Power Ratings: Pacers proving to be very prolific
We're two months into the 2015-16 season and about to turn the calendar to 2016.
With the New Year right around the corner, that means New Year's resolutions are going to be made and probably not kept.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
Since we're all about projecting forward to the end of the regular season with the Power Ratings, instead of making some resolutions for each team and hoping they keep them, we're going to project the New Year's resolutions that did or didn't get kept for each team in this space.
For certain teams like the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs, that can be a pretty positive projection. They might be the two best teams in the NBA by season's end and they'll have healthy marches toward the NBA championship dancing around in their heads.
For other teams like the Washington Wizards, Milwaukee Bucks or Minnesota Timberwolves, there might be a lot of sadness in projecting their failed resolutions.
As a way to kick this off, I'd like to make my own resolution.
I'm going to stop giving "good" teams with inconsistent effort the benefit of the doubt.
That means Houston, Washington and Memphis are probably going to be dead to me the rest of the season and I think I can hold onto this resolution.
The act of starting to come around on them, only to see them overmatched the next night when you'd least expect it, is too much of a roller coaster. The Power Ratings may believe in them at some point, but I'm out.
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors' resolution they were able to uphold is to make sure to take the littlest things personally in order to manufacture the focus needed to attack the 72-10 record of the Bulls. That isn't a bad thing either. You can call them petty for it, but it takes extreme pettiness to be able to retain that focus and determination all year.
| 79.7% | 71.5 | 64.3% | 100% |
| 2 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder jump up to the No. 2 spot this week, but they're not going to keep that long-term when they can't keep their resolution of being able to solve their shooting guard problem. Not enough minutes to Anthony Morrow. Too many minutes to Andre Roberson. And Dion Waiters is fourth on the team in minutes. This is like going to the gym in the New Year to have a place to eat your fast food.
| 70.2% | 56.5 | 41.9% | 100% |
| 3 |
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs' resolution they're definitely keeping is to not play too many players too many minutes, never overextend yourself to lose sight of the championship goal, and to stick to the program of making sure every player is maximized in their decision-making. It's boring. It's typical. It's amazing. They are your standard for keeping resolutions.
| 69.8% | 61.8 | 68.8% | 100% |
| 4 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
The resolution of working back Kyrie Irving to All-NBA levels is going to work. He's a stud on the court and he should be back to cooking defenders in no time. The resolution to keep Kevin Love involved during this time? It's the equivalent of your friend saying he's cutting out soda in the New Year as he drinks Jack and Cokes throughout New Year's Eve celebrations.
| 67.5% | 56.4 | 42.9% | 100% |
| 5 |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks' resolution of finding ways to get by with Kent Bazemore over Thabo Sefolosha is not going to hold. The main lineup with Bazemore on the wing is a minus-6.1 per 100 possessions and a minus-13 in December. Replacing him with Thabo moves the lineup to a plus-7.3. Hawks won't Baze less but they should. Thabo is their answer on the wing.
| 62.3% | 52.3 | 50.0% | 99.8% |
| 6 |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics' resolution of being a defensive thorn in the side of the entire league is going to hold up better than most resolutions possibly could imagine. They're one of five teams with 60 percent or better success against the spread. There's no reason to believe this will change because they won't be dominant enough to face unreasonable spreads. They're a perfect play all season, as long as they're healthy.
| 57.6% | 48.7 | 60.0% | 96.7% |
| 7 |
Toronto Raptors
The resolution of holding on during injuries thanks to small ball excellence and then going on a run when Jonas Valanciunas comes back will work for them. Raptors are projected for just under 50 wins, but this will be the first season the franchise comes through on that accomplishment. We don't know if they're good in the playoffs, but they're good in the regular season.
| 56.2% | 49.3 | Â 56.7% | 97.7% |
| 8 |
Los Angeles Clippers
The resolution of getting the bench going will actually work for Doc Rivers and company. The key here is Blake Griffin's injury. It doesn't help the team short-term that he's out at least two weeks, but it allows Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson to get into more of a rhythm. Forces them to play Cole Aldrich as well. This is big for getting role players to contribute consistently.
