Power Ratings: Are the Raptors a real threat?
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
This shouldn't shock anybody, but especially after the Golden State Warriors' incredible victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder this past weekend, it's hard to even picture anybody else finding a way to defeat this Warriors squad.
Aside from recreating the movie Speed with their team buses to keep them from getting to the game on time, it's hard to imagine how you slow them down.
While their dominance is unquestioned right now, the volatility of the rest of the league couldn't be any greater.
This week we've seen huge swings in the Power Ratings, with nine different teams seeing changes in the ratings by at least three spots from last week. The Clippers, Raptors, Pacers, Wizards, Mavericks and Bucks all saw significant jumps -- showing just how up-for-grabs everything outside of the top 4 spots remain to be.
The Blazers, Heat and Pelicans took the biggest hits, showing just how fleeting Power Ratings success can be from week to week.
Despite being in the final stretch of the season, the NBA is still trying to find where it belongs behind the Warriors. Is playing for second, third, fourth, or even as low as 10th place actually a win for some teams?
It is this year, thanks to the Warriors.
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
Put the Warriors down double digits in the fourth quarter. Out-rebound them 62-32 in the game. Post a 37 and 15 from your star forward. Post a 15 and 20 from your defensive presence. 26-13-7 from your star point guard. Hold the rest of the team to 2-of-16 from 3-point range. Steph Curry is still beating you with 12 threes and the final one coming from 40 feet out. Good luck out there.
| 77.5% | 72.9 | 58.9% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
OK, it's not Steph Curry level excellence, but after the Spurs beat the Jazz by 18 this week, Gregg Popovich talked about how it's a big help to face a defensive-minded team like Utah because it helps them work on their execution. Regular season games against possible playoff teams are just practice for this Spurs team as they gear up for the Warriors.
| 71.0% | 66.2 | 62.7% | 100% |
| 3 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
It's not the end of the world, but this was not a good week for the Cavs. After that dominant win over the Thunder, they went 1-3 with losses to Detroit, Toronto, and the Wizards. The Wizards loss happened without LeBron James, in a couple of ways. He didn’t play in the game and they were playing so poorly, he left for the locker room halfway through the fourth quarter.
| 68.4% | 58.6 | 45.5% | 100% |
| 4 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Two matchups with the Warriors and they've played them pretty well. Nearly came back in Oakland to take them down. And it took an ethereal performance by Curry this weekend to take them down in OKC. Now they try to regroup to troubleshoot against the Dubs one more time on Thursday and take a better feeling into a possible postseason matchup. Nothing will test their resolve and competitiveness more.
| 68.3% | 55.7 | 39.7% | 100% |
| 5 |
Los Angeles Clippers
Here's the remarkable thing about this Clippers season. They're 17-13 with Blake Griffin, arguably a top 10 player in the NBA, and 21-7 without him. Here's the frustrating thing for the standards the Clippers have set for themselves: they're going to be the "same ole Clippers" when they end up not making it past the second round. Only thing that can boost their reputation this season is taking the Warriors to six games or more.
| 62.0% | 52.3 | 52.7% | 99.8% |
| 6 |
Toronto Raptors
Don't look now, but the Raptors are creeping up toward that top spot in the East. After their win over Cleveland this weekend, they're two games back. The last five games of the regular season could see them really push for it. They play Atlanta, Indiana, New York, Philly, and Brooklyn. There's a big projection gap between the two at the moment, but this could get very interesting at the end.
| 58.9% | 54.1 | 54.4% | 100% |
| 7 |
Boston Celtics
The climb of the Clippers and Raptors this week knocked the Celtics down a couple of spots, but the optimism is still everywhere with them. The loss to Minnesota was bad, but they handled their business the rest of the week. They've moved up to tied with Portland for the third-best team against the spread this season.
| 58.1% | 47.8 | 55.9% | 98.9% |
| 8 |
Chicago Bulls
SportsLine is bullish on the Chicago Bulls (pun always intended), despite the fact that they're barely hanging onto the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. A big part of it is what they project to look like when Jimmy Butler is back in the lineup. For the time being, they're actually missing Derrick Rose. This could be confidence building for the role players on the team, but that confidence doesn't get a boost unless they actually make the postseason.
| 58.0% | 44.6 | 39.7% | 85.9% |
| 9 |
Atlanta Hawks
What happened to the Hawks' pick-and-roll attack? Is it possible that DeMarre Carroll meant that much to it last year? They've gone from seventh in PnR plays to 25th this season. Throw in the mediocre (especially for them) 3-point shooting, and it's amazing this team still projects as highly as it does. This isn't a 60-win team, but they should still be a 50-win team and project for "just" 45.
