Power Ratings: Are we all too hard on the Cavaliers?
Since the calendar turned into December, we haven't seen the top two of the Power Ratings yield anything except the Golden State Warriors and the San Antonio Spurs as the top two powers in the NBA.
The Warriors and Spurs are both on historic treks through the league, and nobody has really been able to challenge that order for a few months now.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
That is until this week.
Does it make sense? Have we been caught up in the drama of the Cavaliers instead of recognizing that they may still have the best player in the world and an offense that should be able to travel anywhere and put up points?
Do we dismiss the incredible defensive team they became last postseason and just wait for them to prove it again?
Have the Cavs been the second best team and the best challenger to the Warriors’ crown this entire time?
Maybe that discredits the Spurs too much and doesn't factor in the easy road in the East enough, but the Cavs jump to the No. 2 spot this week in surprising fashion.
Only they will determine just how big of a threat they can be when they get to the Finals. For now, it's important to remember they're deep, they have weapons, and they like each other enough ... for now ...
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
As many expected, the Lakers could be the difference between the Golden State Warriors breaking the Bulls' record of 72 wins and not breaking it. If you're the Thunder, you can only laugh at that game. If you're the Warriors, you can only laugh at that game. The Warriors also need to go 18-3 in the final 21 games to reach a new record. Those Bulls were 18-3 in final 21 games.
| 77.5% | 72.2 | 57.6% | 100% |
| 2 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
This is the big surprise this week. Not since November 30 have we seen the Cavaliers projected higher on a neutral site than the Spurs. And it comes at a time in which LeBron James appears to be going insane on social media. The capper was probably him posting a drawing of him as Batman while wearing his own shoes. Things are getting weird in the NBA.
| 70.8% | 59.4 | 46.6% | 100% |
| 3 |
San Antonio Spurs
So why did the Spurs fall to third? That's a good question. They've won 14 of their past 15 games. Nine of those 13 wins were by double digits. The Spurs are on pace for 70 wins, even though SportsLine is projecting only 66 victories. Somehow this makes the Cavs a better team on a neutral site than the Spurs. I don't agree, but the computer is just crazy enough to be ahead of everybody else on this.
| 70.6% | 66.8 | 61.3% | 100% |
| 4 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The loss to the Clippers was brutal because of their fourth quarter collapse. The loss to the Warriors was expected because a.) it's the Warriors and b.) it was on a back-to-back following the Clippers game. Still, the Thunder have dropped a lot of fourth quarter leads this season. Clutch offense is good but clutch defense is bad, and yet, it feels like they need to play Cameron Payne and Enes Kanter more. Just start gunning in crunch time.
| 64.5% | 54.5 | 39.3% | 100% |
| 5 |
Los Angeles Clippers
How worried should the Thunder be about this Clippers team? The Clippers are within shouting distance of the No. 3 seed and it might behoove both parties to swap. If you're the Thunder, you probably want to face the Warriors earlier rather than later. If you're the Clippers, do you want some confidence in knowing you beat the Spurs last year? This team has grown without Blake Griffin and he's back soon.
| 60.4% | 52.3 | 51.7% | 99.8% |
| 6 |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are back up four spots after last week when they fell five spots the week before. This is basically the end of a bungee jump for them where they're just bouncing up and down as they try to find their momentum and hope they get pulled back up. Or do you just unharness and then have to climb up to the bridge? I've never bungee jumped but I bet Meyers Leonard is all about it.
| 60.2% | 43.4 | 56.3% | 98.7% |
| 7 |
Toronto Raptors
Can't kill them for losing to the Rockets after beating the Jazz and Blazers in the same week, but it's a little surprising the Raptors don't project into a better team than SportsLine says. Why aren't they ahead of the Clippers and Blazers right now? Is everything in the West that much better? The answer is probably yes when it comes to the Clips, but this team should be ahead of Portland.
| 58.5% | 54.4 | 53.3% | 100% |
| 8 |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have flirted with the fifth spot before here, but the Cavaliers reminded all of us just exactly where they stand. Boston is a very good team that has convinced SportsLine to do a 180 since the start of the season. However, their lack of star power and offensive firepower means there is a very definite ceiling when measuring them against the league's best.
| 57.8% | 48.6 | 55.6% | 99.3% |
| 9 |
Atlanta Hawks
Want to know how weird post All-Star break stuff can be? It's not a large sample, but the best Hawks lineup since the break has been Dennis Schroder, Tim Hardaway Jr., Thabo Sefolosha, Mike Scott and Al Horford. It's their second most used lineup in this time span and they're a plus-23.3 per 100 possessions. This world doesn't always have to make sense. Sometimes the sun sets before it rises.
