Power Ratings: Playoff teams starting to emerge
We finally got the first loss of the season to the Golden State Warriors out of the way, so we no longer have to entertain the idea of an outside chance they go 82-0.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
It was never a threat because you can't even do that in video games. I once had a team built that went 80-2 in the regular season (and somehow lost in the second round of the playoffs), but even that stretched the realm of digital possibilities.
Now we get to reassess which teams are legitimate threats. The Warriors look mortal for the first time all season, and even though it wouldn't shock us to see them rattle off another 20-game streak at some point, the rest of the top teams look to be rounding into scary form.
The San Antonio Spurs are just four games behind the Warriors, the Cleveland Cavaliers are getting their starting backcourt to return from injury, and the Oklahoma City Thunder have been playing much improved basketball as of late.
The Warriors have real challengers and we still haven't seen them take on those challengers yet this season. The blueprint for taking down the Warriors still requires quite a bit of fortune, but that's on a nightly basis in a random NBA schedule.
What happens when you can game plan for them in a seven-game series? Does that make the rest of the league fear the Warriors more or less?
Maybe the craziest thing to take away from the Warriors so far outside of the 24-0 start? If you counted their single-digit wins as losses, the Warriors would still have fourth best record in the West at 15-10.
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have fallen to 24-1! The Warriors have fallen to 24-1! That means we can stop comparing them to the 1995-96 Bulls who won 72 games, right? Not exactly. The Bulls were 23-2 after 25 games. The Warriors are still ahead of schedule. SportsLine has them at 65 percent chance to win 72 or more and 51 percent to win 73 or more. Next benchmark for the Dubs is 44 games. Bulls were 41-3.
| 80.3% | 71.2 | 66.7% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
As dominant as the Warriors have been, the Spurs are just 2.1 points per 100 possessions behind them in net rating. Their defense is historic and nobody can really get any kind of flow against them. Want to look at traditional stats? The Spurs have allowed an opponent to hit 100 (2-3) just five times so far. Advanced stats? They are tied for fourth best defensive rating of all-time and have the best since 1975.
| 69.1% | 60.8 | 64.0% | 100% |
| 3 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder leapfrog the Cavaliers to take the No. 3 spot on our Power Ratings. Despite the East looking better this season and having a better first month, the West still dominates the top of the league and this helps prove that. Thunder are still bad ATS at 41.7 percent, but it improved last week. Thunder own the third best net rating, as they're starting to become hard to handle.
| 69.0% | 55.8 | 41.7% | 100% |
| 4 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs fall here but I'm not sure we should shed too many tears for them because we're headed toward a Cleveland explosion. Iman Shumpert returned this weekend and Kyrie Irving is back any day now. The Cavs are whole again. That means we can take notice of the dominance that should begin any day now and as they try to regain form that had them go 34-9 over their final 43 games. 34-9! The Warriors would laugh at such failure but it's great to everybody else.
| 67.4% | 53.5 | 35.0% | 100% |
| 5 |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics nearly took down the Warriors one day before Golden State lost. Had that happened, there would have been so much chest-thumping in Beantown that it would sound like the final competition in Drumline. Instead, they just missed out and have to settle for still being inexplicably fifth in these ratings. Unhand this computer, Brad Stevens!
| 58.7% | 50.0 | 60.9% | 98.9% |
| 6 |
Atlanta Hawks
Hawks jump the Clippers in the ratings this week, which means the East takes the next three spots after the West dominates the top 3. It's hard to know how much to buy into this Hawks team come postseason time. They're tied with the Pistons for the 8-seed, and can't seem to win on the road like we saw last season. Neutral site loves them but the road isn't cooperating yet.
| 58.4% | 49.0 | 45.8% | 98.2% |
| 7 |
Los Angeles Clippers
Offense is down in the NBA this season, but offense is way down for the Clippers. They had the best offense in the NBA last season when they posted a 109.8. They were slightly better than the Warriors. They've dropped six points and five spots in offensive rating so far. The bench has names but those names are currently attached to bad shooting numbers.
| 57.4% | 46.9 | Â 36.4% | 97.8% |
| 8 |
Chicago Bulls
Nobody is worse against the spread than the Bulls. They're tied with the Lakers at just 33.3 percent ATS and it makes you wonder how much of this success has been fool's gold. This can go one of two ways. They can end up showing these wins were fraudulent by falling apart soon or the wins can carry their confidence as they learn the new system. Something has to give though.
