Power Ratings: What to believe with the Bulls?
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
The month of January was a tough one in the NBA.
We saw multiple coaches fired, big time injuries ravage competitive teams, and the Golden State Warriors topple two huge opponents in blowout victories over the Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs.
There are times in which the league looks pretty academic because of the Warriors, but you also have to wonder how much stock can we put into regular season match-ups, even when they're one-sided.
As the Power Ratings head into February, you have several teams being projected as way higher than their current standard.
The New Orleans Pelicans look to be revived from the dead and very much in the hunt.
The Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls have struggled, and yet remain in the top 10 as they're projected to really matter, warts and all, when the postseason comes around.
And we still haven't seen virtual confidence lost in teams like the Houston Rockets, Washington Wizards, and Indiana Pacers shaken out of SportsLine.
We're getting deeper into the second half of the season, and that means teams are running out of time to get their stuff together.
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
We're running out of superlatives to talk about when it comes to the Warriors. They're one game ahead of the 72-10 pace from the '95-'96 Bulls. They're currently on pace to break the record for 3-pointers made in a season by 120 makes. They're tied for the most accurate 3-point shooting season at 42.8 percent. What's next? They challenge the 2000-01 Lakers' one-loss title run? Oh my ... they're going to do that, aren't they?
| 78.9% | 71.5 | 61.7% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
Heading into this past week, the Spurs hadn't lost multiple games in the same week this season. The Spurs' closest losses in terms of days between them came between opening night (loss to OKC) and November 4 (loss to Wizards), which spanned eight days. This week, they dropped a game to the Warriors and then five days later loss to the Cavs. That's just kind of crazy to think about.
| 73.0% | 64.7 | 66.0% | 100% |
| 3 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Other than the free-falling Suns, nobody is worse against the spread than the Thunder. It's hard to tell what that means with this team vs. the betting public's view of them because they have the third highest net rating. It's like the betting lines expect them to be the Warriors and Spurs, but they're not. They're still destroying teams but not to the degree that helps them cover. Weird to say a team isn't dominant enough when they're dominating.
| 69.4% | 56.8 | 38.8% | 100% |
| 4 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Prior to the Cavs canning David Blatt, the team had an offensive rating of 105.6, a defensive rating of 99.7, a net rating of plus-5.8, and played at a pace of just over 95 possessions per game. In the five games since Tyronn Lue took over, the offense is up 10 points per 100 possessions, the defense is nearly 10 points worse, the net rating is plus-6.0, and the pace is just over 93 possessions. Big change so far?
| 65.7% | 59.2 | 47.7% | 100% |
| 5 |
Los Angeles Clippers
We've gone from being impressed by the Clippers surviving without Blake Griffin to wondering if the Clippers can survive another month and a half to two months without their star forward. In the meantime, the bench looks better sans Josh Smith, and JJ Redick is giving the Clippers a threat every team is terrified of handling. But are they going to be able to hold off Memphis for the 4?
| 62.0% | 53.6 | 51.1% | 99.6% |
| 6 |
Boston Celtics
Despite the hiccup to Orlando on Sunday, the Celtics are feasting on a pretty easy schedule as of late. They won five straight games prior to Sunday's loss, and it's pushed them up two spots in the Power Ratings. During this six-game stretch, the Celtics are destroying opponents with Kelly Olynyk on the floor. They're plus-0.3 without him and plus-27.9 with him. Those are Draymond Green type splits.
| 60.6% | 47.1 | 54.2% | 97.9% |
| 7 |
Toronto Raptors
How seriously do we need to start taking this Raptors team? I get we're worried about a collapse like we saw last season, but this 11-game win streak has become pretty serious. First five games of it involved a bunch of struggling and bad teams, but the last six have seen impressive wins over the Heat, Clippers, Celtics, Knicks, and Pistons. They're just 2.5 games behind Cleveland and on pace to be the only other East team breaking 50 wins.
| 59.5% | 53.7 | Â 56.5% | 100.0% |
| 8 |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are trying to figure out what to do with Jeff Teague. On the one hand, he's had a decent season following an All-Star season and once this salary cap jumps in the summer, his $8 million becomes a steal. That can be a great trade chip. But are the Hawks going to move him so they can start Dennis Schroder and his 32.2 percent from three? His net rating (plus-9.6) is great but will that hold up as a full-time starter?
| 58.5% | 46.2 | 46.8% | 95.5% |
| 9 |
Chicago Bulls
I'm completely confused by this latest stretch by Derrick Rose and the Bulls. In the first 27 games of the season, Rose struggled with 13.7 points on 37.3 percent. Chicago was 16-11 in this time. In the 19 games (10-9) since, Rose has soared to 18.3 points on 47.9 percent shooting. The Bulls have become so much worse with Rose playing well too. The defense has fallen off the map and his offense doesn't seem to matter.
