Power Ratings: SportsLine taking Portland seriously
Are the Portland Trail Blazers the fifth best team in basketball?
It sounds a bit absurd, right? They're just two games over .500 and their point differential is only plus-1.2, but they've been on such a hot streak over the last month and a half that they've seen a meteoric rise up the Power Ratings.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
SportsLine has gone from thinking this was a bottom 10 team about a month ago to putting them ahead of the Los Angeles Clippers, Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors, and Atlanta Hawks.
The reason? Since they fell to nine games below .500 on January 8, the Blazers have set the world on fire. They've won 14 of their past 17 games and now project to be one of the best playoff teams in the postseason.
Do we take this seriously or do we just wonder if SportsLine has developed a rooting interest and fallen for this Portland team?
Will we expect the Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, and Oklahoma City Thunder to want to avoid the Blazers?
If Portland gets to the No. 5 seed, can we expect the Clippers to actually drop that first-round series?
Does this mean Terry Stotts should be neck and neck with Steve Kerr/Luke Walton for Coach of the Year?
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
Is it hard to have an historic streak of basketball get interrupted by the All-Star break? That's what it looks like in the first two games back for the Warriors. Sitting at 48-4 heading into the break, then get blitzed by the Blazers and survive a late run by the Clippers to eek out a win. Four more games on the road and then a home-heavy March should get them back to utter, historic dominance.
| 78.0% | 71.7 | 58.5% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are also on a road swing right now, and showed some rust (without Kawhi Leonard) the first game back against the Clippers. Maybe this is just expected with this level of greatness because the momentum before the break is really hard to sustain after. How do they get back on track? One of their next eight opponents currently has a winning record. Let the feast begin.
| 73.2% | 66.0 | 60.7% | 100% |
| 3 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
What an impressive win over the Thunder on Sunday to cement their status as the third best team according to SportsLine. They've been swapping with OKC back and forth all season long, but with only a little bit of Kyrie Irving on Sunday, LeBron James led a dominant second half effort. The question becomes, at what point is Kyrie a staple instead of a luxury? And can they challenge in the Finals if he's just a luxury?
| 68.8% | 60.7 | 47.1% | 100% |
| 4 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
A pretty disappointing loss by the Thunder, which highlights the concern of how they do against the better teams in the NBA. Are you below .500? Then you're getting stomped by the Thunder (27-3, +339). Are you .500 or better? Then you have a great shot against OKC (13-13, +83). Is this just a regular season thing or will we see this pop up in the playoffs?
| 67.0% | 55.7 | 39.3% | 100% |
| 5 |
Portland Trail Blazers
How about those Blazers? A month ago, the Power Ratings clocked them in at 21 on the list. Since then, they have the second best record in the league (11-2 behind 12-1 Warriors) and the second best net rating (plus-10.6, Warriors first at plus-12.9). This team, which was a disaster early on defensively, is the second best defense in the NBA during that stretch. This is getting so fun watching them.
| 58.4% | 42.9 | 57.1% | 95.8% |
| 6 |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics haven't been as hot as Portland, but they've won 14 of their past 19 games. Big key to this is how often they force turnovers. The ball hawking of the Celtics is forcing a turnover 16.6 percent of the time. Over this 19-game stretch, they're the best in the NBA at forcing turnovers. If you take care of the ball against Boston, you're golden.
| 58.3% | 48.0 | 57.1% | 99.3% |
| 7 |
Chicago Bulls
Jimmy Butler is out for a few weeks, so the Bulls are doomed, right? Wrong. The Bulls bounced back from a five-game losing streak by taking down the Raptors and whatever the Lakers are supposed to be. Big reason for those two wins? Derrick Rose! He's 20-of-35 from the field in his last two games and averaged 25 points, six assists, and five rebounds. All the Bulls need to not lose ground is for the 2011 Rose to stay here.
| 57.9% | 45.9 | 40.0% | 96.2% |
| 8 |
Los Angeles Clippers
The solution for Doc Rivers during these trying Clippers times was to bring Jeff Green to his team and ship Lance Stephenson out (with a first-round pick). Unfortunately for Green, he gets overly scrutinized for what he never ended up being, instead of being credited for what he is. He's a role player. He's a decent role player. That's all the Clippers need him to be. Play a little defense. Hit a few shots. Don't be a hero.
| 57.8% | 51.6 | 51.9% | 99.8% |
| 9 |
Toronto Raptors
All season, I've enjoyed this Raptors team while cautiously wondering what will happen to them if their free throw reliant offense doesn't get calls in the postseason. Maybe that's not going to be such a big deal. When they shoot 26 or fewer free throws in a game, they're 19-10. When they shoot 27 or more, they're 17-8. Hopefully, they're just good no matter what in the postseason this year.
