Power Ratings: Is the East finally turning the tide?
The West is better than the East.
A month ago, this proclamation wouldn't have been a surprise to anybody. In fact, maybe it's still not a surprise to anybody.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
But you're starting to get mentions here and there of how the No. 8 seed in the West is below .500 and the No. 8 seed in the East isn't.
People also seem to want to point out the early success the East has had against the West in head-to-head match-ups.
The key word there? Early.
In the words of Russell Westbrook responding to Marcus Smart having a nice game against him, "Don't get it twisted."
The West is still much better than the East. The Golden State Warriors, who are challenging all conventional ways in which we understand dominance, are about to start a two-week road trip that peppers the Eastern Conference with Stephen Curry 3-pointers and Draymond Green triple-doubles.
And once that happens, the West will start righting the ship and we'll see their overall record take the usual form we're used to seeing: the West will be superior.
It's great that the East is improved and we're headed to a point in which it may not being cringe-worthy to watch the first-round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Four of our top six teams in the Power Ratings are from the West and eventually the Rockets will stop embarrassing themselves.
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors (19-0)
What happens when superlatives aren't enough credit? On a neutral site, this team is projected to win 66 games right now. Factor in what they've done along with home court advantage and we're up to nearly 72 wins. The 19-0 start clashes with a seven-game, two-week road trip now. Does the greatness ever end?
| 80.8% | 71.8 | 72.2% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs (14-4)
Certainly a more modest streak, but the Spurs are on a five-game win streak over quality opponents and the Nuggets, which has helped them jump the Cavs for the No. 2 spot. They're the only other team looking at a 60-win projection. We're headed for Tim Duncan's 17th 50-win season of his career. Only the Lakers, Celtics, and Suns have more than he does.
| 70.3% | 60.9 | 64.7% | 100% |
| 3 |
Cleveland Cavaliers (13-4)
Cavs drop to third for the first time since the preseason when the Spurs were above them. It's been a weird week. They cruise against Orlando, lose to Toronto on Drake Night, and then barely beat the Hornets and Nets. They're struggling big time against the spread and could use an influx of healthy guards. Kyrie oh Kyrie. Wherefore art thou, Uncle Drew?
| 69.3% | 57.9 | 41.2% | 100% |
| 4 |
Oklahoma City Thunder (11-7)
Despite missing Kevin Durant for about a week, the Thunder have the third best net rating in the NBA and are the last team on this list projected to crack 50 wins. They're a good week from leaping the Cavs too -- same neutral site and ATS percentages. How important is Durant to them? They're plus-15.7 per 100 with him on the floor, plus-0.5 with him off.
| 69.3% | 55.4 | 41.2% | 100% |
| 5 |
Boston Celtics (10-8)
The Boston Celtics are fifth? Fifth?! Does SportsLine owe Danny Ainge a conditional first-round draft pick or something? A month ago the Celtics were 19th in the NBA and 10th in the East in Power Ratings. Now they're the second team in the East and fifth overall. They're doing it with a bunch of 8th men in the rotation. It's like pulling off an Ocean's Eleven heist with 11 Scott Caan's.
| 59.5% | 47.6 | 47.1% | 95.6% |
| 6 |
Los Angeles Clippers (10-8)
Clippers played three average-to-bad teams last week and won those games. They played one good team (Utah) at home and lost. That's pretty much where they are right now and their ATS reflects it too. You can trust them to win (not cover) against bad teams. But how do they compete with the good teams? The offense is good but they have the 11th worst defense. Maybe Doc should complain about that instead?
| 58.0% | 47.1 | 35.3% | 97.4% |
| 7 |
Atlanta Hawks (12-8)
Hawks fall two spots this week in the Power Ratings because they've been wildly inconsistent. Since their hot start, they've lost six of their last nine games, including an unforgiveable loss to the Nets. They were also season swept by the Wolves. Biggest surprise? Hawks are fairly ordinary shooting from outside (14th in 3-point percentage). Do they miss DeMarre Carroll's shooting that much?
| 57.6% | 49.6 | Â 44.4% | 98.5% |
| 8 |
Memphis Grizzlies (10-8)
The Grizzlies are dead. Now the Grizzlies are back alive. We're talking Zombie Grizzlies now, folks. And the idea of a zombie grizzly is terrifying. You know those new zombie movies where they run super fast and are relentlessly hungry? Now imagine those people are grizzly bears and have won seven of their last nine games.
