Power Ratings: Finally a down year for the West?
The Phoenix Suns are in trouble.
Maybe the majority of the Western Conference is in trouble.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
That's how it feels nearly halfway through the 2015-16 season. For the first time in a very long time, it may not take a lot of wins to reach the No. 7 seed or No. 8 seed in the West. A sub-.500 record may even get you that quick first-round match-up against the Golden State Warriors or San Antonio Spurs.
And because of which teams currently sit outside of the playoff picture in the West, is it possible we already have our eight teams in the West for the 2016 playoffs?
The Warriors, Spurs, Thunder and Clippers are locks. The Grizzlies and Rockets are too talented not to make the final eight. And the Mavericks and Jazz (when healthy) are far more organized and talented than the rest of the teams vying for a postseason berth.
Does anybody believe the Blazers can figure out their defense to make a run (even though they're close), or do we think the firepower of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum is enough to fuel them to the playoffs?
The Kings are a bit of an enigma, but they've been very competitive when DeMarcus Cousins is on the floor.
The Pelicans' start all but guaranteed they won’t be a factor.
That leaves the Wolves (who are far too young, inexperienced) and the Suns (who are beyond imploding) may not get any closer to the postseason than they are right now.
So are the eight teams set or will someone crash the gates?
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
SportsLine still has the Warriors on pace to crack 70 wins, but not grab the all-time record of 72. They're currently one game ahead of the Bulls' pace from 95-96, but the injuries are starting to pile up and they're going to have to decide pretty soon how much the all-time record means to them. Make sure your guys are healthy or they may not be around to do the other thing that Bulls squad did: win the title.
| 79.6% | 70.8 | 62.5% | 100% |
| 2 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Second straight week the Thunder have been above the Spurs, which makes me feel less crazy when I tell people I think they can be there with the Warriors and Spurs when the playoffs come around. They've feasted on an easy schedule the last 15 games (winning 13 of them) but with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, that's exactly what they should do.
| 75.0% | 59.1 | 41.2% | 100% |
| 3 |
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs still have the best net rating in the NBA (plus-14.5) and have moved over a full point in front of the Warriors. They no longer have the best defensive rating of the 3-point era. They're 0.8 points allowed per 100 possessions behind the 03-04 Spurs' defensive rating. But they're the only team outside of the Warriors on pace for 60 or more wins according to SportsLine.
| 71.5% | 62.4 | 68.6% | 100% |
| 4 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
David Blatt is now under a bit of pressure to get the rotation correct because after being so injured for so long, the Cavs now may have too many healthy bodies. It's a good problem to have, but someone between veterans like Richard Jefferson and Mo Williams will have to accept almost non-existent roles. Let's see how he handles this juggling act and whether peace can remain in Cleveland.
| 65.8% | 56.6 | 43.3% | 100% |
| 5 |
Atlanta Hawks
Here's something alarming. It's probably a fluke, but I'm not sure we remember a worse stretch for Kyle Korver shooting the ball. Over his last six games, Korver is 4-of-33 (12.1 percent) on 3-point shots. He went 0-of-18 over the course of two of those games. Korver is now down to 36.1 percent on the season. That would be the worst 3-point accuracy of his career and just the fourth time lower than 40 percent for a season.
| 61.6% | 51.0 | 48.5% | 99.7% |
| 6 |
Boston Celtics
Despite back-to-back losses to the Lakers and Nets, the Celtics manage to hold onto the sixth spot in our Power Ratings. It wouldn't shock me to see them climb up to fifth and have a firm hold of it by the end of January. The schedule for Boston is very East-heavy and it should be able to launch them inexplicably to like a No. 3 seed by February.
| 58.1% | 47.5 | 56.3% | 95.9% |
| 7 |
Toronto Raptors
The trouble with buying into the Raptors is they're even more free throw dependent this season than they were last season. Toronto's free throw rate is 31.7 percent, which is up from the 29.5 percent we saw in 2014-15. It's something that hurt them during the second half of last season and in the playoffs. What do they do when they don't get calls? Can they survive?
| 57.0% | 49.1 | Â 52.9% | 98.6% |
| 8 |
Chicago Bulls
It should be someone's job to punch Jimmy Butler in the mouth right before every halftime the Bulls have. That way he'll be furious in the second half and just start dropping 40 points on opponents every time. It turns him into a possessed man and then he just eviscerates the competition. There's no way this would backfire.
