Power Ratings: Which playoff-bound teams are dangerous?
The Western and Eastern Conference playoff races for the final two spots may have finally shaped up.
Although the Chicago Bulls, Washington Wizards and Dallas Mavericks aren't officially eliminated with about two weeks left to play, their fates seem to rest in the hands of their opponents more than it rests in their own possession.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
The Mavs have fallen to the No. 9 seed in the West, lost Chandler Parsons, and now have to pray they're in a position to beat the Utah Jazz in the second-to-last game of the season in order to sneak in for a quick dance with the Golden State Warriors.
Or maybe the Houston Rockets will continue to implode at the worst times and give them some hope.
The Bulls lost a couple of games they couldn't afford to lose and put the Pistons in the driver's seat.
The Indiana Pacers look safe to be in the No. 7 seed and shouldn't fall out of the playoff picture altogether.
The Wizards' loss to Minnesota effectively ended their push, although they're still in it mathematically.
Can we get a little more drama in this race the rest of the way or do we have our 16 teams?
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
We can add another record to the list. As they close in on 73 wins and maybe even a perfect season at home, the Warriors cemented themselves as the greatest 3-point shooting team of all-time (just in case there was some confusion). They've set a record with 952 3-pointers and counting. They also have the second best 3-point percentage (41.6) in NBA history. This combination seems unfair.
| 78.8% | 73.2 | 56.3% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
It doesn't look like the Spurs are going to reach 70 wins. They'd have to win out the rest of the season, and they still have two games against a Warriors team gunning for 73 or more wins. I doubt they care to go all out to accomplish this. SportsLine projects 67 wins. Only 10 teams have done that. Only two teams have won 67 games and not won the title. We'll have a third this season.
| 70.5% | 67.1 | 57.5% | 100% |
| 3 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
For whatever reason, I can't get past the peculiar behavior of LeBron James lately. It's weird we have a team that will win the No. 1 seed in the East, is an almost lock to win a trip to the NBA Finals, and all we are talking about is the star distancing himself from the team on the surface. Whether or not he does leave doesn't matter at the moment. It looks like LeBron is distracting from the team on purpose.
| 70.3% | 58.3 | 45.7% | 100% |
| 4 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Is it possible the Thunder are surging and we don't realize it? They've run off seven straight wins with five of those victories coming by double digits. They even took down the Spurs! Sure, it was the Spurs' second and third units because they rested a lot of key players, but if you let facts get in the way of feelings, you're going to ruin a better story.
| 67.1% | 56.5 | 43.7% | 100% |
| 5 |
Atlanta Hawks
We're starting to see the Hawks of last season. We've seen them play that way on defense but over the last 13 games (11-2), they're putting up an offensive rating of 107.1, blowing teams out of the water, and they're shooting 36.9 percent from deep (34.9 percent on the season). Difference this time is Kyle Korver. 46.9 percent from deep in this stretch and team is a plus-21.7 with him on the floor.
| 58.0% | 48.1 | 54.2% | 100% |
| 6 |
Los Angeles Clippers
Hey, look at that! Blake Griffin is now serving his suspension for punching a team employee, meaning he'll be back in about a week. Then they'll have about a week to work him back into the rotation and get everybody up to speed with Griffin in the mix. Good news? The offense is about to kick it up a notch. It's about 2.5 points better per 100 possessions with Blake on the floor.
| 57.5% | 51.5 | 47.8% | 99.9% |
| 7 |
Boston Celtics
In the middle of this really good season by the Celtics, one thing that has popped up in a bad way is the shooting of Marcus Smart. He's 34.2 percent from the field and 25.1 percent from 3-point range. It's the worst shooting season in NBA history. He and 1999-00 Vernon Maxwell are the only players to take at least 450 shots, 200 3-pointers, and shoot under 35 percent from the field. Mad Max clocked in at 34.5/30.0.
| 57.4% | 48.0 | 54.2% | 100% |
| 8 |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers have struggled quite a bit in March, but it's understandable considering 10 of their past 14 games have been on the road. They're 6-8 during that stretch, but find themselves 3.5 behind Memphis for the No. 5 seed. You would think there aren't enough games left for Portland to catch them, but that also assumes Memphis has enough players to field a starting five.
| 55.8% | 42.9 | 55.4% | 99.7% |
| 9 |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors fall a few spots this week, but they don't really have much to play for. Sure, they could really stretch their fatigue and go after the No. 1 seed in the East, but deciding rest is more important is the way to go. They've burned out two straight years in the playoffs. Nobody can take the No. 2 seed from them. They're a win away from their first 50-win season. Coast until the playoffs start. Get healthy.
