Power Ratings: Model not buying improved Knicks
We all know how great the Golden State Warriors have been.
Their unprecedented 22-0 start to the season has us asking insane questions about how long they can keep this streak going and whether or not it will actually end this season.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
These questions don't make any sense but neither does their start to the season, so we have to start finding new questions outside of our comfort zone.
When you flip it to the Eastern Conference, the question isn't about if anybody can stop the Warriors.
It's about if any team can stop the Cleveland Cavaliers from getting their rematch. We were supposed to get a better test between the Cavs and the Miami Heat this past weekend, but LeBron James was forced to sit by David Blatt and the result was a laugher of a win for Miami.
Looking at the Power Ratings this week, the Cavs haven't moved from their position, but the Heat did manage to drop despite wins over Cleveland and Oklahoma City while suffering a loss to a Boston Celtics team that SportsLine absolutely loves.
We want to see the drama of the Heat coming back after being left by LeBron to challenge them in the East, just because it's hard to think of a more provocative storyline in the East postseason than this.
The Heat lead the Eastern Conference in record but SportsLine's ratings don't reflect that in any way.
The answer is probably somewhere in the middle, but asking the question of whether or not this Miami team is a legitimate threat still brings some cloudy returns.
If the East is better this season, why does it still feel like a one-team race?
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors (22-0)
Steph Curry has a 70.7 percent true shooting percentage. To put this in perspective, only Tyson Chandler has ever had a higher true shooting percentage and that was 70.8 percent but in 22 games. Steph has already taken 89 more shots than Chandler did in 62 games that season. Highest TS for a guy taking 20 shots or more before this season was Kevin Durant at 63.5 percent. Curry is absurd.
| 81.0% | 72.2 | 68.2% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs (17-4)
The Spurs' defense has become other-worldly. Basketball-Reference has 10 teams with a defensive rating under 95 points in NBA history prior to this season. Nine of those teams did it in a period between 1973 and 1976. The other was the 2004 Spurs with a 94.1 defensive rating. This year's Spurs are giving up 94.7 points per 100 possessions. Is this the antidote to the Warriors' greatness?
| 69.5% | 60.9 | 61.9% | 100% |
| 3 |
Cleveland Cavaliers (13-7)
The return of Kyrie Irving is going to be important because this team is lethal on offense with him, LeBron James, and Kevin Love sharing the floor. But the return of Iman Shumpert may be more important for their balance. The Cavs are tied for 11th in defensive rating with four other teams. They need to separate themselves defensively and were six points per 100 possessions better with Shumpert.
| 68.3% | 54.9 | 35.0% | 99.9% |
| 4 |
Oklahoma City Thunder (12-8)
The Thunder are tied with the Cavs at 35 percent ATS and only the Rockets and Lakers are worse in that respect. There is no excuse for the Rockets (in many ways) and the Cavs have been injured. The Lakers are the Lakers. So why are the Thunder so subpar against the spread? Difference of 27 points in net rating when you put Dion Waiters with the starters over Kevin Durant, and their heavily used second unit is a minus-21.1 per 100 possessions. Yikes.
| 67.4% | 53.5 | 35.0% | 100% |
| 5 |
Boston Celtics (11-9)
At this point, I can only assume the Celtics are reenacting the movie "The Ref" with the Celtics as the kidnapping Dennis Leary and SportsLine as the kidnapped Kevin Spacey. Boston isn't bad but the idea that they're the fifth best team seems nefarious. Also, it would've been too easy to use "Celtic Pride" as the movie reference here, but Dennis Leary is a Massachusetts guy so it still has the connection.
| 59.0% | 48.9 | 55.0% | 97.6% |
| 6 |
Atlanta Hawks (13-9)
There are three reasons the Hawks are down to 12th in 3-point accuracy. Paul Millsap is struggling with his outside shot (30.8 percent), Dennis Schroeder is under 30 percent (please stop shooting), and Kyle Korver is a "pedestrian" 42.9 percent from deep. He flirted with 50 percent last season. The Hawks are still dangerous, but they need that boost from deep.
| 58.7% | 49.3 | 47.6% | 98.3% |
| 7 |
Chicago Bulls (11-6)
The Bulls hop up two spots from last week and are on the heels of the Celtics and Hawks for the second best projected team in the East. Can you imagine how good they'd be if they had a point guard? This team is a lot better on both ends of the floor when Rose isn't playing and he has 28 more shots taken than points scored. They probably can't wait for this to be done in 2017.
| 57.8% | 49.8 | Â 35.3% | 97.6% |
| 8 |
Los Angeles Clippers (11-9)
The Clippers drop two spots in the ratings, but they had two improvements from last week. Big weeks from Jamal Crawford and Lance Stephenson bumped them above a 50 percent true shooting percentage, leaving them with just three rotation players (Paul Pierce, Austin Rivers, Josh Smith) sub-50 percent. If this team gets any consistency from the bench, they're a lock for first-round home court advantage.
