Power Ratings: How good is the second tier in the West?
The back end of the Western Conference playoff race is an absolute mess.
The three teams currently occupying the Nos. 6, 7, and 8 seeds are top 11 teams in the Power Ratings this week.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
Despite a big fall from Portland, the Blazers are still in the top 10.
The Utah Jazz, who are chasing all three of these teams for a postseason appearance, are projected in the bottom half of the league. However, they don't need to do much to disrupt what SportsLine thinks of the West.
Everything is completely fragile at the moment, and yet we're seeing some odd resiliency from these flawed four teams.
The Jazz are playing much better as of late. The Blazers have faltered but still control their own destiny. The Mavericks are surviving one of their toughest stretches of the season. And the Rockets still have enough punch to move up to the No. 6 seed.
How will this finish? Who gets the honor of being annihilated in the first round by the Warriors and Spurs?
Who will secure the playoff revenue, and if the Blazers do manage to stick in the top 8, will it be worth losing their draft pick to Denver?
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
I'm not totally disappointed that the Warriors lost to the Spurs. That should happen, even in this historic season by the Warriors. I'm more disappointed they seemed to be focused on a missed travel call and believed a big call on the road could turn the tides. Just take your loss, rebound, and go attack 73 wins. Don't be that team that makes an excuse in an excusable defeat.
| 79.0% | 72.9 | 58.2% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
There shouldn’t be any question by SportsLine over the next couple of weeks regarding whether or not the Cavs should be ahead of the Spurs. They were already one of the best defensive teams of the 3-point era, and now they've taken down the Warriors to remain undefeated (for now) at home. There is a clear distance between the Spurs and the Cavs right now.
| 70.6% | 67.7 | 59.4% | 100% |
| 3 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
LeBron James sat against the Mavs, Kyrie Irving had 33 points and one assist, and Cleveland pulled out the victory. That didn't stop reports and rumblings from coming out that teammates essentially want Irving to pass more. He's averaging 5.2 assists. When he gets six or more assists, Cavs are 9-2. Five or fewer, Cavs are 22-10. They're still good but not quite as elite as when he's helping.
| 69.9% | 58.1 | 45.5% | 100% |
| 4 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
This was a nice rebound week for the Thunder, who had been struggling and under fire for their late-game play since the All-Star break. They took down the Blazers, Celtics, Sixers, and Pacers this week with the game against Indiana working on some late game execution. This won't fix the Thunder, but they're trying to run more end-of-game sets than just isolation/hero ball.
| 66.4% | 55.5 | 42.7% | 100% |
| 5 |
Los Angeles Clippers
I'm a bit shocked the Clippers moved up to No. 5 this week, considering the week they had. You understand them getting blitzed by the Spurs. The win over the Rockets was nice. But they lost to a Grizzlies' training camp invite list and then to the Pelicans without Anthony Davis. SportsLine should make them fall and feel bad for those two losses, even without Blake Griffin.
| 58.4% | 51.0 | 48.5% | 99.9% |
| 6 |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors still aren't being acknowledged as the fifth-best team in the NBA by SportsLine. I'm confused as to why. They have one of the top clutch duos in the NBA with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and I'm not sold on the Blazers or Celtics or Hawks or whomever SportsLine has often thrown above them as being better. Still a legitimate question about the Clippers though.
| 58.0% | 55.8 | 54.4% | 100% |
| 7 |
Boston Celtics
Remember when everybody was riding high on these Celtics? It's not time to abandon ship, but you do see the difference between the Celtics winning games and the Celtics trying to beat elite top players. They couldn't handle Durant-Westbrook. They struggled against Paul George. They couldn't take down Lowry-DeRozan. There is a clear line to what type of star they can handle, especially in a tight game.
| 57.6% | 46.9 | 53.6% | 99.5% |
| 8 |
Atlanta Hawks
I've been very impressed with the Hawks' defense since the turn of the calendar year. They're one of the top defenses in the league and only the historic Spurs are besting them in that department. How smart are they? They let Michael Beasley score 30 points and won by double digits. Houston never saw the fault in this strategy but wound up with the L.
| 56.9% | 47.5 | 52.9% | 99.4% |
| 9 |
Portland Trail Blazers
Not too long ago, the Blazers were a feel good story and they looked like they might challenge for the No. 5 seed in the West. They were even as high as fifth in the Power Ratings last week. They've fallen four spots and they're in danger of falling out of the playoffs. They're in the No. 6 seed but only 1.5 games ahead of the Utah Jazz. Can they get back on track?