| 55.2% | 47.2 | 39.1% | 96.8% |
| 10 |
Memphis Grizzlies
I'm still not sure what to make out of this Grizzlies team. Are they a top 10 team like SportsLine suggests? I believe they're the fifth best team in the West and there isn't much competition for it, but that mostly has to do with how horrendous Houston is. They're stuck between wanting to play small and still needing to involve a weapon like Z-Bo. Stagnation best describes them but they're competitively stagnant.
| 54.9% | 47.1 | 47.8% | 99.5% |
| 11 |
Detroit Pistons
Competitive losses to the Cavs and Raptors helped the Pistons hop over the Pacers this week, but with the bench issues of Detroit not totally solved by the return of Brandon Jennings. The Pistons’ bench is the second lowest scoring set of reserves in the NBA, and it's the only bench shooting under 40 percent on the season. Biggest plus they have is the defense and 3-point shooting of Anthony Tolliver.
| 51.8% | 43.2 | 56.5% | 75.1% |
| 12 |
Indiana Pacers
With the slump Paul George has been in since the league readjusted to him being back on the court, the Pacers needed something good to happen. They needed something big to change. Sometimes, that comes with a signing or a trade or a firing/hiring. In this case, it’s come in the form of George Hill cutting off his dyed blond hair. I expect PG13 to wreck the league now that the blond hair is out of their locker room.
| 51.6% | 44.2 | 51.1%Â | 87.9% |
| 13 |
Washington Wizards
This is a key, emotional week for the Wizards. They fought hard for their coach to get him a win over Houston on the passing of Randy Wittman's older brother. Now their coach will be away from the team for two days as they try to cut down the 2.5 games between them and the No. 8 seed. Thoughts and prayers are with the Wittmans.
| 50.9% | 40.9 | 51.1% | 45.3% |
| 14 |
Utah Jazz
The Jazz won't be getting Dante Exum back this season, but they're not all that far from getting Alec Burks back. Then they can feel like they have the healthy rotation they were expecting to compete with this season. Having Gobert, Favors, and Hayward is huge though. The Jazz are plus-8.9 per 100 possessions with those three on the court together. Keep that healthy and they're a playoff team.
| 50.7% | 38.8 | 53.3% | 51.2% |
| 15 |
Miami Heat
The Heat run off four straight wins over the past week and jump up three spots in the Power Ratings. They now have Goran Dragic healthy after he missed eight games in a row, and amazingly they're better with him than without him. Seriously, there were people wondering if Dragic should be on the Heat because of the offense struggling. Maybe just giving your dynamic, scoring PG the ball and see what happens?
| 49.4% | 43.8 | 51.1% | 79.3% |
| 16 |
Houston Rockets
I dont know what to do anymore. SportsLine believes because the talent and the offense are really good. The defense is pathetic. They're 28th in the NBA in defensive rating. They have Dwight Howard and yet somehow are 29th in defensive rebounding rate. They can't stop teams from making shots. They also can't stop themselves from zombie walking through this season like a Thriller remake. Just try to care!
| 49.2% | 40.6 | 42.0% | 81.6% |
| 17 |
New Orleans Pelicans
Don't look now, but the Pelicans are dangerously close to being in this playoff race for the No. 8 seed in the West. A handful of teams in NBA history have made the playoffs after a 1-9 start. If the Pelicans can keep Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, and Jrue Holiday (plus-9.9 as a trio) on the floor together, the Pelicans may leap frog everybody in front of them. That includes the Rockets.
| 48.8% | 35.7 | 43.5% | 14.9% |
| 18 |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs drop a spot in the Power Ratings this week, but they're still sitting comfortably in the No. 6 seed and have one of the top marks against the spread of any team in the NBA. It's interesting the Mavs are the ninth team in the West in these ratings but have a 96.4 percent playoff likelihood. SportsLine expects them to make the postseason but is expecting a quick exit. That's fair.
| 48.4% | 43.5 | 58.0% | 96.4% |
| 19 |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are officially squirrely and making a move for being playoff bound. It's a bit tricky because getting smoked in the first round may not be worth losing their lottery protected first-round pick. Here's a weird stat though: their 9-5 January was their best January since 2009. They've had some much better teams between then and now. This was the tops for them. Blazers are humming.
