Power Ratings: Is anyone noticing what's going on in Charlotte?
Is it time we start respecting the Charlotte Hornets as a team that can make it to the Eastern Conference finals?
This isn't your old Bobcats team.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
This isn't a fluke of a team.
Everything the Hornets are doing right now is pointing toward being a major problem in the East.
It doesn't mean they are a threat to take down the Cleveland Cavaliers, but they are a team wrecking the rest of the NBA right now.
Since dropping to 19-23 in the latter half of January, the Hornets can't really be stopped. They have an 18-5 record during that time, which is only bested by the Golden State Warriors (20-2) and San Antonio Spurs (19-4) in this stretch.
They have the eighth-best offense, the ninth best defense, and the ninth best net rating on the entire season.
The Hornets are modern with the way they attack you from the perimeter and the way they swarm, switch, and play a team style of defense. They just don't have stars doing it.
If you're in the East, you want to avoid the hottest team in the league right now. They're within striking distance of the No. 3 seed and you don't want to give them home court advantage (25-9).
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
There are a lot of incredible facts about the Warriors this year as they continue their assault on history. Here are two ridiculous ones in my mind: 1.) The Warriors are tied for second best against the spread despite these high point spreads. 2.) If Steph Curry "only" hits 300 threes for the next five seasons, he'll be the all-time leader at the age of 32. He's at 318 right now.
| 78.4% | 73.0 | 57.1% | 100% |
| 2 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland was about to slip back down to third in the Power Ratings this week, but their blowout victory over the Clippers was enough to keep them in the second slot. Even though he has a high standard, LeBron James has been ridiculous lately. In his past seven games, he's putting up 26.3/8.6/6.1 while shooting 52.7 percent from the field. Most importantly? 37.9 percent from deep. Cavs are 6-1 in those games.
| 68.7% | 58.7 | 48.4% | 100% |
| 3 |
San Antonio Spurs
I still have a hard time buying the Spurs as a worse team than the Cavaliers, so I disagree with SportsLine on this one. The Cavs are slightly favored and it only changed because of the Cavs thrashing of the Clips, but this Spurs team is much better. Look at the way they suffocated the Thunder down the stretch on Saturday. The Spurs defense alone makes them second best. Throw in Kawhi Leonard's offense and it's clear-cut.
| 68.2% | 66.5 | 59.1% | 100% |
| 4 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
I don't know what to say about the swoon the Thunder are going through. It was one thing for the Thunder to get strangled by the Spurs on Saturday, but when it's following Ricky Rubio beating you on a game-winning 3-pointer the night before, it's bad. Since the All-Star break, Russell Westbrook is shooting 28.8 percent in fourth quarters. At least Kevin Durant (50.8 percent) is taking more fourth quarter shots.
| 65.9% | 54.0 | 40.6% | 100% |
| 5 |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers aren't as hot as they were a month ago, and they've lost four of their last six games. But Damian Lillard is still on an ungodly tear. Over his last 17 games, Lillard is averaging 30.4 points and 6.4 assists while shooting 45 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3-point range on 9.4 3-point attempts per game. Those are Curry-type numbers.
| 61.8% | 43.9 | 56.7% | 99.4% |
| 6 |
Los Angeles Clippers
It looks like Blake Griffin won't be back until late March, so the Clippers have to keep going a bit more with filling in the holes. The good news? Kanye West has reached out to Steve Ballmer about redesigning the new Chuck the Condor mascot, and Ballmer asked him if they could do lunch soon. Wait, is this good news? This could end up being really weird. OK, that's definitely good news.
| 58.2% | 52.0 | 50.0% | 99.8% |
| 7 |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have a great "problem" at center. Jonas Valanciunas is a monster on offense. Someone that big with that kind of skill is helping the Raptors post a 109.5 offensive rating. He's putting up 17.6 and 12.6 per 36 minutes on 57.1 percent shooting. They also have Bismack Biyombo, who is helping Toronto limit opponents to 99.5 points per 100 possessions. It's the best of both worlds, like Jay Z and R. Kelly.
| 58.2% | 54.8 | 54.0% | 100% |
| 8 |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have the second best defense in the NBA this season, and only an historic season from the Spurs is keeping them from challenging for No. 1 in defensive rating. They don't allow you to make shots, they don't allow you to take care of the ball, and they don't let you get free throws. You can only beat them by getting offensive boards. Good luck trying to score on them in the playoffs.
| 57.9% | 46.8 | 50.8% | 98.7% |
| 9 |
Boston Celtics
A loss to the Rockets was enough to drop them one spot below the Hawks this week, and we're still left wondering if this thing can work in the playoffs. My biggest question for them in the postseason is whether or not they can keep teams off the free throw line. They're the third worst at keeping teams off the free throw line and they can't afford to give up easy points to anybody in the league.
