Power Ratings: Hawks soar into SportsLine's elite
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
The Golden State Warriors look relatively mortal against the Milwaukee Bucks the last week or so, yet they still continue to dominate the rest of the league. So what is it about Milwaukee that the rest of the league can learn from?
Steph Curry stated after a close win over the Utah Jazz that the best defense against him on a pick-and-roll is to switch everything. That’s the type of defensive plan the Bucks have had under Jason Kidd.
Many others believe you have to be physical with Curry when he's bringing the ball up the floor and trying to create for his team. That’s something Michael Carter-Williams was able to do.
So how many other teams can find the right combination to employ this strategy? That's what the NBA has four months to figure out.
This entire time, the Warriors have looked immortal in a basketball sense, and even with the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Cleveland Cavaliers lurking, it's still the Warriors' world. For other teams to emerge, they have to find their own identity and formula that slaps the Warriors in the face, challenges them to a duel, and then replaces their weaponry with a water pistol.
It's not an impossible feat, but the Warriors are still performing at historical rates that challenge the '96 Bulls as the best regular season team in history. Someone has to call out to the universe, find the answer to the Warriors' dominance, and let them know they're the only hope for the NBA. Oh great, now I'm picturing Doc Rivers as Princess Leia. This will only end poorly.
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
It's been two weeks since the Warriors' win total projection increased, which means this team may finally start plateauing. But can you actually plateau in December when you're projected to crack 70 wins on the season? I'm not even sure how to analyze their season at this point. With every win, I'm like a dog turning its head as I try to figure out if there's bacon in their hand.
| 79.8% | 71.3 | 65.4% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
Kawhi Leonard is averaging two steals and just under one block per game. If he can crack that one block per game (he has 25 in 26 games) and keep it going for the entire season, he'll be just the 13th player (23rd time) to do so. He'd be the first player to do it while shooting above 40 percent from 3-point range. He's also one percent away from shooting 50 percent from three. He's really good.
| 70.1% | 61.5 | 67.9% | 100% |
| 3 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
It's almost unbelievable how bad Kyle Singler has been this season. His true shooting percentage wouldn't win most batting titles, he's the only player with at least 200 minutes with a negative PER, and he's one of three Thunder players with a negative net rating (other two have a combined 90 minutes). Only 4.5 more years of the contract he signed this summer.Â
| 69.4% | 55.7 | 44.4% | 100% |
| 4 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Kyrie Irving is back. While we have just one game against the lowly Sixers to go off of, Kevin Love's usage rate before Irving's return was 24.4 percent and it was just 19 percent in that game. It'll be interesting to see how much the Cavs search for Love, like a scorned partner on a dating app.
| 68.4% | 57.7 | 44.0% | 100% |
| 5 |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks fly over the Celtics this week and are now just shy of a 50-win projection for the season. There are still two areas of concern. First, the Hawks are not good at rebounding on either side of the floor. Second, they don't get to the free throw line much, which is typical of a jump-shooting team. Considering they're still not special shooting the three, that's concerning long-term.Â
| 59.0% | 49.6 | 50.0% | 98.3% |
| 6 |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are losers of four of their previous five, yet the computer barely wavered on its love/Stockholm Syndrome for the men in green. The Celtics are kind of a mess on offense, despite the scoring of Isaiah Thomas, but the defense remains intact. Boston isn't in trouble by any means, but at some point the Celts must consistently knock down shots to maintain their early season love.
| 58.4% | 47.7 | 53.9% | 94.4% |
| 7 |
Los Angeles Clippers
Blake Griffin said his team hasn't won any big games, after dropping consecutive matchups to the Spurs and Rockets. And he's kind of correct. Their best wins come from Memphis, Dallas, Phoenix, or Detroit, which is the equivalent of the 49ers' existence for decades in the NFC West. They're in a stretch of 12 of 14 games on the road, which makes you fall apart or find yourselves as a team.
| 56.7% | 46.8 | Â 36.0% | 98.3% |
| 8 |
Chicago Bulls
Jimmy Butler is critiquing his coach Fred Hoiberg, saying he needs to get on guys more when they're not doing what they're supposed to do. Could this be about how bad Derrick Rose has been? This faster offense is sputtering and Rose is taking 1.5 more shots than he's scoring points. This team needs a point guard and Kirk Hinrich might be their best option.