| 55.2% | 45.1 | 39.3% | 96.6% |
| 9 |
Chicago Bulls
The resolution of getting this team into the top half of the league in offensive rating is not going to happen. The Bulls underperform expectations (second worst ATS) and the offense is lame because they have one guy who can attack off the dribble (Jimmy Butler). They're 27th in offense. But they'll continue to squeak by because their defense is fifth best and that should hold.
| 54.7% | 47.2 | 35.7% | 90.6% |
| 10 |
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies' resolution to not get destroyed in their losses will actually hold, even though I'm giving up on them turning it around. They still have the worst net rating in losses (minus-17.7) and at a certain point, you can't keep blaming losing by 50 to the Warriors. Even though I'm not buying a Grizzaissance, this team will lose much closer games in the New Year.
| 53.2% | 43.9 | 43.8% | 94.3% |
| 11 |
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers' resolution to keep smothering teams with three-point accuracy is going to hold. I don't know how good this makes them, but they're the fourth most accurate three-point shooting team and it leads to them having the sixth-highest net rating in wins. Their offense is like a rip tide. You can avoid it but once it gets you, you're struggling in the deep water.
| 51.5% | 44.8 | 55.2% | 80.2% |
| 12 |
Phoenix Suns
The Suns' resolution to find some consistency and success is already done before the New Year begins. They fired highly-regarded assistants, they're dangling Jeff Hornacek over a cliff, and Eric Bledsoe is out until the All-Star break. But changing out the assistant staff in-season is totally going to fix everything. I really don't agree with SportsLine's view of them right now. This team should plummet.
| 51.3% | 36.3 | 40.6%Â | 24.1% |
| 13 |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets' resolution of respecting the game more and giving consistent effort that makes you believe in them is going to fail as well. J.B. Bickerstaff said it best when he openly wondered how this team is so inconsistent. There just might be a lack of respect to the hard work it takes to follow the process of being a good team. This team may have heart, but it might not be in the right place -- like a poorly designed game of Operation.
| 51.2% | 40.5 | 40.6% | 73.2% |
| 14 |
Detroit Pistons
Andre Drummond's resolution of defending the rim better may not live up to expectations for the rest of this season. A week ago, Drummond was allowing 45.8 percent at the rim over his previous 12 games. In the three games since? 62.1 percent allowed at the rim. His inconsistency doesn't kill their defense, but it makes it harder for the perimeter guys to do their job effectively. He's maybe a year away from being lockdown there.
| 50.5% | 42.6 | 58.6% | 55.5% |
| 15 |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs' resolution of becoming an offensive juggernaut is going to work. They're currently tied for seventh with the Cavs after a December in which Dallas ranked fourth in offensive rating. They're shredding defenses from deep lately and as they continue to get healthier, the offense will only build consistency. Their resolution of being good enough defensively? Not sure yet.
| 49.8% | 42.7 | 60.0% | 89.2% |
| 16 |
Miami Heat
Heat's resolution of figuring out how to make a lineup with Chris Bosh their best lineup on the floor should come to fruition. Right now if you replace Bosh with Justise Winslow, the Heat go from plus-2.0 per 100 to plus 10.5 per 100. Swap Hassan Whiteside with Bosh and it drops to minus-12.3. Swap Luol Deng for Gerald Green and you get a plus-40.0 in just 23 minutes. Coach Spo will do more of that.
| 49.5% | 44.1 | 50.0% | 68.1% |
| 17 |
Utah Jazz
Utah's resolution to finally get healthy and make a run at the playoffs will work ... right? How many more injuries can this team take? Dante Exum is rehabbing an ACL. Rudy Gobert is rehabbing a sprained MCL. Alec Burks now has a fracture ankle. What else can go wrong? Thankfully for them, the bottom of the West is struggling something fierce, so they're right in this thing.
| 49.3% | 39.5 | 55.6% | 58.7% |
| 18 |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards dropped four spots this week, and that's indicative of their upcoming failed resolution at reclaiming what was supposed to make them dangerous this season. They don't have consistency and because of that, the next time they climb up the ratings, they'll only find themselves plummeting soon after. Wizards need a reset on this season.