| 57.2% | 46.9 | 36.8% | 97.4% |
| 9 |
Memphis Grizzles (12-9)
When things go poorly for the Grizzlies, they become straight destitute. They've rebounded from the 3-6 start to win nine of their previous 12 games, but eight of their nine losses this season have been by double digits. It happened again this week with the Spurs blowing them out of the water. Net rating is typically an indicator of future success, but I'm not sure how you judge theirs (10th worst).
| 53.5% | 47.0 | 42.9% | 97.4% |
| 10 |
Toronto Raptors (12-9)
Only the Warriors and Magic are better against the spread than the Toronto Raptors, and the Raptors nearly took down the Warriors at home. Part of the reason is probably the insane shooting of Kyle Lowry. He has a true shooting of 59.3 percent, nearly three percent higher than his career best. If you thought the Raptors broadcast hit the "hashtag NBA ballot" nonsense hard before ...
| 53.0% | 44.4 | 65.0% | 80.4% |
| 11 |
Phoenix Suns (8-13)
Tyson Chandler is out with a hammy, Markieff Morris may get traded and just got a DNP-CD, and the team is 8-13. How in the world are the Suns 11th according to SportsLine?!? They're not even projected for a .500 season or better, but the idea of them on a neutral site is too good for Projection Model. Maybe this is skewed by that outdoor preseason game years ago?
| 52.8% | 39.4 | 47.6% | 52.6% |
| 12 |
Indiana Pacers (12-7)
Interesting to note the Pacers are projected to finish with more wins than Toronto, but the neutral site percentage is lower. Somehow, they have the sixth best defense in the NBA despite a big man rotation of Ian Mahinmi, Jordan Hill, and Lavoy Allen. As much (deserved) pub as Curry is getting, Paul George is making teams change their defensive schemes as well. Players marvel at how well he's shooting the ball.
| 52.6% | 45.9 | 63.2%Â | 89.2% |
| 13 |
Detroit Pistons (12-9)
The Pistons have won four straight with two of those wins coming against Houston and Phoenix, and they look to be taking back a little bit of the magic they had at the beginning of the season. Key for them, which is battling the neutral site percentage, is their dominance at home. 10th best net rating in the league at home and they're 8-2 there. It's what's keeping them afloat in the standings.
| 51.5% | 42.9 | 57.1% | 64.6% |
| 14 |
Milwaukee Bucks (8-13)
I'm trying to figure out why the Bucks would be so high according to SportsLine, but a team with the same record (Phoenix) is three spots higher. They still have a bottom 5 defense in the NBA and they get throttled on the road (only the Lakers are worse). So why the optimism? The computer has the internet and the internet loves Giannis Antetokounmpo.
| 51.5% | 37.6 | 42.9% | 14.1% |
| 15 |
Utah Jazz (9-9)
The Jazz are in a tough spot over the next couple of weeks as Rudy Gobert is out with an MCL sprain. SportsLine projects a healthy team at the end of the season though, so Utah moves up a spot from last week. Neutral site is killing the Jazz in the ratings, who are projected for more wins and higher playoff odds than Phoenix, but they're behind the Suns. They'll have to eclipse Phoenix somehow.
| 51.0% | 41.5 | 64.7% | 71.8% |
| 16 |
Houston Rockets (10-11)
There was a point in the Jazz-Rockets game in which Raymond Felton blocked Ty Lawson and Felton didn't even jump. He was flat-footed and still got his hand on top of the ball on a jumper. Lawson has to retire.
| 49.1% | 39.1 | 33.3% | 48.7% |
| 17 |
Dallas Mavericks (12-9)
The Mavs jump two spots from last week but SportsLine isn't buying into their 12-9 record. Wes Matthews hitting 10 3-pointers last game is an encouraging sign though. Nobody comes back from an Achilles' as the same player and he was shooting just 34.2/30.8 percent prior to the game. If he can become even an average shooter right now, the Mavs will be just fine.
| 48.9% | 41.7 | 61.9% | 74.1% |
| 18 |
Miami Heat (12-6)
This is some MAJOR disrespect by SportsLine toward the Heat. Miami has the best record in the Eastern Conference built off some stellar defense, and yet they're the ninth-rated team here. They're only 50 percent ATS and below 50 percent on neutral sites. Their playoff odds are good, but Hassan Whiteside will not be happy with where this rating is.
| 48.1% | 44.3 | 50.0% | 76.8% |
| 19 |
Portland Trail Blazers (9-12)
I have a theory on how Portland could be better. They have two dynamic guards and a stable of mobile big men. They should be way higher than 22nd in pace. This team is great offensively and bad defensively, but they don't have enough chances to make up for defensive lapses. They should be pushing off of misses and makes. Unleash hell, Stotts, and maybe you can jump three more spots.