| 56.2% | 48.7 | 36.0% | 95.6% |
| 9 |
Toronto Raptors
The dual point guard lineup for the Raptors is devouring opponents. When Kyle Lowry and Cory Joseph are in the game together, the Raps are giving up just 93 points per 100 possessions and they're outscoring opponents by 14 points. With Jonas Valanciunas coming back soon, the Raptors could be poised for a big attack soon. Clever girl, indeed.
| 55.2% | 46.9 | 57.1% | 91.8% |
| 10 |
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are shuffling things around and have moved Zach Randolph to the bench. Since then, Memphis is 2-3, but only one of those losses has been by double digits so it must be working, right? The Grizzlies aren't going to blow it up and move Mike Conley or Marc Gasol, but does that mean they won't try to move everybody else, including Z-Bo? When does the grit go away and the grind stop?
| 52.3% | 43.9 | 42.9% | 93.6% |
| 11 |
Phoenix Suns
The next seven teams all have higher win projections than the Suns, but the Suns are performing higher on the neutral site metric, placing them 11th in Power Ratings. It's confusing to figure out why the computer loves them so much. The majority of their main rotation guys have negative net ratings and this team isn't good in close games. How have they eclipsed the other teams?
| 51.9% | 38.1 | 44.8% | 46.7% |
| 12 |
Indiana Pacers
The confusing part of the Pacers is their main lineup of Paul George, George Hill, CJ Miles, Monta Ellis, and Ian Mahinmi gets outscored by 7.3 points per 100. Their next six lineups are all double-digit pluses and add up to the same amount of time on the court as that main lineup. Should Indiana be better than 16-10 by not playing that lineup?
| 51.3% | 46.2 | 57.7%Â | 89.1% |
| 13 |
Detroit Pistons
Andre Drummond is regarded as Stan Van Gundy's next Dwight Howard, but Drummond isn't exactly a great rim protector. He's allowing over 50 percent at the rim this season, which is not very good at all. There may be hope though. The last 12 games have seen him around 45.8 percent, which is up with some of the best in the NBA. Can that become a staple of the Pistons' defense?
| 50.9% | 43.6 | 59.3% | 68.0% |
| 14 |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards went 1-2 this week and somehow jumped six spots in Power Ratings. They also doubled their playoff odds from 17.1 percent a week ago to 34.4 percent this week. How is this happening? Is it sorcery? There is some Harry Potter-type of movie coming out, so maybe the computer is just a big J.K. Rowling fan and running around the server room on a broomstick?Â
| 50.8% | 40.5 | 48.0% | 34.4% |
| 15 |
Houston Rockets
You're not going to trick me, Rockets. This five out of your last six success is not going to sway me. I gave up on you during the loss to the Nets because I just can't be hurt anymore. I can't keep buying into you because I want it more than you do. I have to protect myself. It's not you; it's me. I mean, it's definitely you but it's also me.
| 49.8% | 40.0 | 39.3% | 69.5% |
| 16 |
Dallas Mavericks
How are the Mavericks doing this? Look no further than the lineup of Ray Felton, Deron Williams, Wes Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki, and Zaza Pachulia. Incomprehensibly, this lineup is stellar defensively (96.6) and executing beautifully in Rick Carlisle's system on offense (114.7). Felton isn't even shooting well, but Dirk and D-Will are carrying this unit to prominence.Â
| 49.3% | 42.2 | 59.3% | 86.5% |
| 17 |
Miami Heat
The Heat hop up two spots in the Power Ratings, but did you know this team is 7.3 points per 100 better when Hassan Whiteside is on the bench? While he's posting and deleting photos of being a caged lion on Instagram, the Heat are just a much better defensive team without him on the floor. It won't keep him from getting paid this summer, but it's still pretty interesting.
| 49.2% | 43.9 | 48.0% | 67.2% |
| 18 |
Utah Jazz
The Jazz have fallen five spots this week, but they remain pretty deadly against the spread. Part of the reason is Quin Snyder has them well-coached enough to be scrappy against most opponents like the Thunder (twice). They'll be tough to believe in long-term until Rudy Gobert comes back into the picture and they start performing on defense.
| 48.6% | 38.5 | 58.3% | 47.8% |
| 19 |
Portland Trail Blazers
Here's a weird stat regarding Damian Lillard: While his scoring average of 24.6 is quite impressive, his points per shot measurement is not. He currently scores 1.225 points per every shot attempt. Who is he behind? Ricky Rubio at 1.232 points per shot. There's a vast chasm in terms of volume, but Lillard needs to be a bit more efficient.