| 47.0% | 37.8 | 53.1% | 42.8% |
| 20 |
Orlando Magic
Orlando's January was way more brutal than the Blazers' January was successful. Thanks to a comeback victory over the Celtics on Sunday, Orlando improved to 2-12 since the turn of the calendar. Things look bleak in Orlando, but I have a solution: Unleash Hezonja. Orlando is 1-0 when he scores at least 17 points in a game. You need a revolution. Mario Hezonja is the revolution.
| 45.6% | 35.7 | 53.3% | 1.8% |
| 21 |
Sacramento Kings
Every time the Kings start surging, something happens and knocks them back down like some reverse tubthumping song. They won five straight to take control of the No. 8 spot. Now they've dropped four straight and DeMarcus Cousins rolled his ankle. He's probably going to be fine, but this crowded race is unforgiving for those trying to limp in. The Kings need another surge without getting knocked down immediately.
| 45.6% | 35.8 | 47.8% | 13.7% |
| 22 |
New York Knicks
Here's the great thing about Kristaps Porzingis, aside from the obvious answer of "everything." He got pretty worked over by the Warriors and Draymond Green and his response was going against Draymond showed him exactly how much work he has to put into playing and learning defense. He is the exact attitude you want with a young guy along with the skill set and physical attributes. He's going to be great.
| 42.9% | 37.2 | 58.0% | 6.2% |
| 23 |
Charlotte Hornets
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is back after we thought he was lost for the season, and this may be the injection of life the Hornets need. His defense is so good and he wears down his matchup as the game goes on. His assignment's field goal percentage drops each quarter against MKG. And now he might be shooting corner threes successfully. Imagine being a perimeter player going against MKG and Nicolas Batum. That's a nightmare.
| 42.6% | 38.4 | 48.9% | 13.7% |
| 24 |
Phoenix Suns
The Suns have lost Eric Bledsoe, they've fired Jeff Hornacek, and they've lost 19 of their past 21 games. Yet somehow the Suns aren't falling in the Power Ratings. Is SportsLine afraid the actual sun will leave us if Phoenix drops? Is the computer solar powered? Is the computer the bad guy from Superman IV? None of you saw Superman IV, did you?
| 41.1% | 26.2 | 36.7% | 0.0% |
| 25 |
Milwaukee Bucks
During the month of January, Giannis Antetokounmpo played 74 percent of the minutes available in a game. He played nearly 36 minutes per game. During those minutes he spent on the floor, the Bucks were plus-6.0 per 100 and the defense gave up a respectable 103.2 points per 100. In those 12 minutes a night without him? Defense gave up 113.4 and the Bucks were a minus-27.7. He can't really afford to rest for them to win.
| 40.1% | 33.6 | 52.2% | 0.7% |
| 26 |
Denver Nuggets
The signs you want to see with the impact Emmanuel Mudiay is having on the Nuggets were there in January. He played 11 of the 15 games and the team was a plus-0.6 per 100 with the rook on the floor. The offense was nearly nine points better too and the Nuggets were a minus-5.8 without him. You're getting some serious team impact with his play now. That makes Denver quite dangerous.
| 38.2% | 31.1 | 54.4% | 0.4% |
| 27 |
Brooklyn Nets
What would you say if I told you the Nets were rallying around these injuries and malaise to have themselves a very promising January? What if I told you the defense was getting really good and the offense was dangerous? Would you believe me? You shouldn't. It's a lie. They were 3-13 in January and got smoked, but I needed to fill out this space.
| 37.6% | 23.6 | 48.9% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Since that inspiring 8-8 start, the Wolves haven't been spectacular. They're 6-27 in their past 33 games, but the good news is they're still getting great play from the young guys. Zach LaVine is scoring 22 points on 63 percent shooting last four games. Gorgui Dieng is averaging 18 and 11 over last three games. Karl-Anthony Towns is doing rookie stuff only Shaq and Tim Duncan have done. There will be wins. Just not now.
| 35.6% | 24.1 | 43.8% | 0.0% |
| 29 |
Los Angeles Lakers
Byron Scott was worried young guys like D'Angelo Russell were becoming too confident. Now he's wondering if his guys don't have enough confidence after he's hammered it out of his young players. At a certain point, players need to sit Scott down, look him in the eye, and say, "Paint your face, clown."
| 22.9% | 14.6 | 42.0% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Philadelphia 76ers
Philly got dropped back into the last spot after swapping with the Lakers last week. But there are signs of life. Through December 31, the Sixers won three of their 34 games. In 14 games in January, the Sixers won four games. They're now in the top 20 in defensive rating. Progress is being had and they're in danger of missing on the league's worst record once again.
| 21.6% | 14.3 | 46.8% | 0.0% |
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