| 54.6% | 45.2 | 50.8% | 92.5% |
| 10 |
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are hanging on by a thread. Currently tied with the Pistons in the standings but SportsLine projects them as a top 10 team. Luckily for Chicago, Jimmy Butler is back and he looked just fine in his return. They're also getting Nikola Mirotic back. Maybe this Bulls team is getting healthy at just the right time to fend off the Pistons and Wizards from sneaking into the playoffs?
| 54.5% | 43.3 | 39.3% | 73.2% |
| 11 |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs aren't quite the lock to make the playoffs as SportsLine makes them out to be, in my opinion. They're only 3.5 games ahead of the Jazz at this point, and their crunch time sets revolve around a Deron Williams renaissance and Raymond Felton playing perimeter defense. I tip my cap to Rick Carlisle this season, but the next nine games are against playoff teams or teams on the bubble.
| 53.3% | 42.0 | 53.2% | 92.3% |
| 12 |
Miami Heat
A huge jump for the Heat, leapfrogging six spots this week thanks to a giant increase in neutral site percentage by nearly six percent. And now the Heat have almost guaranteed themselves a playoff spot, despite the absence of Chris Bosh. Hassan Whiteside is huge in his bench role too, but biggest change has been the free throw line. Before the All-Star break: 53.7 percent. Since? 74.5 percent. What a bizarre turnaround for him.
| 51.6% | 46.5 | 53.2%Â | 98.2% |
| 13 |
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons didn't really do anything wrong this week to fall a spot. The loss to the Knicks wasn't great. The loss to the Spurs was predictable. The win over the Blazers was a great way to bounce back. This team is still figuring out their rotation, but Tobias Harris looks good in the system. He's hitting 44.4 percent of his threes so far (three attempts per game) and he's scoring at a higher rate than in Orlando.
| 50.5% | 41.9 | 52.5% | 54.5% |
| 14 |
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are picking up Ty Lawson for the stretch run, and it's time for him to prove he can actually contribute to a good team. Indiana needs a quality backup point guard. They've used a lot of Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey moonlighting at the backup position when George Hill is out of the game, but another attacking guard with great quickness should fit in. But is Lawson still that guy?
| 50.1% | 42.9 | 50.0% | 75.8% |
| 15 |
Utah Jazz
The Jazz still project ahead of the Rockets, but they need a lot of help to make the playoffs, as you can see in their playoff odds comparison. Utah should be getting Alec Burks back soon, and then the Jazz can go back to the triple-wing lineup Quin Snyder loves so much. The triple-wing lineup with Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors alongside them is a plus-14.8 per 100 possessions this season.
| 49.3% | 38.9 | 47.5% | 35.8% |
| 16 |
Houston Rockets
Well, we're not to the point where the Rockets are trying for entire games, but they are putting up big second half efforts to grab control of the outcomes. It's kind of awful that we have to wait until the second half of games for them to care enough to play good defense. It's like the three-second delay for a Freddie Prinze Jr. reaction when he was on 24 that one season.
| 48.9% | 40.0 | 42.9% | 72.5% |
| 17 |
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are 6-3 since the All-Star break and are doing a great job of surviving without Marc Gasol so far. A big part of that is an easy schedule in which they've beaten the Wolves, Lakers (twice), Kings, Nuggets and Jazz. But two of those losses have come to the Phoenix Suns in the past couple games. Even without Gasol, how is this possible? This is like Leo beating up the bear in The Revenant.
| 48.2% | 46.0 | 51.7% | 99.7% |
| 18 |
Charlotte Hornets
Up two spots this week, the Hornets are feasting on an easy schedule. Wait, do hornets feast? Do hornets actually devour anything? Can you be completely satiated off of pollen and nectar? If your job is to transfer pollen from one plant to another, is that the bug equivalent of getting high on your own supply? I'm not exactly an entomologist.
| 47.9% | 44.0 | 53.3% | 87.2% |
| 19 |
Washington Wizards
Wizards drop three spots this week. SportsLine wasn't impressed with the wins over the Sixers and Wolves. The losses to the Cavs and Pacers seem to have mattered much more and now the Wiz find themselves in 10th place, 1.5 games out of the playoffs in the East. SportsLine puts their playoff odds at 18.8 percent. This is exactly what you expect out of a Randy Wittman coached team.
| 47.3% | 39.7 | 51.6% | 18.8% |
| 20 |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks seemed to be surging a week ago, but now they've dropped down three spots. The good news for Milwaukee is the legs are officially under Jabari Parker. Since the All-Star break, he's putting up 21.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and a true shooting percentage of 55.8. He's also playing a ridiculous 39.1 minutes per game in that time. He even hit two 3-pointers. That ACL is behind him ... well not literally ...
