Power Ratings: Playoff sleepers becoming clear
The last full week of the 2015-16 NBA season is upon us and we have a lot of jumbled teams to figure out in both the East and the West.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
In the Eastern Conference, we think we know the final eight teams that will make the postseason. I'm not sure anybody believes the Chicago Bulls will overtake the Indiana Pacers or Detroit Pistons, but it's technically still possible.
But the race for the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds between the Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks, Miami Heat, and Charlotte Hornets is changing wildly with each win and loss from the group.
In the Western Conference, we're not sure of the eight teams just quite yet, but Nos. 5-9 is completely up for grabs.
The Memphis Grizzlies are falling big time, the Portland Trail Blazers are pouncing on the opportunity at the No. 5 seed, and the trio of the Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks, and Houston Rockets are all fighting for those final two spots.
But what if the Grizzlies lose out? Would anybody blame them with their injuries and number of players left?
Who gets the short straw and ends up playing the Golden State Warriors or San Antonio Spurs in the first-round? How is it that facing the Oklahoma City Thunder feels like a blessing?
We need the final eight days of the season to provide clarity.
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
Ruh roh. After a home loss to the Boston Celtics and a stunner Tuesday night against Minnesota, the Warriors now look like they might not reach 73 wins. At least, that's what SportsLine is conservatively projecting with the 72.0 wins. What's funny is in some ways falling short of 73 wins and "only" getting 72 wins or fewer would be looked at as a failure at this point. Chasing the record is making them look tired. What is the proper balance?
| 77.1% | 72.0 | 55.3% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
It's crazy to me that the Spurs set their franchise record for wins in a season this season. Somehow, 63 wins was their previous high, and while that's a lot of games to win for any team, it just felt like a.) they have done better than that before and b.) I can't believe it was set in 2005-06. Feels like they've been better.
| 70.5% | 67.8 | 55.8% | 100% |
| 3 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder sneak upto the No. 3 in the Power Ratings despite going full Thunder in their loss to the Houston Rockets on Sunday. It wasn't a collapse but it wasn't a satisfying way to lose a basketball game, even against a talented team on the road. Here's a weird stat: Thunder win percentage is 53.7 in games triggering clutch stats. Memphis? 61.9.
| 69.4% | 56.4 | 43.4% | 100% |
| 4 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Winning two of their final five games will lock up the top seed and really, they don't have to worry about a late push from the Raptors. So we know the Cavs are the best team in the East, both in spirit and in record. The question is whether or not they can be elite enough to destroy any small lingering doubts of this during the postseason. Or ... do they even need to?
| 68.0% | 58.6 | 48.0% | 100% |
| 5 |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have legitimately been playing like the second best team in the East for about a month or so, but the Raptors have also been conservative with their rotations, availability and energy during that time. Is it possible what the Hawks have been building is better than the Raptors flipping the switch back on in the postseason? Or do the Hawks have too much to prove in the postseason?
| 61.9% | 48.2 | 51.3% | 100% |
| 6 |
Los Angeles Clippers
Blake Griffin is finally back after the quad tendon and the broken hand and then the suspension for how the broken hand occurred. He spent a few minutes on the court and showed he's pretty rusty but still quite good. The question is how long will it take to work off the rust and can it be accomplished in a week and a half? If it doesn't, are they susceptible to a first-round upset against the Blazers?
| 60.4% | 52.5 | 50.0% | 100% |
| 7 |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics beat the Warriors in Oracle Arena and now you won't be able to hear anything coming out of Boston except for Eastern Conference championship expectations and assuming Kevin Durant will sign with this Celtics team in the offseason. It's not that those are unreasonable as much as the alternative is now dead to New Englanders.
| 56.9% | 48.2 | 52.6% | 100% |
| 8 |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have just one tough game left on their schedule. Beat the Mavericks in Dallas and then you coast against the Suns, Lakers, Wolves, and Kings with only the Minnesota game happening on the road. There is literally one reason the Rockets don't make the playoffs and it only has to do with their own apathetic attitude. Most gut-checks happen against good teams. Not for Houston.
| 56.9% | 41.6 | 44.2% | 83.5% |
| 9 |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are surging toward that No. 5 seed in the Western Conference and could have a huge showdown with the Clippers in Round 1 of the playoffs. Prepare yourself for a meme-fest if that's what happens. Those commercials with Chris Paul as the dad and Damian Lillard as the baby will run rampant over social media if we get a seven-game series between the two.