| 55.4% | 54.5 | 53.5% | 100% |
| 10 |
Houston Rockets
Over the last 20 games, the Rockets are just 9-11 and haven't been able to separate themselves from the race for the No. 8 seed. They still may wind up with the No. 7 spot or they may finish in the lottery. You can't blame James Harden during this 20-game stretch though. He's putting up 30.4 points, 8.9 assists, and 6.6 rebounds. Turnovers (5.4) are high but he's trying to do everything on offense there.
| 54.5% | 40.8 | 43.2% | 90.8% |
| 11 |
Indiana Pacers
For all the talk early on of Paul George playing stretch-4 and the Pacers going with a faster, spread out style of play, Indiana's most used and most effective lineup is George Hill, Monta Ellis, Paul George, Myles Turner, and Ian Mahinmi. This traditional lineup is a plus-7.3 per 100 possessions and give up just 94.2 points per 100. Can this lineup give the Cavs or Raptors problems?
| 54.4% | 44.4 | 50.0% | 95.8% |
| 12 |
Miami Heat
SportsLine believes in the Heat more and more as we get toward the end of the season. Despite no Chris Bosh, the Heat are up three spots this week. Interestingly enough, their three most effective lineups this season don't involve Chris Bosh at all. The lineup they've used the most, which includes Bosh, is just a plus-0.3. I wouldn't say they're better without Bosh, but they've adapted.
| 53.6% | 47.2 | 52.1%Â | 99.9% |
| 13 |
Charlotte Hornets
As impressive as the Hornets have been all season long, it's fair to wonder whether or not they're set up for postseason success. The 3-point shooting and the team defense suggest they are. They can play with anybody because of that. But they're below .500 (17-20) against non-losing teams and 25-11 against below .500 squads. Will that translate to the postseason? Could home court advantage in first round fix that?
| 53.5% | 46.8 | 52.8% | 100% |
| 14 |
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons ran off five straight wins during an easy stretch of their schedule and it's resulted in Detroit taking a commanding lead over the Bulls for the final playoff spot. They are up two games with eight to play and their playoff percentage is up 27.3 percent this week. The Pistons are more likely to challenge for the No. 7 seed than fall out of the playoffs altogether.
| 50.9% | 42.8 | 52.1% | 78.6% |
| 15 |
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls, after two not great losses to the Knicks this past week, are really about to be screwed in the playoff picture. Their playoff percentage is down 47.4 percent as they've plummeted to a 16.2 percent chance of making the postseason. They'll have injuries to soften the blow of missing the postseason, assuming they're done, but I'm not sure Chicago will be understanding.
| 50.8% | 41.1 | 40.3% | 16.2% |
| 16 |
Washington Wizards
Looks like the Wizards are done this season. Playoff percentage isn't even at 10 percent and that loss to the Timberwolves was the death blow to their postseason hopes. Ted Leonsis probably won't do this, but you have to consider dropping Randy Wittman and making a run at Tom Thibodeau this summer. This team was supposed to challenge for the No. 2 seed.
| 49.8% | 39.9 | 50.7% | 9.6% |
| 17 |
Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently putting up 24 points, 11 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per 100 possessions this season. If this can hold through the final two weeks of the season, it will be just the eighth time in NBA history and he'd have some pretty incredible company. Only Larry Bird (four times), LeBron James (twice), and Russell Westbrook (currently) have ever done this (dates back to 73-74 season).
| 49.3% | 34.7 | 50.7% | 0.0% |
| 18 |
Utah Jazz
All of a sudden, the Jazz are in a position to push for the No. 6 seed. With the collapse of the Mavs and the Rockets while Utah has won seven of its past nine games, the Jazz are now a half game ahead of Houston for the final spot and 1.5 behind Portland for the No. 6 seed. Their playoff percentage is up 41.6 percent this week thanks to the demise of the Mavericks.
| 48.3% | 40.9 | 50.0% | 80.4% |
| 19 |
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis isn't in danger of missing the playoffs, but you have to wonder if in situations like this we should be able to swap them out for another team. The Grizzlies would still get the playoff revenue (or let's say 75 percent of it) for the first round. But if the replacement team wins the first round, all games from then on flip the percentages of revenue.