| 46.5% | 35.0 | 51.6% | 0.3% |
| 21 |
New Orleans Pelicans
Jrue Holiday is ... back? Since the turn of the calendar into 2016, Holiday has played a lot of minutes and been spectacular in them. He's averaging 30.1 minutes, 18.3 points, 7.3 assists, and 3.7 rebounds. He's making 43.4 percent of his shots and the Pelicans look sort of good when he's on the court. Imagine if he had been healthy all season. Where would they be right now?
| 43.0% | 30.9 | 42.6% | 0.0% |
| 22 |
New York Knicks
For all of the flack Carmelo Anthony seems to get, this Knicks team can't survive without him. Their offense falls completely off the map (down 6.7 points per 100 possessions) and the defense is actually worse too. They don't rebound their own missed shots as much and they can't hit shots either. Melo has his faults, but let's not pass over how good and important he still is for this Knicks team.
| 41.1% | 33.0 | 53.1% | 0.0% |
| 23 |
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets lost three times this past week and won an overtime game in Denver. Apparently that was enough to increase their neutral site percentage by almost 2.5 percent. It shot them up three spots in the Power Ratings and now they're ranking in at 23. More importantly for Boston, the Nets' loss to the Wolves moved them two games ahead of Minnesota in lottery odds. It's the difference between a 29.1 percent chance at a top 3 pick and a 39.7 percent chance.
| 41.0% | 25.4 | 51.6% | 0.0% |
| 24 |
Orlando Magic
Over the last five years, six players have posted a rebounding rate of at least 15 percent, an assist rate of at least 10 percent, and a turnover rate no higher than 10 percent. Al Jefferson did it four times. Anthony Davis, Zach Randolph, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Jared Sullinger have each done it once. Aaron Gordon is doing it this season. His first year was interrupted by the foot injury. This year, we're getting a glimpse at his future brilliance.
| 40.3% | 34.8 | 55.0% | 0.2% |
| 25 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Since the All-Star break and the Bucks inquiring about acquiring Ricky Rubio, the Wolves' point guard is putting up some pretty interesting numbers. In the nine games since, he's shooting 41.5 percent from the field and 40.9 percent from deep. His last seven games have shooting splits of 46.3/44.4/90.0. They're probably just outliers, but Rubio has responded quite nicely. Interesting to see how he finishes out the season.
| 40.2% | 26.9 | 45.2% | 0.0% |
| 26 |
Denver Nuggets
Emmanuel Mudiay looks much better (in terms of impact) since the All-Star break, but here is a weird stat involving him and the Nuggets. Three rookies since the implementation of the 3-point line have played more than 1,400 minutes and had a true shooting percentage under 42: Junior Harrington, Mark Macon, and Mudiay. All three were rookies for the Nuggets. Altitude is a crazy thing.
| 40.0% | 32.5 | 55.0% | 0.0% |
| 27 |
Sacramento Kings
SportsLine never bought into the Kings. Even when they were 20-23 back in late January and holding (briefly) onto the No. 8 seed in the West, the Power Ratings never had them higher than 21st. Now, they've dropped below the Timberwolves. They recently followed a three-game winning streak into losing five of their next six games. They've made progress this year but were always doomed from the start.
| 39.3% | 34.2 | 45.0% | 1.0% |
| 28 |
Philadelphia 76ers
In order for the Sixers to end up tying the worst record in NBA history, they'd have to go a measly 1-18 the rest of the season. That seems impossible, even for them. Except for that little fact in which they started out the season 1-30. I think this is a better team than that 1-30 start, but they've lost 12 in a row for a reason. Sometimes you're running the tank and sometimes the tank is running you.
| 38.4% | 14.2 | 45.2% | 0.0% |
| 29 |
Phoenix Suns
There was a point in which the Suns were 12-16. That's not exactly throwing down the gauntlet, breaking a beer bottle over the counter of a bar, and yelling, "Who wants some?" However, it is/was a fairly decent record. Since then? The Suns are 5-30 and two of those five wins have come in the past five games against the Grizzlies. Is this more concerning for Phoenix or Memphis?
| 29.7% | 22.9 | 41.3% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Los Angeles Lakers
The surprise victory over the Warriors couldn't even get the Lakers out of the 30th spot. They're still the sad caboose in this locomotive behind the Suns. But how about that win over the Dubs? Maybe it was the Kobe socks that inspired them? I know Byron Scott said he challenged their manhood, but there's no way anybody takes him seriously still.
| 23.9% | 18.3 | 46.9% | 0.0% |
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