| 56.6% | 42.8 | 56.3% | 98.0% |
| 10 |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs' tough part of their schedule has been fruitful so far. Dallas has gone 2-2 through this ridiculous six-game stretch and just have a road game in Portland and a road game in Oakland left on it. If they can get the win against the Blazers, they won't be a lock for the postseason but they'll be in phenomenal position. He won't get it, but Rick Carlisle deserves some COY consideration.
| 54.8% | 40.8 | 52.2% | 74.4% |
| 11 |
Houston Rockets
Daryl Morey recently tweeted that he thinks the NBA should be playing a single elimination style tournament in the playoffs. Maybe he's caught up in March Madness or maybe he's just a huge fan of the Euroleague final four, as he referenced. Or perhaps he realizes that this team that made the conference finals a year ago has no chance of winning four out of seven games in the playoffs.
| 54.8% | 41.6 | 42.9% | 89.6% |
| 12 |
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons could've made some real headway in their quest for the postseason by either beating the Hawks or distancing themselves from the Wizards this past week. They couldn't pull off either. Now they have a must-win game against the Bulls in two weeks in Chicago. Still a lot of games to go in a tight race, but they can't drop this one to the Bulls. It'll put them in a deep hole.
| 53.0% | 42.4 | 52.2%Â | 51.3% |
| 13 |
Chicago Bulls
Speaking of the Bulls, SportsLine still isn't quite sure what to make of them. Do you cut bait? Do you buy in? Do the Bulls have enough health to buy in? They dropped below the Pistons this week and their upcoming home-and-home against the Knicks looms large. You can't really drop either of those games because the gimmes need to be completed.
| 52.6% | 43.1 | 42.7% | 63.6% |
| 14 |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have cooled off quite a bit since their big surge a couple weeks ago, but they're still respected by SportsLine and dangerous. The loss to Denver was a killer this week and a bit confusing, despite how frisky the Nuggets can be. Maybe the most surprising thing for Charlotte is since the All-Star break, the team is over seven points per 100 possessions worse defensively with Marvin Williams.
| 52.4% | 45.3 | 52.9% | 96.9% |
| 15 |
Miami Heat
LeBron James said the Miami Heat concern the Cavaliers a bit, which is probably the best case scenario for them heading toward the offseason. They still don't have much shooting from the outside, even if Chris Bosh returns. But the Heat do have players that worry the opposition, and feeling confident in tight games can carry you quite far. The Cavs would love to see Miami surge over the next two weeks to move them into the No. 3 seed.
| 52.1% | 46.6 | 51.5% | 98.5% |
| 16 |
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers drop a couple of spots in the Power Ratings this week, and we're not completely certain they'll be a playoff team. SportsLine has their playoff chances over 80 percent, but the Pistons are right on their heels. So the Pacers have to worry about two teams here when you include the Bulls. Games vs. Philly, NOLA, and Brooklyn have to be all victories.
| 50.7% | 43.6 | 50.0% | 81.2% |
| 17 |
Milwaukee Bucks
SportsLine was pretty high on the Bucks last week and then we had a nice reminder of why this team has struggled so much this season. A loss to Toronto is understandable but the loss to Utah at home is one a good team would probably have figured out. We still love the "Point Giannis" situation and how it's playing out, but this team is so thin.
| 49.0% | 36.2 | 50.7% | 0.1% |
| 18 |
Utah Jazz
This just may not be the Utah's season. They've won four of five and are right on the heels of the Blazers, Rockets, and Mavericks. But now Gordon Hayward is struggling with plantar fasciitis and Alec Burks still isn't back from his broken ankle early this year. Their matchup in Houston on Wednesday may decide their playoff fate, unless the Mavs hit some struggles.
| 48.9% | 40.0 | 49.3% | 38.8% |
| 19 |
Brooklyn Nets
In looking for hope for the Nets outside of trying to climb above the Wolves in the standings to ruin Boston's lottery party just a bit more, Chris McCullough is playing and has been pretty solid. He's active on defense, garnering high steal and block rates. He can't finish around the hoop, but he's hitting the mid-range jumper. Nice start in his recovery.