| 56.6% | 49.9 | 40.6% | 98.6% |
| 9 |
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers have won six straight games, they're surviving without Blake Griffin, and they still drop a spot in the Power Ratings from last week. That's kind of brutal. It's probably because only one of those six straight victories has come against a top 15 team in the ratings. They have the second best offense in the NBA during this six-game stretch. They're just fine with Blake taking his time to come back.
| 55.3% | 47.5 | 46.9% | 99.2% |
| 10 |
Memphis Grizzlies
I'm not sure anybody benefits from the neutral site percentage in our top 10 more than the Grizzlies. They're just 7-11 on the road this season. It feels like the Grizzlies are just hanging on by a thread. In their losses, they have an offensive rating of 91.4, which is just 0.2 points higher than the Sixers in losses. They simply can't grind out victories anymore when they struggle to score.
| 54.2% | 44.4 | 44.1% | 96.2% |
| 11 |
Indiana Pacers
December was a rough month for Paul George. He saw his scoring average drop about eight points, his field goal percentage dropped 14 percent, and his 3-point percentage dropped 14 percent. And somehow the Pacers still stayed afloat. Frank Vogel has them defending like the sixth best team in the NBA. Vogel won't get it, but Coach of the Year should see his name in the hat.
| 51.9% | 44.8 | 57.6% | 85.4% |
| 12 |
Detroit Pistons
In the standings, the Pistons are the No. 9 seed, which isn't actually a thing considering we just throw the 9-seeds into the lottery when the season is done. But SportsLine believes in them more than it believes in the Miami Heat. This might have to do with the Pistons playing most of their games on the road so far. A home stand could change a lot for Detroit.
| 51.1% | 42.1 | 56.3%Â | 59.3% |
| 13 |
Houston Rockets
I watched 2.5 hours of Rockets transition defense last week and it was one of the worst things I've ever seen. I've seen The Roommate. I've seen the second American Psycho movie. I've seen Gigli almost three times and I've watched RIPD before. The Rockets' transition defense shook me to my core. Don't ever do that to yourself. How are they this high in the ratings?
| 51.1% | 39.6 | 37.1% | 67.2% |
| 14 |
Dallas Mavericks
When did JJ Barea turn into Steph Curry? Over his last six games, Barea is averaging 17.5 points and 6.2 assists while shooting 55.9 percent from 3-point range. That even includes an 0-of-5 effort too. Maybe he's so comfortable back in Dallas that he's their main answer at point guard the rest of the season?
| 50.3% | 43.5 | 58.8% | 94.1% |
| 15 |
Utah Jazz
The Jazz are without Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Alec Burks and Dante Exum, and yet they still managed to climb two spots in the ratings this week. Favors is basically back and Gobert could be back in two weeks. If the Jazz are able to withstand this stretch without losing ground but gaining it in the West standings, they'll be a lock to make the playoffs this season.
| 50.0% | 40.7 | 54.8% | 74.9% |
| 16 |
Miami Heat
The Heat did see the second largest rise in playoff odds this week, behind only the Jazz. But we won't know if they're top 2 in the East worthy or if they do deserve to fall back here until we see them play more road games. Nobody has played as many home games as the Heat (21), and we don't know if they'll be able to consistently generate offense on the road.
| 49.9% | 44.6 | 50.0% | 79.7% |
| 17 |
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans jump two spots this week, but they're still only projected for 35 victories. They've definitely begun to right the ship in NOLA, but their horrible start will probably prevent them from making any real noise. At a certain point, the Pelicans have to figure out if they want to attempt a quick rebuild by tanking and trading off veterans. Ben Simmons next to Anthony Davis would be something.
| 49.7% | 35.0 | 39.4% | 14.7% |
| 18 |
Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard's been out with plantar fasciitis and during that time, we've seen an incredible display of leadership from C.J. McCollum. The Blazers' guard has averaged 26-6.5.-5.5 over his last six games while shooting nearly 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from downtown. Portland is also 4-2 in these games, which is remarkable considering they're built around Lillard. McCollum an All Star?
| 47.9% | 37.8 | 52.8% | 44.3% |
| 19 |
Orlando Magic
A 10-5 December for the Magic earned Scott Skiles the coach of the month in the East. It also has them two games out of the No. 2 seed in the East. That's how jumbled everything is on that side of the league. It's hard to know if their success is sustainable because their net rating (plus-1) is so mediocre. They're an NBA best 64 percent ATS, however. Great December, but maybe the ride is over?