| 56.8% | 44.0 | 55.7% | 100% |
| 10 |
Miami Heat
Of the four jumbled teams in the East's Nos. 3-6 seed race, the Heat project as the worst on a neutral site. They have a decently tough schedule the rest of the way too. Home games to Detroit and Chicago, followed by a home-and-home against the Magic, and then at the Pistons and Celtics to close the year on a back-to-back. Home court advantage in the first-round may be pretty tough to corral.
| 55.5% | 47.4 | 51.3%Â | 100% |
| 11 |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs rollercoaster continues to be up and down as they hunt down a West playoff berth. They fell 10 spots last week and looked to be on the way out. Now, they're back on the rise this week and being carried by JJ Barea, your Western Conference player of the week. Over his last four games, Barea is averaging 23.5/6.8/3.0 while shooting 52.1 percent FG and 48 percent 3FG. Mavs are 4-0 in those games.
| 54.4% | 41.7 | 54.0% | 77.8% |
| 12 |
Toronto Raptors
It's interesting the Raptors seem to be hands down the second best team in the East, and yet SportsLine has them rated behind the Hawks and the Celtics. The Raptors have won just four of their last seven games as they start resting for the playoffs, which is probably the reason they've fallen a bit. They should be fine for the postseason though ... right?
| 54.3% | 54.9 | 54.0% | 100% |
| 13 |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets move up two spots in the Power Ratings this week, as they continue to fight for position in the East playoff seeding. After two straight wins against the Sixers last week, the Hornets were the No. 3 seed. After one loss to the Cavs to end the week, they had fallen to the No. 6 spot. Now they have to hope Nicolas Batum isn;t seriously hurt with his left knee, because that will be doom for them.
| 54.1% | 46.8 | 51.3% | 100% |
| 14 |
Detroit Pistons
If you're the Pistons and you're in position to not only make the playoffs but also move up to the No. 7 seed to face the Raptors, how giddy must you be in accomplishing it? This is probably a different Raptors team than we've seen in the playoffs the last two years, but if you're Stan Van Gundy, you want them to prove it to you in a seven-game series.
| 51.0% | 43.0 | 52.0% | 93.5% |
| 15 |
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls fall this week and look to be in need of a miracle in order to make the postseason. SportsLine has their playoff odds at 6.0 percent with four games left and two games behind the Pacers and Pistons for a playoff spot in the East. At this point, do you even want to watch this Bulls team in the playoffs? Sure, they'd win the first game against LeBron because they always do, but then what?
| 50.9% | 41.3 | 42.3% | 6.0% |
| 16 |
Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz are surging at the right time as they push for the postseason and winning 10 of the past 13 games moves them up this week. The good news for them is they're expecting to get Alec Burks back any game now and he should add a boost to their second unit. It also allows the Jazz to run the triple-wing lineup with Gobert-Favors-Hayward-Hood-Burks. That lineup is a plus-14.8 points per 100 possessions this season.
| 50.0% | 41.2 | 52.0% | 43.2% |
| 17 |
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers fall and their end-of-game play is getting more and more concerning. In theory, they should be pretty good in clutch situations. They have three guys (Paul George, Monta Ellis, and George Hill) capable of hitting big shots. And yet, they seem to throw the ball away in key moments more than anybody. They're unlikely to miss the playoffs but with their play as of late, does it feel like they're going to matter in the postseason?
| 49.5% | 43.6 | 48.7% | 97.5% |
| 18 |
Milwaukee Bucks
This season has been a bit of a disaster for the Bucks and they have to recalibrate to figure out what their future core looks like. As of right now, it sounds like Giannis Antetokounmpo is a lock to be their point guard next season. Is this actually a good idea or is this riding high on the coattails of superb play when nobody takes the Bucks seriously anymore?
| 48.4% | 34.1 | 50.7% | 0.0% |
| 19 |
Washington Wizards
It's a good thing the Wizards won't end up making the playoffs. Had they made the playoffs and even put up a fight in the first round, they could've tricked themselves into thinking the roster and situation is good enough. Missing the postseason altogether should force some changes in the roster and on the sidelines. Loyalty is overrated, Ted Leonsis.