| 48.7% | 41.0 | 53.6% | 37.5% |
| 19 |
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans can't come through on a resolution of making the playoffs after their terrible start to the season, but they will come through on the resolution of being a nightmare to play against the second half of the season. Playoff odds stand at just 14.4 percent, but they're climbing up the neutral site success. Anthony Davis and company are the guys to ruin your playoff hopes as you join them in the lottery.
| 48.5% | 35.0 | 40.0% | 14.4% |
| 20 |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers' resolution to remain a top 10 offense in the NBA will be tough to keep, but they will do it. They thrive on offensive rebounding giving them second chances, and they're pretty good at coming through on those second chances. Biggest competition for staying in the top 10 is scoring more efficiently than Charlotte, NOLA and Miami the rest of the season. Damian Lillard getting healthy will make it happen.
| 48.1% | 37.8 | 51.5% | 43.3% |
| 21 |
Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic's resolution to remain the best team against the spread this season will not happen, but they're still going to remain in the top 3. You can't keep chalking this up to their hot start either, although it certainly helps. They're consistently making things closer and the Spurs are probably the only lock to finish ahead of them, because that's what the Spurs do.
| 48.0% | 41.6 | 69.0% | 40.4% |
| 22 |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets' resolution to get some respect from SportsLine is going to fail and I have no idea why. For some reason, the computer refuses to buy into what Charlotte is doing, even though they're really good on both ends of the floor. If the Hornets haven't sold SportsLine on them by now, it's just not going to happen.
| 47.6% | 41.0 | 53.6% | 33.3% |
| 23 |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings' resolution of remaining in the playoff race all season is going to happen, even though SportsLine puts them at 5.6 percent chance of making the postseason. They're above .500 with DeMarcus Cousins playing this season and as long as he's healthy, they'll stay in the mix. This is more a war of attrition than actually being good, but it's a step up from the last few years.
| 43.1% | 33.5 | 46.7% | 5.6% |
| 24 |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks' resolution of figuring things out defensively is not going to work. Not with Greg Monroe so prominently involved in the defense. Not with Michael Carter-Williams being so prominently involved in everything. But the growth of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker will make this team tough on offense the rest of the way.
| 42.2% | 31.7 | 48.4% | 0.2% |
| 25 |
New York Knicks
The Knicks' resolution of Kristaps Porzingis remaining a basketball god and cult figure will be easy to keep. His play is phenomenal for the amount of experience he has and he's still growing into his skill set as a scorer. He can do everything out there. He is so much fun. He alone should move the Knicks up five spots in these Power Ratings.
| 38.1% | 32.0 | 56.3% | 0.2% |
| 26 |
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets resolution of not being so sad may actually come through. They've been way more competitive than we assumed they would be and that's even after Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Unless their pick wins the lottery, it would be shocking to see the Celtics end up with a top 5 pick from them. They may just settle for a top 7 pick, which is still devastating. OK, the Nets are still sad.
| 37.2% | 27.3 | 56.7% | 0.0% |
| 27 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves' resolution of making Karl-Anthony Towns the focal point of the offense the rest of the season will come through. They're not a good offense (18th), but the more comfortable he gets, the more comfortable Sam Mitchell will be pounding the ball into him. They're creating a superstar right now. The resolution of being a good defensive team is probably dead. They're 20th.
| 35.6% | 26.3 | 41.4% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets' resolution of a youth movement will look pretty good as long as Emmanuel Mudiay gets healthy soon. His ankle has been suspect and slowly healing, but he'll be exciting when he returns. The emergence of Nikola Jokic and the return of Jusuf Nurkic will give the Nuggets some second-half hope in the team's development.
| 34.3% | 30.1 | 46.7% | 0.6% |
| 29 |
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers' resolution of this secret tank job working out is going to be a raging success. Byron Scott has played us this entire time. Over his last five years coaching, his teams have ended up with an average draft position of like second. Some of that is lottery luck with Cleveland but a lot of it is him being so bad that the lottery odds remain in your favor. Congrats on keeping your pick.
| 28.6% | 17.9 | 35.5% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers' resolution of not setting the all-time record for worst season in NBA history will work out for them. They'll probably just end up tying the 82-game low of 9-73 instead of setting a brand new record that would rival the 7-59 Bobcats for the lowest winning percentage of all time. That's an accomplishment!
| 20.3% | 11.6 | 38.7% | 0.0% |
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