| 46.7% | 40.9 | 63.6% | 39.8% |
| 20 |
Washington Wizards
John Wall in December: 22.6 points, 11.7 assists, and 4.8 rebounds. He was 46 percent from the field and 37.7 percent from deep. And the Wizards? Well, they still stink and are even more injured than ever. It doesn't matter what John Wall does right now because the Wizards just don't have their identity and they don't have health. No wonder he's upset about All-Star voting.
| 46.0% | 38.6 | 53.1% | 18.3% |
| 21 |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings' season is still a roller coaster and everybody is getting motion sick from it. They could get by on the idea for a while that they were a .500 team or better with DeMarcus Cousins playing, but their free fall recently no longer makes that a valid excuse. They're tied for the fifth-worst defense in the league and they flat-out can't slow anybody down in transition. It's getting bad.
| 45.3% | 34.2 | 45.5% | 8.3% |
| 22 |
Phoenix Suns
Last week, I was wondering how the Suns were still so high in the eyes of SportsLine. This week, they've plummeted 10 spots, got blown out by the Lakers, lost Eric Bledsoe for the season, and their owner is blaming the millennial culture for their lack of resiliency. Apparently, Robert Sarver has no idea that entire league is made up of millennial ages and Andre Miller.
| 44.8% | 30.6 | 40.5% | 1.0% |
| 23 |
Charlotte Hornets
The defense is getting worked right now. Three weeks ago, the Hornets had the sixth-best defense in the NBA. Since then? The Hornets have been 19th in defensive rating and are down to 12th on the season. They also are missing Al Jefferson for a month and a half. SportsLine has been skeptical of the Hornets for quite some time and it looks to be valid. Are we sure the Hornets are that good?
| 42.6% | 39.3 | 46.9% | 22.7% |
| 24 |
Milwaukee Bucks
Jason Kidd is taking time off due to surgery, O.J. Mayo is getting fined for aggressively going after officials, and the defense is currently 27th in the NBA. There isn't much good news in Milwaukee outside of Khris Middleton's shooting, Giannis Antetokounmpo's all-around play, and Jabari Parker dunking on everybody. Temper your expectations and the deer will look just fine. But this team is far from mattering right now.
| 42.2% | 32.9 | 51.4% | 0.7% |
| 25 |
Brooklyn Nets
One of the more brutal losses for the Nets happened with their rotation now that Jarrett Jack is out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL and meniscus. That leaves the Nets with Donald Sloan and Shane Larkin at the point, which sounds like a summer league rotation than regular season tandem. The win over Boston was huge for their ratings, and somehow jumped them over the Knicks.
| 40.7% | 29.2 | 60.6% | 0.0% |
| 26 |
New York Knicks
The fact that the Knicks are below the Nets in the Power Ratings is just insulting. There was a time when Nets-Knicks could potentially become a thing and Jay-Z was tweeting that the city was under new management. Now the Nets are floundering and the Knicks look pretty decent, but SportsLine refuses to buy them. I'm buying and I'll hack the computer eventually to do the same.
| 38.8% | 34.2 | 57.1% | 1.3% |
| 27 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Sam Mitchell is blaming AAU ball for the bad habits of his players. Says it affects their spacing. Are we sure about that? Are we sure it's not the horribly basic and non 3-point threatening offense that isn't getting in the way of their spacing? Sam is under a lot of pressure to develop players, but there has to be a mirror somewhere for him to look into.
| 34.9% | 25.4 | 42.4% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Denver Nuggets
Kenneth Faried had a terrifying moment over the weekend and there were reports about concerns over whether or not the Manimal may have cracked vertebrae. So naturally, he played the next night and everything was fine. I don't understand the Nuggets at all this season. They're impossible to predict.
| 33.6% | 28.1 | 45.5% | 0.1% |
| 29 |
Los Angeles Lakers
There was a point in their blowout victory over the Suns that the Lakers were throwing lob plays to Roy Hibbert because everything was going so well. That's how disrespectful the Lakers were being toward Phoenix. Now they're on a three-game win streak and being disrespectful to their own draft hopes. Slow down, Lakers. You don't want to have pride now.
| 28.9% | 19.4 | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are signing Elton Brand to a contract for the rest of the year. You know what that means, right? No, they're not trying to win a lot more games. This can only mean that Just Wright 2 is on its way. Toward the end of Just Wright, Queen Latifah was being recruited by Elton Brand for the Sixers. Now? Maybe she's there to partner up with Jahlil Okafor and find his inner peace.
| 20.3% | 11.6 | 38.7% | 0.0% |
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