| 48.2% | 39.6 | 50.7% | 3.0% |
| 20 |
Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic are reportedly done trying to build heavily through the draft and want to go out and get a big name free agent. Maybe they can recreate a situation like they had in the early 2000s when they signed Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill. There is no player like that outside of Kevin Durant and he's not going there. Please don't sign Dwight Howard back there. It's a bad idea for both parties.
| 48.1% | 35.3 | 56.6% | 0.0% |
| 21 |
New York Knicks
Now that the season is over for them and we're just wondering whether their pick ends up in Denver or Toronto, the Knicks have finally convinced SportsLine they should move up in the Power Ratings. They're up three spots despite going 1-3 this week and 8-21 over their last 29 games. Maybe this is grading on a curve because of Kurt Rambis as coach?
| 47.0% | 32.8 | 53.9% | 0.0% |
| 22 |
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are in the same boat as the Knicks. They've moved up this week even though they went 1-3 with their only victory coming against the Grizzlies. The Nuggets have been more competitive than the bookmakers have assumed they'd be. Denver is tied for seventh in the NBA against the spread. Michael Malone has done a great job so far.
| 46.7% | 33.0 | 52.6% | 0.0% |
| 23 |
Memphis Grizzlies
I don't know what we're supposed to even say about this Grizzlies team, or what's left of it at this point. They're going to have 28 players play for them this season. They're left with Zach Randolph and Lance Stephenson as their best 1-2 punch. Matt Barnes is posting on Instagram more than he's contributing to what's left of this rotation.
| 41.1% | 42.7 | 52.6% | 95.6% |
| 24 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
I'm not sure if you've ever heard this before, but it's been brought to my attention that the Wolves had the chance to draft Steph Curry back in 2009 and passed on him twice. For some reason this is never brought up, like saying Kyle Korver looks like Ashton Kutcher. Note to editors: put this blurb in sarcasm font, please.
| 38.8% | 27.6 | 46.8% | 0.0% |
| 25 |
Brooklyn Nets
Brook Lopez is shut down for the season. Thaddeus Young is shut down for the season. Unless you're a masochist who likes to watch Thomas Robinson prove over and over taking him as the fifth pick was a big mistake, you don't have much left to watch this season. At least Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is back! He managed to block a shot with his wrist this weekend. He can leap.
| 38.4% | 22.8 | 48.7% | 0.0% |
| 26 |
Sacramento Kings
I think we can all agree the Kings should and will fire George Karl as soon as the season is done. The good news is the Kings finally broke the 30-win barrier. The bad news is everything else. So what's the worst thing Karl could do to the Kings? Coach them out of their first-round pick. Top 10 protected and Kings (8th) are two games ahead of Orlando for 11th in the lottery standings.
| 37.8% | 32.7 | 47.4% | 0.0% |
| 27 |
Philadelphia 76ers
We're really close to tying this all-time record for worst record in an 82-game season. The Sixers have dropped 12 straight games and are stuck on nine wins. They have a very favorable schedule with New Orleans, New York, and Milwaukee as three of their final five games. SportsLine believes they'll get to 10 wins and maybe even snag an 11th. I think they're dropping the final five and failing to reach double digits.
| 32.2% | 11.1 | 46.8% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Phoenix Suns
The Boston Celtics are dying for the Suns to go on a mini-run here to end the season. They have three straight road games (Atlanta, Houston, and New Orleans) before final home games against Sacramento and the Clips. They're a game ahead of Brooklyn in the tanking standings, which means Boston could have top 3 odds at a top 3 pick. Shine brightly, Phoenix.
| 31.4% | 21.2 | 43.6% | 0.0% |
| 29 |
New Orleans Pelicans
There is a chance the Pelicans' lottery shots of getting a top 6 pick are ruined by Luke Babbitt's good play. Seriously. He's scored 43 points over the last two games, which were both wins, and now the Pelicans are just a game ahead of New York (which goes to Denver) in the tanking standings. Luke Babbitt is hurting the Pelicans by playing well. This league is unreal.
| 23.0% | 30.9 | 44.2% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Los Angeles Lakers
I'm not sure if any of us could have seen this coming. I'm not talking about the Lakers being awful. That was easy to predict. I'm talking about a situation in which the Lakers completely get embarrassed by a scandal and Nick Young comes out of it as a sympathetic figure. D'Angelo Russell managed to make that happen somehow. The NBA will always keep you on your toes.
| 21.5% | 17.1 | 44.2% | 0.0% |
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