| 57.2% | 49.1 | 33.3% | 97.2% |
| 9 |
Toronto Raptors
Grizzlies falling two spots means the Raptors get to move up a spot to firm up their top 10 placement in this rating. Only three teams have been better against the spread than Toronto, and the loss of Jonas Valanciunas hasn't affected them much at all. You know how Raptors broadcasts were hammering to vote for Kyle Lowry a year ago? With the way he's playing now, it'll be even more palatable this season.
| 55.8% | 48.7 | 62.5% | 97.4% |
| 10 |
Memphis Grizzlies
Last time we checked in on Memphis, we were talking zombie grizzlies because they had won 9 of 12 games. And now? Turns out it's pretty easy to defeat zombie grizzlies. This would not make a good Dawn of the Dead. They lost 3 of 4 against good competition and now we're wondering if we see organizational changes soon. They're not doomed but they're in danger.
| 51.9% | 44.2 | 41.7% | 92.3% |
| 11 |
Phoenix Suns
All the talk about how poorly the Suns were playing in close games may have been premature. They went 3-1 this past week with back-to-back close victories over the Bulls and Magic. We're still not sure how good they are though and is Markieff Morris going to end up being a distraction soon? Will he be a saboteur, will he be a team player, or will he get dealt? Still so many questions in the desert.
| 51.9% | 40.0 | 48.0% | 60.6% |
| 12 |
Detroit Pistons
While some teams are hitting the mat face first faster than a Conor McGregor opponent, the Pistons have been bobbing and weaving all season. You can't get rid of them and they just keep finding ways to stay in the picture. They're good against the spread and have a very good shot at the postseason. This is all happening while having the seventh worst effective field goal percentage. What happens if they start making shots?
| 51.0% | 43.1 | 56.0%Â | 69.7% |
| 13 |
Utah Jazz
Jazz jump three spots in the ratings as their roller coaster season in this space continues. They went 1-3 and still jumped up because two of those losses were close affairs to OKC. They're badly missing Rudy Gobert though. They've had the seventh worst defense in the league since Gobert sprained his MCL. The offense is better but the balance is missing.
| 50.6% | 40.2 | 61.9% | 61.2% |
| 14 |
Indiana Pacers
Pacers drop three spots because they have hit a rough patch as of late. The season isn't quite as bright as the dyed hair on the top of George Hill's dome. They've lost four of five and they're not all great losses. Perhaps their defense was smoke and mirrors? It's been really bad for two weeks, which is shocking considering Jordan Hill plays so much (please convert this into sarcasm font if we have one).
| 50.3% | 44.9 | 59.1% | 85.2% |
| 15 |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks beat the Warriors and you would've thought they won the NBA championship. When you elicit that kind of reaction, that's how you know your season is a success. Maybe this will jumpstart the Bucks though. This was the first time the defense looked anything close to last season. They need their identity back, otherwise there will be no deer worthy of fear.
| 50.3% | 37.2 | 48.0% | 12.4% |
| 16 |
Houston Rockets
You're not going to trick me, Rockets. This five out of your last six success is not going to sway me. I gave up on you during the loss to the Nets because I just can't be hurt anymore. I can't keep buying into you because I want it more than you do. I have to protect myself. It's not you; it's me. I mean, it's definitely you but it's also me.
| 49.7% | 40.3 | 37.5% | 64.6% |
| 17 |
Dallas Mavericks
I have no idea what to do with this Mavs team so them being thrown in the middle of these ratings makes sense to me. Computer projects them for a below .500 record, which they may have once December is over. Their next eight games will probably help us gauge just how seriously to take them. Still, take them against the spread. Sneaky good pick this season.
| 48.3% | 40.8 | 58.3% | 69.4% |
| 18 |
Portland Trail Blazers
The computer has loved the Blazers around this spot all season and after being down recently, it's back to loving them again. They jumped the Heat, Wizards, Hornets and Magic. Those teams are better than Portland, but the computer can't help whom it falls in love with, right? Unless anti-virus software fixes that kind of thing?
| 47.6% | 38.6 | 52.0% | 46.1% |
| 19 |
Miami Heat
Miami is still projected at about a .500 record, but the real intriguing thing is the mounting frustration for Hassan Whiteside. He's posting and deleting pics of caged lions on Instagram when he doesn't get run in the fourth quarter. His attitude in a big contract year was always going to be the litmus test for this team. Which veteran is going to rein him in?