| 57.4% | 45.1 | 48.3% | 90.4% |
| 10 |
Portland Trail Blazers
OK, Portland as the fifth best team in the Power Ratings was probably a little optimistic by SportsLine, and maybe was overcompensating a bit. They fall five spots this week after a 3-1 stretch, and the one loss coming to Houston. Four more games on this six-game road trip, then home for the Wizards, and then to Oakland for the Warriors. We'll probably find out just how good they are in this stretch.
| 56.0% | 43.5 | 56.7% | 98.4% |
| 11 |
Indiana Pacers
OT loss to Miami. Win over Knicks. Home losses to the Hornets and Blazers. Now Paul George is openly questioning the toughness of his team. This season has been a success for the Pacers in the first year of their retooling, but I'm not sure they look like anything other than some first-round testing in the playoffs. They need George to be better and they need everybody to step up. Holding on barely at the moment.
| 55.2% | 43.7 | 48.3% | 82.1% |
| 12 |
Detroit Pistons
Pistons run off four straight wins, including over the Cavs (back-to-back) and the Raptors. This follows a five-game losing streak that was more frustrating than anything for this team. At some point, it feels like the offense has to come around for them. Despite all of the roster changes for Detroit, they're almost the exact same efficiency on pick-and-roll plays this year as last season. Someone hit shots.
| 54.8% | 43.0 | 53.5%Â | 71.4% |
| 13 |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs are up three spots this week because this rotation Rick Carlisle is running with appears to be more conducive to postseason success. However, this team (exemplified this week) is still just picking off bad teams and struggling against good. Beat Philly, Denver, and Minnesota. They're 23-9 against sub-.500 teams. Lost to OKC. They're 9-19 against good-to-great teams. That seems troublesome for the playoffs.
| 50.8% | 41.1 | 54.2% | 85.1% |
| 14 |
Utah Jazz
Understandable loss to the Spurs at home and an inexcusable home defeat at the hands of the Nets showed some struggles for the Jazz and their postseason hopes. They're just outside the No. 8 seed and battling with Portland and Houston. Good news is they're going to get Alec Burks back soon and then shouldn't have any more excuses for not building toward the postseason. They've endured a lot of injuries this season but should still finish .500 or better.
| 50.0% | 39.5 | 49.1% | 54.1% |
| 15 |
Memphis Grizzlies
We're only four games into the Lance Stephenson experience in Memphis since the trade, but we should check in on how he's fitting in with the team. They're putting up 111.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. That's fantastic. They're giving up 121.2 for a net rating of minus-9.6 per 100 possessions. Well, that was fun while it lasted.
| 48.9% | 45.9 | 50.0% | 99.5% |
| 16 |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are up four spots since last week, and they're really playing inspired basketball since the All-Star break. Some of this is skewed with a win over a Cavs team that didn't have LeBron, but the Markieff Morris era is going well defensively. In his six games so far, the Wizards are giving up just 95.5 points per 100 with him on the floor. Offense is under 100, but their defensive identity looks to have returned.
| 48.0% | 40.0 | 53.5% | 23.4% |
| 17 |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are surging at the moment, also up four spots from last week despite losses to the Celtics and Pistons. Much like the Wizards since the All-Star break, the Bucks may have finally recaptured their defensive identity. They're just 2-3 in this time but their defense has improved 6.2 points per 100 possessions since the break. Are we finally back to competent Bucks basketball? Houston, Indy, Minnesota, and OKC will let us know this week.
| 45.9% | 34.9 | 50.9% | 0.3% |
| 18 |
Miami Heat
The Heat's pickup of Joe Johnson was a nice addition to their team, because it means they no longer have to pretend Gerald Green should be in the rotation. He's been a shooter who can't shoot for them. He's just 31.3 percent from 3-point range this season. He's been better defensively than you'd expect, but he's mostly carried by a second unit doing great defensive things. He needs an open offense to thrive and this isn't that.
| 45.8% | 44.9 | 53.5% | 88.7% |
| 19 |
Houston Rockets
Their play lately still can't get me to want to analyze the basketball side of them, so here's another quick Freddie Prinze Jr. movie review instead. His accent and pitching motion in Summer Catch seem to overshadow all of the befuddling scenes with Brian Dennehy. Brian went for a Yogi Berra/Tommy Lasorda mix and he'd have pulled it off if not for Prinze looking like a stunt double they forgot to sub out for the real actor.
