 4.4% |
| 20 |
Washington Wizards
Can you get anything for Nene on an expiring contract? Can the Wizards trick a trade partner into thinking his positive net rating and decent numbers are actually sustainable for the rest of the season? The Wizards need a better power forward option to put next to Marcin Gortat, and Nene is at the end of his time. If you can even just get expirings and a second-round pick, you do it, right?
| 44.9% | 38.4 | 51.0% | 14.6% |
| 21 |
Charlotte Hornets
We had just gotten excited about the fun return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and then he dislocated his shoulder yet again and will miss some considerable time. Unfortunately for Charlotte, I'm not sure they have the assets to really go get some help. Jeremy Lamb is on a nice contract so maybe they can move him, but how much return is he actually getting you?
| 43.5% | 39.7 | 50.0% | 36.1% |
| 22 |
Sacramento Kings
Do the Kings have one of those factory accident day counters that just says, "It's been 14 days since we were rumored to fire George Karl" in the practice facility? It's possible they look to move Rudy Gay for that post-Rudy trade bump Memphis and Toronto enjoyed after his time there. But the Kings look stuck in the mud once again. We're wasting DeMarcus Cousins' career.
| 41.3% | 34.4 | 44.2% | 2.5% |
| 23 |
Denver Nuggets
Do the Nuggets have the right assets to go get Dwight? Could a package of Jusuf Nurkic, JJ Hickson (contract filler) Danilo Gallinari, and maybe Portland's protected pick be enough for Daryl Morey to make the deal? Isn't Gallo perfect for what Houston wants to do when they decide to care about basketball? Howard may leave but Denver would be fine throwing that big contract at him.
| 40.1% | 34.0 | 57.7% | 1.6% |
| 24 |
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is in a weird spot. They have a couple of rotation guys (Monroe, MCW) who don't work with what they want to do. They have some good, veteran role players contending teams would want. They could open up space for guys like Ennis, Inglis, and Vaughn to cut their teeth a little. They probably won't be active but the Bucks could reshuffle things quickly and get back to where they were a year ago by next season.
| 40.1% | 33.5 | 51.9% | 0.5% |
| 25 |
Brooklyn Nets
OK, let's pretend that the Joe Johnson-Derrick Rose swap idea I pitched earlier happens. Then what about sending Brook Lopez and Bojan Bogdanovic to the Rockets for Dwight? For Houston, they don't lose Dwight without getting something in return. For Brooklyn, they restart with Dwight and Rose. It likely ends sadly for Brooklyn, but look at their happiness void right now. How could it possibly get worse?
| 39.3% | 24.1 | 49.1% | 0.0% |
| 26 |
New York Knicks
Don't make a move, New York. OK, so this season is unlikely to yield a playoff spot with Kurt Rambis now coaching and tanking doesn't help because no pick. Phil Jackson should take this roster, highlighted by Kristaps Porzingis, into the offseason and see what other magic he can work. They took a huge step forward this season. A couple of good or even solid players could keep transforming them into high respectability.
| 38.6% | 33.7 | 52.7% | 0.5% |
| 27 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
There have been rumors of teams inquiring about Shabazz Muhammad because maybe he's the odd man out with this young core developing. His minutes aren't totally consistent and he could become one of the league's best bench scorers. The Wolves have zero reason to move him and shouldn't move him. They control his destiny thanks to restricted free agency and still have a full year to find his groove.
| 37.7% | 26.9 | 45.3% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Philadelphia 76ers
Would it be crazy for the Sixers to think about moving Nerlens Noel at the trade deadline? This team has been apoplectic offensively with him this season, and they're big on flipping young assets for more assets. If you don't think he and Jahlil Okafor can coexist long-term, getting him in the market and getting a nice haul for him could be a sneaky Sam Hinkie move. Fans may burn the building down but it's not like a lot of people are in there anyway.
| 34.1% | 17.7 | 48.1% | 0.0% |
| 29 |
Los Angeles Lakers
One of their latest signings, Lou Williams, needs to go. He's not suited for a team this bad. He's the type of bench scorer who can come in and make a difference for a playoff team. He's completely wasted on this Lakers team and not helping them in any way. He's owed $14 million over the next two years, which becomes a steal.
| 32.5% | 19.2 | 47.3% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Phoenix Suns
Everybody. Everybody has got to go. I know you may be looking at this team and wondering, "Well, what about building around the young guys?" You can keep Devin Booker. He might be the best shooter in the league once Steph and Klay start declining, but as for right now, everybody else has to go. Rebuild this franchise. From the top on down. Make Robert Sarver sell the team and let's get these Suns to rise once again.
| 24.4% | 20.3 | 38.9% | 0.0% |
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