| 57.1% | 53.2 | 54.7% | 100% |
| 10 |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks fell five spots from last week after losses to the Heat and Bucks, which seems overly harsh, but the teams moving up above them are surging when the Hawks simply aren't. It's not going to get any easier for them either. Their next four games include two against the Warriors, and one each against the Bulls and Hornets. Hawks took a risk in not blowing it up at the deadline and the struggle may be real with them.
| 54.6% | 44.2 | 47.3% | 89.3% |
| 11 |
Detroit Pistons
It's tough not getting the Donatas Motiejunas trade to go through after being voided due to a physical issue, but I love the moves made and attempted at the deadline by Stan Van Gundy and Jeff Bower. The Tobias Harris move is a great "gamble" because they weren't going to get a player that good in free agency without giving Ryan Anderson $20 million per season.
| 54.2% | 40.7 | 50.0% | 45.4% |
| 12 |
Miami Heat
For the second straight year, we have a Chris Bosh scare with blood clots, and you can't help but wonder if this is going to derail or completely end his career. Maybe that's a bit dramatic to jump to, but he's been such an important player and a Hall of Fame level guy that you'd hate to see him go out like this. Obviously most important is his health. Thoughts and prayers to one of the best guys in the NBA.
| 53.3% | 44.8 | 51.9%Â | 92.9% |
| 13 |
Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz are one of only six teams with a positive point differential on the season, and yet they're currently a half game out of the No. 8 seed in the West. I, along with SportsLine, still believe in them, but they have to figure out how to hold double-digit leads and close out tight games. The loss to Portland this weekend was brutal, because now the Blazers hold a tiebreaker over the Jazz no matter what happens.
| 51.3% | 40.1 | 51.9% | 58.7% |
| 14 |
Indiana Pacers
Are we all still waiting for Paul George to return to form? His return from the broken leg last season was such a fun story in the first month, and since December 1, he just hasn't been very accurate with his shot. In those 39 games, he's still under 40 percent from the field (38.9 percent) and his 3-point shooting is about league average (35.1 percent). How much better does he need to play to make the Pacers a threat in the playoffs?
| 50.4% | 44.3 | 51.9% | 92.3% |
| 15 |
Memphis Grizzlies
I appreciate what the Grizzlies have decided to do. When Marc Gasol went down with his foot injury, I imagine Chris Wallace and company popped in the Blu-Ray for any of the Expendables movies, and thought, "We can build this." Z-Bo, Tony Allen, Matt Barnes, P.J. Hairston, Chris Andersen, and now Lance Stephenson. This can only end well. I can't foresee how this backfires.
| 48.3% | 46.1 | 49.1% | 99.4% |
| 16 |
Dallas Mavericks
Dirk Nowitzki passed the 29,000-point threshold this weekend, which makes him just the sixth player to ever do that. From age 34 to 37 -- when he was supposed to be rapidly declining -- Dirk has scored the eighth most points in NBA history for that span while playing a significantly lower total of minutes. For players from 34-37, he's 30th in minutes played. He's a professional bucket-getter.
| 48.2% | 41.7 | 54.4% | 86.4% |
| 17 |
New Orleans Pelicans
It's imperative to mention the 59-20 game that Anthony Davis had on Sunday against the Detroit Pistons. Just the third 50-20 game of the past 30-plus years, and he was one point away from the second 60-20 game in that same time frame. Chris Webber had 51-26 in an overtime loss in 2001. Shaq had 61-23 in a win in 2000. Imagine the year we'd be talking about with The Brow if his team were good.
| 47.1% | 34.3 | 41.8% | 2.0% |
| 18 |
Houston Rockets
I decided last week that I couldn't handle caring about this apathetic bunch anymore and I'd do quick reviews of Freddie Prinze, Jr. movies, so here goes. I Still Know What You Did Last Summer: aside from his character stalking Jennifer Love Hewitt for 100 minutes, Freddie's attempt at emoting like a human suffered quite a bit. I'm still not sure if he was the real villain in it -- the killer without a hook.
| 46.0% | 39.4 | 42.9% | 54.8% |
| 19 |
Charlotte Hornets
Was trying to figure out if the Hornets could get much for their available assets to make up for the MKG injury, and somehow Rich Cho flips P.J. Hairston for Courtney Lee. This is a brilliant pickup for the Hornets, because Lee will fit in easily with his former assistant coach Steve Clifford's plan. They move up two spots and should keep climbing the Power Ratings.