| 47.4% | 41.5 | 42.9% | 50.8% |
| 20 |
Washington Wizards
Bradley Beal is out for at least two weeks with a stress reaction for the fourth straight season. That kind of sums up what the Wizards are right now. The talent is there and the production is there. But their true progress keeps getting interrupted by the same types of problems each season. Now we're worried about whether or not they can make the postseason.
| 46.6% | 37.8 | 50.0% | 17.1% |
| 21 |
Charlotte Hornets
Give the Hornets some respect! They're fifth in offense. They're sixth in defense. They're fourth in net rating. And yet the computer doesn't buy into them at all. Does it expect big regressions from Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum? Should the computer be worried about the knowledge of Spencer Hawes telling Jeremy Lin how to do his hair each game? What is the issue here?
| 46.2% | 42.0 | 59.1% | 55.4% |
| 22 |
Orlando Magic
Magic hold the top ATS percentage one quarter of the way through the season and even though they've tailed off since their hot start, they're still tops in the league. They're the last team with even semi-relevant playoff odds for this season, but they're going to have start making shots regularly before they go from bothersome to someone to worry about.
| 46.0% | 38.0 | 68.2% | 16.9% |
| 23 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Get your pitchforks and torches out because the fans are fed up with Sam Mitchell. They don't like the offense. They don't like the rotations. They don't like how the young guys are being used. Perhaps the good start to the season skewed expectations. It's still a team with three 20-year olds in its rotation. Tough to win but easy to learn that way.
| 42.8% | 31.6 | 45.5% | 2.2% |
| 24 |
Sacramento Kings
While Kings' management and ownership deal with the horrendous actions by Rajon Rondo and his apology that doesn't make any sense, the trainers have to find a way to make sure DeMarcus Cousins doesn't miss anymore games. They're 8-8 when the big man plays and they're just 1-7 when he's out. They're barely an NBA team without him but they're quite dangerous with him.
| 41.6% | 33.4 | 45.8% | 5.3% |
| 25 |
New York Knicks
This road stretch by the Knicks confirmed the reasons why SportsLine wasn't buying the Knicks all along. Four road games out of their last five and they barely squeaked by with one victory. Carmelo Anthony wants to play faster but can you play him at the four and Kristaps at the five? Is that enough defense to go around? Is prime Gary Payton still available?
| 40.7% | 32.2 | 56.0% | 0.9% |
| 26 |
New Orleans Pelicans
This wasn't supposed to be a coronation for the Pelicans this year, but we were all expected Anthony Davis to throw his name into the MVP race. Instead, we're currently sitting with them holding a 0.3 percent chance at making the postseason. If you want to know how critical team health and depth are in the NBA, here is your poster child.
| 40.6% | 28.8 | 34.8% | 0.3% |
| 27 |
Brooklyn Nets
You know who is unbelievably scrappy? The Brooklyn Nets! Yes, those Brooklyn Nets! They're 60.9 percent against the spread this season. And they pushed the Warriors in two close games. Part of the reason is the spreads have been insulting to real NBA teams, but they're at least making the bookmakers re-evaluate the lines they set for the Nets.
| 36.6% | 28.9 | 60.9% | 0.1% |
| 28 |
Denver Nuggets
Emmanuel Mudiay is currently out with a sprained ankle. If this becomes a serious stretch of games missed by Mudiay, I'm not sure there's a reason for me to tune into their games. Not trying to be mean but not Jusif Nurkic and no Mudiay makes it hard to view. Maybe Michael Malone's crazy bearded look can carry their viewership?
| 31.5% | 27.6 | 45.5% | 0.1% |
| 29 |
Los Angeles Lakers
D'Angelo Russell finally had a couple of nice games and all it took was Kobe Bryant instructing Byron Scott to play the young guys during a tight game in Minnesota. At this point, we should lobby the league to allow player/coaches again so we can at least feel better about the Lakers' sidelines.
| 29.2% | 17.3 | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Philadelphia 76ers
Jerry Colangelo is now keeping an eye on Sam Hinkie, much like your teacher would do when you sat in the back of the classroom, made jokes during tests, and forced them to come view the test-taking period from the back of the room. But at least they got Kendall Marshall back? He should keep them from the all-time worst record?
| 26.2% | 15.2 | 45.8% | 0.0% |
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