| 56.7% | 48.2 | 55.4% | 99.7% |
| 10 |
Dallas Mavericks
SportsLine is going to come crashing down on the Mavericks soon, but it isn't right now. The Mavs have lost five straight games and are just two games ahead of the Utah Jazz. What's worse is their next six games: at Charlotte, at Cleveland, home to the Warriors, home and home with Portland, and at Warriors. They may as well get their mail forwarded to the factory in Hostel.
| 54.6% | 39.9 | 50.8% | 72.5% |
| 11 |
Charlotte Hornets
SportsLine has finally caught up to buying into the Hornets. This team looks legitimate in their latest tear through the league, and it bumped them up seven spots in the Power Ratings this week. Not only are they almost a lock for the playoffs, according to SportsLine, but they're also looking at taking the No. 3 seed. Can you win a series with your best performers as Kemba Walker, Nic Batum, and Marvin Williams?
| 52.3% | 45.7 | 54.7% | 97.8% |
| 12 |
Chicago Bulls
SportsLine still likes the Bulls enough, but it may be time to start putting together a eulogy for their season. At worst, let's get our black suit cleaned and pressed. They've dropped two spots in the Power Ratings and are currently on the outside looking in with the playoffs. Jimmy Butler can't miss any more games. And they could use these good shooting nights from Derrick Rose actually becoming impactful.
| 51.9% | 42.0 | 40.6%Â | 51.0% |
| 13 |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks jump seven spots! If you have League Pass, you have to watch what Giannis Antetokounmpo is doing every night. This isn't some internet love of him spilling over into the Power Ratings. This is a streak of unreal play he's unleashing on the NBA. Over his last 11 games, Giannis is averaging 20.4 points, 9.3 rebounds, 8.6 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1.9 blocks. Somewhere, Oscar Robertson is writing a strongly worded letter.
| 51.9% | 37.2 | 53.0% | 1.8% |
| 14 |
Indiana Pacers
As we all expected when the Pacers went to a smaller, faster style, they're the third best defense in basketball and their offense can't put it together. Wait, what? Here's the surprising stat for this team: Three guys this season will play over 1,000 minutes and average 12 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes: Pau Gasol. Tim Duncan. Ian Mahinmi. He's had a great season.
| 51.5% | 43.2 | 50.8% | 81.2% |
| 15 |
Miami Heat
Maybe SportsLine was a little too optimistic on the Heat last week when they jumped half a dozen spots in the Power Ratings. This week, they drop three spots. Losses to the Bucks and Raptors were enough to hurt this team's neutral site percentage. They can climb back up this week by finding a way to take down either the Hornets or Cavs or both.
| 51.4% | 46.3 | 52.3% | 98.3% |
| 16 |
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have worked their way into the top 8 in the East, but that didn't keep them from dropping three spots this week too. The main lineup with Tobias Harris looks great though. It's already their second most used lineup this season. Reggie Jackson, KCP, Marcus Morris, Harris, and Andre Drummond are scoring 110.6 points per 100 possessions. They're a net rating of plus-5. This unit can flat-out score.
| 51.3% | 42.4 | 53.1% | 66.0% |
| 17 |
Houston Rockets
The biggest thing the Rockets have going for them is the schedule at the end of the season. If they can survive the rest of March, their final five games of the season are Dallas, Phoenix, the Lakers, Wolves, and Kings. This won't be the difference between making and missing the playoffs. It will be the difference between the fifth seed and the seventh seed.
| 48.2% | 40.8 | 43.9% | 86.6% |
| 18 |
Utah Jazz
This Jazz team looks to be rebounding, and while I don't think they're a top 10 team in the NBA, I think they have a much better case for being 10th than the Mavericks do. Shelvin Mack has been up and down since the team acquired him, but he is shooting 42.9 percent from 3-point range in 12 games. Jazz have someone who can at least take advantage of bad point guard defense.
| 47.1% | 39.1 | 47.7% | 41.5% |
| 19 |
Washington Wizards
So about the Wizards making a push for the playoffs in the East ... yikes. This team has fallen apart recently and now the fans are as down on the team as they were when Andray Blatche was promoting Lap Dance Tuesdays during the lockout. They've lost five straight tough games, but to make the postseason, they needed at least two of those to be wins. Time to scout the draft.