| 44.8% | 41.9 | 51.9% | 67.8% |
| 20 |
Washington Wizards
Looked like the Wizards were taking their post All-Star break backs against the wall mentality seriously opening with big wins over the Jazz and Pistons. Faltering against the Heat on the third of a back-to-back-to-back wasn't ideal, but it was pretty easy to understand. They were just exhausted. Very easy schedule over next six should get them back to .500 and back in the East mix.
| 44.1% | 38.3 | 51.9% | 14.8% |
| 21 |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks kept calling the Wolves about Ricky Rubio at the trade deadline and the Wolves kept saying the starting asking price was Khris Middleton. That's not going to happen, but it shows you just how much faith the Bucks have in Michael Carter-Williams moving forward. He didn't have the same potential, but you wonder if he'd be better off in the same role and mentality as post-graphic knee injury Shaun Livingston.
| 43.0% | 34.8 | 51.8% | 1.0% |
| 22 |
Orlando Magic
It's still amazing to remember the Magic were six games over .500 when the calendar turned to January. Since then, they're 12 games under .500 in those 22 games. You would think that would lead to seeing what the younger guys can do, right? No, they acquired Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova. This will probably limit the minutes of Mario Hezonja the rest of the season. That's as disappointing as their 2016 record.
| 42.7% | 35.4 | 56.6% | 1.0% |
| 23 |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings almost fired George Karl again before they decided to keep him and essentially fire their offensive assistant coach. Then, in an effort to embrace Karl's up-tempo style, they were going to acquire Pau Gasol? 36-year old Pau Gasol? At a certain point, you can't help but feel sorry for them. We'll keep laughing right now, but it'll soon turn into pity laughter.
| 40.7% | 34.5 | 45.3% | 2.8% |
| 24 |
Denver Nuggets
He's still working his way back from injury, but Jusuf Nurkic's 35.8 percent from the field is alarming. It doesn't mean he's broken. His per-minute production is still excellent from a scoring, rebounding, and blocking standpoint. But how is he possibly 42 percent from 0-3 feet? Did he Freaky Friday himself with Ricky Rubio? Let's make Jusuf Nurkic great again.
| 38.9% | 32.9 | 55.6% | 0.3% |
| 25 |
New York Knicks
I don't know how I'm supposed to concentrate on writing something insightful on the Knicks when this Kurt Rambis news is out there. I'm not going to say what it is but just Google it for yourself. Actually, don't Google it at work. That's not a good idea for keeping your employment. Or if you do, just claim your computer was hacked. Works every time.
| 38.5% | 33.2 | 52.6% | 0.1% |
| 26 |
Brooklyn Nets
It's pretty interesting that the Nets pick that has been viewed as this hallowed asset for the Celtics was nearly moved for Jahlil Okafor at the deadline. Okafor is probably going to be a very nice player in this league, but you're likely not drafting someone better with this Nets pick. Does that say more about the upcoming draft or the competency of this Brooklyn team?
| 37.2% | 23.3 | 49.1% | 0.0% |
| 27 |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are up to 27th in the Power Ratings and seem to have left the Suns and Lakers in the dust. They could be battling back and forth with the Wolves and Nets for the rest of the season on creeping toward the good side of the bottom 5 teams. They're also nearly projected to have the second worst record with the Lakers overtaking them. No wonder Jeanie Buss wants her brother out.
| 37.2% | 17.7 | 48.2% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
It looked like the Wolves were starting to figure some things out before the break but then they dropped their first two games (one relatively close) after the week off. We'll get to see just how much the young guys are getting things with nine of the next 13 coming on the road. The Wolves have been solid on the road this season but their basic game plans should be exploited.
| 36.6% | 26.1 | 43.6% | 0.0% |
| 29 |
Los Angeles Lakers
Byron Scott claims he's moving D'Angelo Russell into the starting lineup for the rest of the season. Now why is it I don't believe Byron Scott will stick to this idea? Why does it feel like he'll do something stupid and claim Russell broke his trust two weeks from now and at least briefly move him back to the bench? Why does Scott seem like a Key and Peele character all the time?
| 33.8% | 18.7 | 47.4% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Phoenix Suns
The biggest disappointment of this move of Devin Booker into the starting lineup is his shooting has fallen way off in that move. He went from shooting 62.2 percent from deep as a reserve to shooting 32.4 percent from deep as a starter. There's some noise in that stat but it's a significant fall. The good news is he looks like a bit of a playmaker. He went from 1.9 assists per 36 minutes to 3.1.
| 32.4% | 22.2 | 39.3% | 0.0% |
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