| 48.2% | 37.9 | 48.3% | 47.1% |
| 20 |
Orlando Magic
The Magic are still the NBA's top team against the spread and they're now flirting with the 70 percent threshold. Even though they're still projected to be 10th in our neutral site percentage, the Magic are now making a serious push toward playoff projection. Inserting Channing Frye into the lineup has been key. The Magic are 16 points per 100 better with him playing.
| 47.3% | 40.9 | 69.2% | 35.1% |
| 21 |
Charlotte Hornets
Still not much respect for what the Hornets are doing based on this computer. My theory? The ending of "My Girl" really scarred the computer for life when it comes to bees or bee-related insects. Nobody wanted to see Macaulay Culkin go out that way, especially when he was so sweet to Anna Chlumsky. Either that or it isn't buying into Kemba Walker’s surge.
| 45.6% | 39.8 | 56.0% | 23.8% |
| 22 |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks dropped seven spots in the ratings, despite giving the Warriors their second tough game in as many attempts. What could possibly have then caused them to drop so severely? They got smoked by the Lakers.
| 43.9% | 33.8 | 48.3% | 1.3% |
| 23 |
Sacramento Kings
The only hiccup for the Kings in the past two weeks has been a road loss to the Wolves. Other than that? This team is starting to click nicely. Can't help but wonder where they would be with DeMarcus Cousins healthy. They're 10-9 with him and 1-7 when he's out with an injury or suspension.Â
| 42.9% | 34.0 | 48.2% | 8.5% |
| 24 |
New Orleans Pelicans
Are the Pelicans dangerous? Their 1-9 start shows they probably can't make the postseason. Not even a handful of teams have done that after starting so poorly, and this bad start extended to 1-11. But they're frisky now, going 7-8 since. A frisky pelican is no day at the beach, even though that's where you'll find them.
| 41.2% | 30.0 | 37.0% | 1.0% |
| 25 |
New York Knicks
The Knicks are going streaking more than Frank the Tank at a Snoop Dogg impromptu house concert. After that abysmal showing out West, the Knicks won four straight before losing at home Monday to Orlando. Even if you don't want to believe in James Dolan, computer, please believe in Kristaps Porzingis. Do not resist the revolution.
| 39.0% | 33.6 | 60.7% | 1.1% |
| 26 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
There was a moment in Sir Paul McCartney's life in which he decided he was going to attend a Nets-Wolves game in Brooklyn at 1 in the afternoon on a Sunday. That happened this past weekend and I still can't get over this decision by one of the world's 10 most famous people. Karl-Anthony Towns brings out the stars.Â
| 38.6% | 28.9 | 46.2% | 0.4% |
| 27 |
Brooklyn Nets
I'm at a point in which I have no idea what to say about the Nets anymore, so I'm just going to name a few Nets players I remember. Keith Van Horn. Kerry Kittles. Lucious Harris. Armen Gilliam. Doug Overton. Bostjan Nachbar. Jamie Feick. Ben Uzoh. Yinka Dare.Â
| 36.2% | 27.1 | 55.6% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Denver Nuggets
The Emmanuel Mudiay injury shows the tricky situation the Nuggets are in. This team has enough veteran talent to be bothersome in the West. But because they're giving heavy minutes (when healthy) to a rookie point guard, they slide down the standings. They're about 8.5 points per 100 better with him on the bench, but will it be worth it?
| 34.8% | 30.0 | 46.2% | 0.7% |
| 29 |
Los Angeles Lakers
Kobe Bryant might be getting his legs back, at least that's what we're hoping we're seeing the last six games. Kobe's averaging 18.8 points while shooting 48.9 percent and 36.4 percent from three during that stretch. He even dunked on Clint Capela! Sure, he had to miss the next game because of it, but it's better than what we were seeing by a lot.
| 30.9% | 18.5 | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers hired Mike D'Antoni to be Brett Brown's assistant, which is very much a Jerry Colangelo move. And they just got Kendall Marshall back from injury, which is something Sam Hinkie has been praying for. Will the combination work? In LA two years ago, Marshall led D'Antoni’s offense to a 103.3 rating. The Sixers are currently last at 91.6.
| 24.2% | 13.1 | 39.3% | 0.0% |
Share This Story