| 46.8% | 39.1 | 52.4% | 48.0% |
| 20 |
Orlando Magic (11-9)
The Magic are still the best team against the spread in the NBA - even better than the Warriors, although they do end up having to cover entirely different spreads. Orlando still isn't getting a lot of SportsLine respect here. Since moving Victor Oladipo to the second unit, the Magic are 5-1. They are more balanced now, but they have to find guys who can hit jumpers.
| 46.4% | 39.2 | 68.4% | 26.0% |
| 21 |
Washington Wizards (8-10)
This is what we get for trusting Randy Wittman to be a forward-thinking coach. Was there ever any doubt this would be the case? I know we all picked the Wizards to thrive in this style, but you're not handing me a set of wrenches, asking me to build a rocket, and expecting good results. Do you even use wrenches to build a rocket? Probably big wrenches, right?
| 46.2% | 36.8 | 44.4% | 11.3% |
| 22 |
Charlotte Hornets (11-8)
Hornets should feel a bit of disrespect here as well. They're the fifth-best home team in the NBA and Steve Clifford's new style of offense is currently tied with Cleveland for fourth in the league. Question is can Kemba Walker keep this up? First 10 games he shot 38.9/32.4 while averaging 14.9 points. Last nine games, he's shooting 49/40.5 while averaging 20.6 points. Which is the real Kemba?
| 45.5% | 40.9 | 55.6% | 42.4% |
| 23 |
Minnesota Timberwolves (8-11)
Seeing such a drop-off in playoff odds from the Hornets in the East right above this slot to the Wolves in the West, makes you wonder just how different things would be for this franchise if re-zoned to the East. They need to get their act together at home. Just 2-8 (1-9 ATS), which makes their above 50 percent ATS overall extremely impressive.
| 43.6% | 32.7 | 52.6% | 4.6% |
| 24 |
New Orleans Pelicans (5-15)
It is almost unfathomable how bad this team is when Omer Asik is on the floor. He has no hands. He's supposed to be a defensive force, but the offense gets crushed when he's in the game. Good thing he only has 3.5 years of guaranteed money left on that new contract.
| 43.2% | 31.2 | 35.0% | 1.7% |
| 25 |
Sacramento Kings (7-15)
DeMarcus Cousins is comparing his game to words you can't say on here, and the Kings still can't find the proper continuity to get over the hump. It comes down to Cousins playing vs. Cousins not playing. They're a fairly respectable 6-8 when he plays and they're 1-7 when he doesn't. We should stop wondering if they'd be better off without him.
| 42.1% | 32.7 | 45.5% | 3.8% |
| 26 |
New York Knicks (10-11)
I'm almost ready to file a protest on the behalf of Kristaps Porzingis and the New York Knicks. They haven't budged from being a bottom 5 team on here in quite a while and they're definitely better than the Bucks. Five rookies in history have per 100-possession averages of 25 points, 15 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks. The Admiral, Hakeem, Shaq, Towns, and now Porzingis. Get it together, SportsLine.
| 40.8% | 33.7 | 57.1% | 1.9% |
| 27 |
Brooklyn Nets (5-15)
The good news is this team has been very competitive against the undefeated Warriors. The bad news is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson needs ankle surgery and all of the fun has been lost. The only person who can save them is hilarious moments from Andrea Bargnani. Or we can bring back Andray Blatche?
| 36.1% | 28.0 | 55.0% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Denver Nuggets (8-13)
Randy Foye has been a worse shooter than Emmanuel Mudiay this season. That's incomprehensible considering Mudiay is shooting 31.1/25.7 and Foye is a career 40.4/37 shooter. Foye is shooting 20.6 percent on open and wide-open threes. How is this possible? Did he start shooting left-handed?
| 27.5% | 24.6 | 45.0% | 0.0% |
| 29 |
Philadelphia 76ers (1-20)
Our projections have them for just over 15 wins this season, which would require a huge improvement from their current pace of just under four wins. FOUR! For two years, I've predicted them to be historically bad and it didn't happen. This year, I bought in for about 20 wins and this is the result? I can't trust the process, Sam Hinkie. I just can't.
| 25.5% | 15.2 | 55.0% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Los Angeles Lakers (3-17)
Well, you managed to do it, Byron Scott. You managed to fall below the Philadelphia 76ers in our Power Ratings and it only took you about a month. You're barely projected for more wins (not even a full win), and you're 30 percent against the spread when you're asked to cover enormous spreads. It's like watching someone try to finish a six-foot sub on their own.
| 25.4% | 15.9 | 30.0% | 0.0% |
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