| 46.5% | 38.1 | 49.2% | 5.5% |
| 20 |
Brooklyn Nets
Despite being projected for just 25.3 wins by SportsLine, the Nets have climbed all the way up to 20th in the Power Ratings. Despite swapping out Shane Larkin and Donald Sloan at point guard, they've been surprisingly scrappy. They're over 50 percent against the spread too. And waiving Joe Johnson appears to be a win-win for everybody. The Nets are trying to ruin the Celtics' draft plans the best they can.
| 46.1% | 25.3 | 50.8% | 0.0% |
| 21 |
Memphis Grizzlies
If you live in Memphis and you have semi-working knees and decent hand-eye coordination, the Grizzlies may be interested in you at this point in the season. They can't find any healthy bodies and are looking like they've been cursed by the gypsy from Thinner. The injuries finally caught up to them in the Power Ratings, but they're still 12 games over .500 right now.
| 45.1% | 45.7 | 53.1% | 99.8% |
| 22 |
Sacramento Kings
Since we last checked in on the Kings, the team suspended DeMarcus Cousins for screaming at George Karl during a timeout. When Cousins was asked about the suspension, he said it was a suspension from Karl and not a suspension from the organization. In case you were curious, Cousins is an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2018. The clock has a lot of ticks left, but leverage is running out.
| 41.9% | 33.1 | 42.2% | 0.1% |
| 23 |
Denver Nuggets
The season only has about a month left, but if it had two more months remaining this Nuggets team would be a threat to challenge for a playoff spot. They're only five games back and they're playing great basketball right now. They've won five of their last six and while the schedule is easy for them during this stretch, they're eating bad teams alive. Can this carry into next season?
| 41.7% | 34.3 | 57.1% | 0.4% |
| 24 |
New York Knicks
On a night in which Carmelo Anthony and Kobe Bryant were squaring off against each other in a tight game down the stretch, neither of them factored into the game-winning shot. It was Jose Calderon who sank a pull-up 3-pointer with almost no time left on the clock to secure the victory. Wins like this could save Kurt Rambis' job security, even as interim. Life comes at you fast.
| 41.4% | 33.1 | 54.4% | 0.0% |
| 25 |
Orlando Magic
The thing everybody wants to know about the Orlando Magic is whether or not Aaron Gordon can be this team's Draymond Green. I'm not sure anybody believes he can be the triple-double threat at all times that Draymond is, but the Gordon at the five-spot momentum is about whether or not you can defend and then run out on teams. He's becoming the Magic's future star and his versatility adds all possibilities.
| 40.9% | 34.2 | 54.7% | 0.1% |
| 26 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Andrew Wiggins post-All Star break bump is a real thing. During his rookie campaign, there was a significant rise in Wiggins' scoring, assists, free throw attempts, and shooting percentage following All-Star weekend. This year? Assists are up again, 3-point shooting has more than doubled on accuracy, and his true shooting percentage is up 4.2 percent. It's helped the Wolves become a top 10 offense since the All-Star break.
| 37.3% | 26.8 | 46.2% | 0.0% |
| 27 |
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans drop six spots this week and things are getting really bad for them. The most positive story to come out of this team in a few weeks is that Kendrick Perkins was at a team charity function and he ate too much pasta during that event. Maybe some good luck in the draft lottery can turn this team from an Olive Garden ad into a team we're excited about again.
| 35.8% | 30.9 | 41.5% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Philadelphia 76ers
It looks like Jahlil Okafor's season is done, so how do we feel about his rookie campaign? 17.5 points and 7 rebounds per game for him. He'll be just the 14th rookie to post those averages while making at least half his shots. Those players range from Tim Duncan, Magic Johnson, and Hakeem Olajuwon to Bill Cartwright and Terry Cummings. How high are you on Okafor moving forward and how much is due to the rest of his rookie class?
| 35.4% | 13.8 | 44.6% | 0.0% |
| 29 |
Phoenix Suns
Things have improved greatly for Alex Len this season. He's rebounding at a much higher rate, he's getting to the free throw line a ton, and he's more than doubled his assist rate. Len is coming on strong as of late too, which begs the question: Do the Suns already regret the Tyson Chandler signing or does his mentorship make Len's improvement more likely?
| 30.3% | 22.0 | 40.9% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Los Angeles Lakers
Byron Scott didn't play Julius Randle, D’Angelo Russell, and Jordan Clarkson down the stretch of a recent, tight game because he feels like they've had enough experience in their careers already. This truly is one of the most magnificent tank jobs in NBA history and it's entertaining enough with Scott's quotes to become the most bewildering as well. If somehow they end up losing their picks, we'll have to put a bag over the head of Magic Johnson's statue.
| 23.6% | 18.4 | 46.3% | 0.0% |
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