| 56.3% | 46.9 | 44.4% | 97.2% |
| 9 |
Chicago Bulls (10-5)
The Bulls are another one of those pretty good teams who are just horrendous against the spread. But they're great in clutch games. In games that go to a clutch situation (+/- five points with five minutes or less in the game), the Bulls are 7-3 despite having a net rating of 0.0. It's bizarre because they can't score at all in these situations but their defense is amazing.
| 55.0% | 48.5 | 35.7% | 96.4% |
| 10 |
Toronto Raptors (11-7)
The Raptors, on the other hand, are great against the spread. They're up two spots in the ratings, but that may be because of a Drake Night algorithm that nobody can seem to crack. We'll have to look deeper into the equations and see how much a "hotline bling" boost is worth. Raptors are tied for 10th in defense but were 10th in defense this time last year. Will that hold this time?
| 53.3% | 45.0 | 64.7% | 85.3% |
| 11 |
Indiana Pacers (11-5)
Remember when the Pacers started 0-3? Me neither. They are soaring up all kinds of rankings and ratings the past couple weeks and saw the second highest increase in playoff odds (up 23.1 percent) from last week. Paul George is doing everything right now, including shooting 45.5 percent on seven 3-point attempts per game. He's almost too good right now.
| 52.8% | 47.1 | 68.8% | 94.1% |
| 12 |
Detroit Pistons (9-9)
Pistons drop two spots this week and the regression for Reggie Jackson is hitting big time right now. Since the Pistons' 5-1 start, Detroit is just 3-8 and Jackson has been shooting just 37.6 percent from the field and 28.3 percent from deep. Teams are taking away the lobs to Andre Drummond and forcing the Pistons' guards to beat them. They aren't.
| 52.0% | 40.7 | 47.1% | 47.3% |
| 13 |
Phoenix Suns (8-9)
The Suns are tied for the No. 8 seed with Minnesota and yet they're 10 spots higher than the Wolves. The Wolves even have a positive net rating while the Suns sit at minus-1.1. So why is this? SportsLine believes what the Suns are doing is much more sustainable, probably due to style and talent. They're not wrong, but it's interesting to see the disparity.
| 51.2% | 40.9 | 52.9% | 57.8% |
| 14 |
Houston Rockets (7-11)
The Rockets suck. They don't Philadelphia 76ers or Los Angeles Lakers suck, but they suck right now. They can't find consistency. They haven't taken advantage of favorable match-ups. You don't exactly fear them right now. They have an easy schedule coming up. This may determine how seriously we consider them bouncing back.
| 50.8% | 39.9 | 23.5% | 57.8% |
| 15 |
Miami Heat (10-6)
The Heat have done what they're supposed to do. They won two-thirds of their games while playing stellar defense against an easy schedule to start the season. They've had a bottom 10 schedule in terms of difficulty. Now we get to see how legitimate their place in the East is. Next eight games are against potential playoff teams.
| 49.7% | 43.4 | 46.7% | 72.7% |
| 16 |
Utah Jazz (8-8)
Right now, the Jazz are projected as the No. 8 seed with just under 42 wins and playoff odds at 71 percent. A lot of this is where we thought they'd be projected, but the current makeup of the West seems to be worse than expected. So shouldn't the Jazz be doing better? They are in the middle of a 9-of-12 games at home stretch, so maybe they'll be better now.
| 49.6% | 41.4 | 64.3% | 71.8% |
| 17 |
Milwaukee Bucks (7-11)
SportsLine trusts the Bucks despite having a red carpet playing defense at center for them and a point guard consistently helping the team practice offensive rebounding. We keep getting deeper into the season and they remain the worst defense in the league. Only positive is they force a lot of turnovers, but they also give them right back at a stupid rate.
| 49.2% | 37.1 | 41.2% | 16.3% |
| 18 |
Washington Wizards (6-8)
It's early, but the Wizards are currently 12th in the East and they're relatively healthy too. So what's the deal? Is it possible that asking Randy Wittman to coach a style of play he resisted forever was a mistake? Did we create this mess and then ask him to clean it up without giving him a mop and bucket? Are we the bad dorm roommates here and Wittman is just too nice to say something?
| 47.8% | 39.2 | 42.9% | 30.6% |
| 19 |
Dallas Mavericks (10-8)
SportsLine isn't buying the Mavericks as one of the best teams in the West so far. The neutral site percentage is showing the Mavs to be much more like the road team we've seen (5-5) than the home team (5-2). Even still, the Mavs' are money against the spread so far. They're tied for the third-best percentage ATS.