| 46.9% | 43.7 | 53.5% | 99.8% |
| 20 |
Dallas Mavericks
I didn't buy into the Mavericks being a top 10 team last week. Figured SportsLine was just lagging a bit with the injuries to the team and their recent struggles. This week, I feel much better about the computer's assessment of the team. They've dropped 10 spots and their playoff percentage took a hit of nearly 40 points. They've lost 10 of their last 12 and Mark Cuban is mad at the officials. It's getting bad.
| 45.8% | 38.9 | 52.8% | 29.3% |
| 21 |
New York Knicks
The Knicks aren't any good, but they've managed to grab a couple of those moral victories lately. Despite the fact that they've had a heavy rotation of Jose Calderon and Sasha Vujacic in the backcourt together (on purpose even), the Knicks potentially ruined the Bulls' season. This is how you rebuild a rivalry. Exactly like this.
| 44.6% | 33.8 | 52.7% | 0.0% |
| 22 |
Orlando Magic
Since the trade of Tobias Harris, the Magic haven't been great. But that's OK because they weren't great before that. Unfortunately for them, injuries have kept us from seeing more of the lineup of Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Mario Hezonja, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic. It's a plus-18.8 in 55 minutes since the All-Star break. It's their third most used lineup since then and really should be their future.
| 43.4% | 34.0 | 55.6% | 0.0% |
| 23 |
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets dropped four spots this week and that's probably about right for where this team is and should be. They're definitely not a top 20 team like they were a week ago, but they're not as bad as the teams below them. I'm also not sure the drop is warranted based on this past week though. They lost by five to Charlotte before taking down the Cavs and Pacers. Scrappy Nets.
| 43.2% | 25.2 | 52.1% | 0.0% |
| 24 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Ricky Rubio is scoring efficiently and hitting shots. Zach LaVine is a flamethrower over his last 24 games. Karl-Anthony Towns is the best rookie since Tim Duncan. But there is one pretty dark spot on this young core right now: Shabazz Muhammad. After being a reserve scoring machine last year, he's completely lost. He's not getting the same chances. Have to wonder if his agent will look to get him moved this summer.
| 42.2% | 27.6 | 48.6% | 0.0% |
| 25 |
Denver Nuggets
If you're wondering why Denver is dropping three spots this week, just think of it like this: they were a crazy fall away 35-footer from Emmanuel Mudiay from losing to the Sixers and going 1-3 this past week. I still very much like how Michael Malone has treated the development aspect of this season. You look at some of the coaches below this team and you don't see that.
| 41.0% | 34.7 | 54.9% | 0.1% |
| 26 |
Phoenix Suns
Only the Bulls and Pelicans are worse than the Phoenix Suns this season against the spread. That is pretty impressive, considering the last two months have featured some pretty high totals to lay in order for their opponent to cover. The Suns got Brandon Knight back from injury and it hasn't really helped anything. Let's just bask in the bright future of Devin Booker and ignore the rest.
| 38.9% | 23.4 | 42.5% | 0.0% |
| 27 |
Sacramento Kings
When the Kings have good individual games, George Karl is diminishing those accomplishments. He went out and said Seth Curry could last a couple years in this league. He said the players around Willie Cauley-Stein are the reason for his success. George Karl is now George Costanza challenging the higher-ups at the Play Now Corporation. It's like he's daring them to fire him and digging his own career grave to his liking.
| 35.6% | 32.2 | 45.1% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Philadelphia 76ers
SportsLine projects two more victories for the Sixers this season, which would put them at 11 wins. Instead of tying the worst record in NBA history (for an 82-game schedule) at 9-73, the Sixers would become just the fourth team in league history to win 11 or fewer games in an 82-game campaign. It hasn't been done since the 1998 Denver Nuggets. Byron Scott next year accepts this challenge if he still has a job.
| 31.7% | 11.4 | 46.6% | 0.0% |
| 29 |
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans fall two spots this week and now are lower than everybody not named the Lakers. Since the Pelicans shut Anthony Davis down for the rest of the season, the two leaders in shot attempts are Toney Douglas and Luke Babbitt. Tim Frazier is fourth. Dante Cunningham has taken the second most threes. This is how you tank when your season doesn't go to plan.
| 26.4% | 29.3 | 41.7% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Los Angeles Lakers
The two worst seasons in the Los Angeles era for the Lakers have come the last two seasons under Byron Scott's watch. As of Monday, they're 50 games out of first place in the conference, which I didn't even know was possible to do, let alone plausible. It's the worst defensive team in Lakers history. Other than that, things are going great.
| 24.4% | 17.1 | 43.8% | 0.0% |
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