| 48.2% | 25.1 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 20 |
Washington Wizards
You want to know where the line is between somewhat respectable and "Yikes, this season is killing us?" SportsLine thinks more of the Nets than the Wizards. Wasn't this Wizards team supposed to challenge for the No. 2 seed this season? How did we get to this point? How up-to-date is Randy Wittman's CV? We're seeing not just anybody can coach pace-and-space.
| 46.8% | 39.7 | 50.7% | 9.6% |
| 21 |
Memphis Grizzlies
Here's how bad the situation has become for the Grizzlies from a roster standpoint. Matt Barnes, who really isn't significant at all unless he's threatening someone, was suspended for chasing John Henson into the tunnel at the end of the Bucks-Grizzlies game. It made me wonder how the Grizzlies could possibly survive without him. That's how many quality players are left for Memphis. Shoutout to the Zach Randolph triple-double though!
| 42.2% | 44.0 | 52.9% | 99.4% |
| 22 |
Denver Nuggets
Tough week for the Nuggets, but their win over the Hornets was a great victory. Might be the reason they moved up a spot. In the victory, D.J. Augustin led with 24 points, continuing his surprising play since the move to Denver. He's been the most impactful regular rotation guy, serving up a net rating of plus-2.5 per 100 possessions. They're a minus-4.5 with him on the bench.
| 41.2% | 34.3 | 56.7% | 0.0% |
| 23 |
New York Knicks
You can understand the loss to the Warriors in Golden State. You can understand the loss to the Wizards on the road. But how do you justify the home loss to a bad Kings team? Even if you're the Knicks. Their biggest highlight was Kevin Seraphin running over a kid when running onto the court for warm-ups. This is peak Kurt Rambis era.
| 40.3% | 32.0 | 52.1% | 0.0% |
| 24 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Zach LaVine is shooting the leather off the basketball since the All-Star break. His time at the shooting guard position during this stretch has him on fire, as he's making 50 percent of his shots and 45.5 percent of his 3-pointers over the last 15 games. He's not just taking a couple of threes either. He's attempting just over five per game. His catch-and-shoot is absurd right now -- 47.7 percent from deep.
| 39.4% | 26.7 | 47.1% | 0.0% |
| 25 |
Sacramento Kings
Somehow the Kings are worse with DeMarcus Cousins on the court since the All-Star break than they are with him on the bench. It's not much. It's just a difference of about a half a point per 100 possessions. It just adds to the absurdity and the disappointment of this Kings season. I can't even say I'm excited about the next era in Sacramento because why set yourself up for sadness?
| 39.0% | 32.4 | 43.3% | 0.0% |
| 26 |
Orlando Magic
Are the Magic really a bottom five team in this league? Even with the struggles this week, all of their losses were to good teams. None of those losses came against teams they should definitely beat. I don't agree with dropping them down. They should be four spots higher, although you can convince me Denver is better than Orlando. No way they're worse than the Kings, SportsLine.
| 38.7% | 33.7 | 57.4% | 0.0% |
| 27 |
New Orleans Pelicans
Anthony Davis is done for the season. He's apparently been playing with a torn labrum for three years. If this sounds alarming to you, that's because it absolutely should be. He's now missed 68 games in the past four seasons, and has never played 70 games in one season. Pelicans, improve the medical staff please. Don't waste this talent. He's too special to ruin.
| 35.1% | 31.5 | 42.0% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Phoenix Suns
The Suns have won four of their past eight games, and moved up a spot in the Power Ratings. What does this mean? It just means those four wins have come against bad teams (Magic, Grizzlies, Wolves, and Lakers). They should stop winning games though. They're tied with Brooklyn for third worst. They need to guarantee themselves a top 3 pick.
| 34.9% | 23.9 | 42.0% | 0.0% |
| 29 |
Philadelphia 76ers
Sixers are on a five-game losing streak and need to lose their final 12 games in order to tie the worst record in NBA history. And yet, they're not the worst team in the Power Ratings. SportsLine projects them for three more victories, which would avoid history and yet still keep them with top lotto odds. This is what Sam Hinkie wanted.
| 30.2% | 12.0 | 44.9% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Los Angeles Lakers
Mitch Kupchak has said this would normally be a time to develop young players, but it's too hard to do in a season in which you're saying goodbye to Kobe Bryant. He needs minutes and shots. Five years ago, this one was of, if not the most prestigious team in the NBA. You'd never know it looking at them now.
| 22.2% | 17.2 | 44.9% | 0.0% |
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