| 45.5% | 39.2 | 44.1% | 58.6% |
| 20 |
Charlotte Hornets
The transformation of this offense in just one year by Steve Clifford has been entirely impressive. They've been a league average 3-point shooting team while knocking down the most 3-pointers in franchise history with 24 games to go. If they could be healthy all season, how well would they project? Would they be in the top 15 of Power Ratings? They're as resilient and adaptable as any team in the East.
| 44.4% | 42.3 | 50.9% | 58.4% |
| 21 |
New Orleans Pelicans
Just when it looked like the Pelicans were surging toward competence, they fall four spots this week and look more like the team we saw in the first month of the season. Good news heading into next year: Jrue Holiday looks healthy and he's been their most effective player measured by net rating. He's keeping them competitive and is a perfect running mate with Anthony Davis.
| 44.4% | 33.5 | 41.4% | 1.0% |
| 22 |
Orlando Magic
It's pretty amazing the Magic's ATS number has held as long as it has. Even through the tough 2016 stretch (7-19), they've remained pretty steady between 55 and 60 percent against the spread. Even though Scott Skiles didn't extract a postseason berth out of them, it does appear the Magic are still playing above expectations on most nights. You're not putting that on a media guide, but it's a step in the right direction.
| 43.0% | 35.8 | 56.1% | 0.6% |
| 23 |
Sacramento Kings
Lots of struggles for the Kings this season, but finding the right big man next to DeMarcus Cousins has been rough. The Cousins pairing with Kosta Koufos has been pretty bad. The pairing with rookie Willie Cauley-Stein has been pretty solid, considering the injuries to WCS and the lack of continuity. The best one? The Kings are plus-6.1 per 100 possessions with Quincy Acy and Cousins on the court together. What a weird season.
| 40.6% | 34.8 | 44.6% | 3.2% |
| 24 |
New York Knicks
The Kurt Rambis era isn't off to a spectacular start. For all of Derek Fisher's faults as a coach, he had them seemingly much more competitive than what we've seen through seven or so games with Rambis at the helm. The defense has fallen apart and he's not happy with the play of Carmelo Anthony, nor the help Melo is getting. The craziest thing? There's a chance he's the coach next year too. Secretly tanking 2016-17 like they did 2014-15?
| 40.2% | 33.1 | 52.5% | 0.0% |
| 25 |
Denver Nuggets
Here's an interesting tidbit about the Emmanuel Mudiay-Gary Harris combination. Denver is a minus-4.0 with the two of them on the court together. Not good, but also not a disaster. When you take Harris off the court, the team with Mudiay is a minus-5.3. Leave Harris on and take Mudiay off and the team is a minus-5.3. The mirror image of this combination no matter what it is shows consistency at least.
| 39.9% | 33.0 | 55.4% | 0.3% |
| 26 |
Brooklyn Nets
As bad as the Nets are, they're still above 50 percent against the spread this season. They're way scrappier and tougher than we acknowledge. We should also recognize that Brook Lopez is a monster. Since the break, he's averaging 23.2 points, 8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.8 blocks. He's keeping them competitive almost every night, but nobody seems to notice or care. He deserves better.
| 38.6% | 24.4 | 51.7% | 0.0% |
| 27 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Are the Timberwolves making actual progress right now? Sam Mitchell has gone away from Kevin Garnett (injury) and Tayshaun Prince (he's Tayshaun Prince), and it's caused the offense to pop. They have the best offense in the NBA since February 1. The problem? They have the second-worst defense during this time and the lack of veterans shows the holes there. But they're fun to watch at least.
| 37.3% | 26.9 | 45.8% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Philadelphia 76ers
It's astounding how much better the Sixers appear to be so far without Jahlil Okafor. With him and Nerlens Noel in the game together, the Sixers have a net rating of minus-20. Take Noel out of the game and it's a minus-14. Put Noel in and take Okafor out and it's a minus-6.1. It doesn't mean a lot yet, but that pairing is just not clicking at all.
| 34.7% | 15.0 | 44.8% | 0.0% |
| 29 |
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are 2-33 against teams with a .500 record or better this season. The two wins coming against the Pistons and Celtics. Over last 10 years, only 2011-12 Bobcats and 2013-14 Bucks have finished with no more than two wins against non-losing teams. But at least Magic Johnson is openly telling Jim Buss on Twitter to go sign Kevin Durant. That's got to be tampering, right?
| 30.8% | 17.5 | 46.7% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Phoenix Suns
Robert Sarver already blamed millenials for the demise of his team. Now he's penning open letters to Suns fans. Since the Suns fired their two assistants in late December, every team in the NBA has at least double the wins the Suns do (3). They also have the worst net rating (minus-14.6). Next worse are the Lakers at minus-9.3. These damn millenials!
| 25.7% | 20.7 | 39.0% | 0.0% |
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