| 47.7% | 40.5 | 64.7% | 63.9% |
| 20 |
Orlando Magic (9-8)
The Magic jumped four spots after beating the Knicks, Bucks, and Celtics in a five-day span. This also coincides with the Magic bringing Victor Oladipo off the bench. It's a good idea to split up Oladipo and Elfrid Payton. Minus-9.2 per 100 with both on the floor. Plus-19.6 with just Oladipo playing. Plus-5.2 with just Payton playing. Keep them away from each other.
| 46.0% | 37.8 | 64.7% | 19.1% |
| 21 |
Charlotte Hornets (10-7)
Hornets are now projected to crack the 40-win threshold and have higher playoffs odds than both the Bucks and the Wizards right now. But that neutral site percentage isn't coming around anytime soon. The Hornets have abandoned the offensive boards (30th) and are chucking more threes than ever. This modern style of play puts them as the fifth best offense so far. It's all connected.
| 45.4% | 40.4 | 56.3% | 41.9% |
| 22 |
Portland Trail Blazers (7-11)
Remember how we wanted to keep Payton and Oladipo separated in Orlando? We've got the opposite going in Portland. Keep Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum together as much as possible. Blazers are minus-4.7 with just Lillard and minus-3.7 with just McCollum. Together? The team is a plus-5.3 when they're on the court. Is Terry Stotts familiar with the movie "Stuck on You" perchance?
| 44.3% | 37.6 | 52.9% | 32.8% |
| 23 |
Minnesota Timberwolves (8-9)
The Wolves moved up a couple spots and had four wins added to their projection, and yet their neutral site remains quite low. The funny part about that is it's taking away the advantage they have on the road as opposed to a home court advantage. Wolves are 9-0 ATS this season on the road and just 1-7 at home. If they correct the home portion while keeping relative road success, they'll climb these ratings.
| 43.5% | 32.6 | 58.8% | 4.3% |
| 24 |
New Orleans Pelicans (4-13)
Following a loss on Saturday in Utah, someone in the media prompted Anthony Davis three different times about his new Jordan shoes that were early releases of an upcoming color way. Three different times Davis refused to acknowledge it as he seemed frustrated with another loss. That's how the Pelicans' November was.
| 43.0% | 30.7 | 35.3% | 1.7% |
| 25 |
Sacramento Kings (7-12)
The good news is the Sacramento Kings haven't had rumors of a star player being traded or a coach being fired in a couple of weeks. The bad news is the team is struggling without DeMarcus Cousins and is slipping into irrelevancy once again. And that usually leads to rumors about ... well, I don't have to tell you about the vicious cycle.
| 42.4% | 33.2 | 44.4% | 5.1% |
| 26 |
New York Knicks (8-10)
When is SportsLine going to buy into the Knicks? Does anybody make an anti-James Dolan software that rids this computer of the malaise of this unfortunate franchise from the past? The present is good. The future looks good. Kristaps Porzingis is an internet god. Learn to love again, SportsLine! The Knicks are embraceable!
| 40.8% | 33.4 | 55.6% | 2.3% |
| 27 |
Brooklyn Nets (4-13)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is the only player on the Brooklyn Nets with a positive net rating. The defense is 10 points per 100 possessions better when he's on the floor. I have no idea if this is random noise in the stats or something to celebrate. I'm choosing to celebrate it because he's fun and the Nets need something that isn't soul-crushing here every week. And notice the plus-8.8 percent in ATS from last week!
| 36.9% | 28.0 | 58.8% | 0.1% |
| 28 |
Denver Nuggets (6-12)
Emmanuel Mudiay is the first rookie since 1957-58 to play at least 30 minutes per game while having a true shooting percentage under 40. In fact, three other players have done it and they all played for the Philadelphia Warriors during the 1950s. So every game for Mudiay right now is like the worst Throwback Thursday post possible. Even worse than that friend who had frosted tips 10 years ago.
| 29.4% | 25.3 | 41.2% | 0.0% |
| 29 |
Los Angeles Lakers (2-14)
There are going to be plenty of opportunities to complain about Byron Scott or the Lakers the rest of the season. For now, I'm at the age where I'm starting to have experienced the entire career of some truly great players. Kobe Bryant is one of those legends I've been fortunate enough to follow for his entire journey. Thank you, Kobe, for the incredible ride you've given basketball fans.
| 24.7% | 15.5 | 31.3% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Philadelphia 76ers (0-18)
28 straight losses. Their prized rookie is getting into trouble off the court. They're still winless. And yet, they're on the heels of passing the Lakers. OK, I guess I had to get one more complaint in about this Lakers season after all.
| 23.4% | 14.6 | 55.6% | 0.0% |
Share This Story