Power Ratings: Are the Knicks really on the come?
It might be time to finally start taking the New York Knicks seriously this season.
It's always a good policy to be hesitant when it comes to any projected success for James Dolan's franchise.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
We loved what Phil Jackson did to this roster this past offseason and we were intrigued by the prospects of Kristaps Porzingis, but it was the Knicks and you felt an obligation to protect your expectations.
SportsLine certainly wanted to keep things conservative. Even in the climbing moments of this roller coaster season for the Knicks, the SportsLine Projection Model didn't really buy in to what was happening in New York.
Disasters like Phoenix and Houston have been higher all season long, but the Knicks haven't been able to gain any traction outside of the bottom six teams.
This time around, it might finally be time for the Knicks to be given some credit.
They're back on a climb of this roller coaster, Porzingis is the real deal, Carmelo Anthony is playing much better, and the Knicks' supporting cast has developed from a bunch guys who either made you laugh or made you ask, "who?" into guys you can't believe how well they're playing ... and Sasha Vujacic, who is still very bad.
New York is on the rise this week, and while it's merely a modest improvement, it feels like they're starting to gain some real traction.
Can you believe in them as a playoff team?
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
I couldn't pick between the two insane stats here, so I'll just lay them both out there. Since the Warriors' loss to the Bucks, Draymond Green is averaging 17.3 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists while shooting 48.6 from the field and 55.3 percent from downtown. Also since the Warriors' first loss, Dubs are a minus-11 net rating with Stephen Curry off the floor and a plus-31.2 with him on.
| 80.4% | 72.1 | 63.9% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are back in the No. 2 spot in the Power Ratings and it's probably where they should stay the rest of the season (unless they can eclipse the Warriors). Since the Spurs dropped to a pedestrian 14-4, they've won 18 of their past 20 games. They're also now the best team against the spread this season at 68.4 percent. Are we sure they're not the most dominant?
| 72.5% | 63.8 | 68.4% | 100% |
| 3 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are now Houston Rockets bad against the spread and only the Wolves and Pelicans are worse. They drop below the Spurs this week and really are lucky to be above the Cavs right now. This team has one of the best net ratings for quarters one through three, but there's a huge drop-off in the fourth quarter. They've got to figure out how to finish games to be elite.
| 68.4% | 55.4 | 39.5% | 100% |
| 4 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Kyrie Irving has been back for eight games and in those eight games, the lineup of Irving-J.R. Smith-LeBron-Love-Tristan is outscoring opponents by 23 points per 100 possessions. They are obliterating teams with this lineup, thanks to an absurd 62 percent eFG. This should project the Cavs over 60 wins soon and it should also see them climb above 50 percent ATS.
| 67.7% | 58.5 | 44.1% | 100% |
| 5 |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are sitting as a virtual lock for the playoffs, according to SportsLine. They're also on pace for 52.7 wins on the season, which would project for the fifth highest in the NBA. They're also the last team on this list that cracks 60 percent on neutral site percentage. This isn't the 60-win team of last year, but this Hawks team is still really difficult to deal with on random NBA nights.
| 65.5% | 52.7 | 50.0% | 100% |
| 6 |
Toronto Raptors
Things feel a bit shaky with this Raptors team right now. They're projected for 50 wins and a good bet against the spread, but their four most used lineups this season are all negatives when it comes to net rating. How is that possible if they're projected toward being a Top 6 team? Especially now that DeMarre Carroll may miss two months? Is the bottom going to fall out?
| 58.6% | 50.3 | 55.3% | 99.7% |
| 7 |
Boston Celtics
This Celtics team is falling fast in the real standings but SportsLine is still buying in, putting them at seventh. Maybe the computer isn't expecting them to play David Lee much anymore. His minutes have fallen and he's not thrilled about that. He wants to play. Problem with that is the Celtics are nine points per 100 possessions worse with Lee playing and seven points worse on offense.
| 58.2% | 46.1 | Â 52.8% | 92.7% |
| 8 |
Chicago Bulls
I don't want to get too excited because we've all been set up for sadness over the past five years, but check out Derrick Rose's numbers over his last five games. He's scoring 19.2 points and making 48.8 percent of his shots. He still can't hit 3s and his assist-to-turnover ratio is 4.4:3.4, but this is at least a start toward not wondering whether it should be Rose or Kirk Hinrich in 2016.
| 56.9% | 50.3 | 42.9% | 99.1% |
| 9 |
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are on fire, winning nine in a row and eight of those wins coming without Blake Griffin. Chris Paul is playing out of his mind, but J.J. Redick may be the key to this run right now. He's scoring 18 points in 28.8 minutes and shooting 52.9 percent from the field and 52.8 percent from deep. Clips are a plus-24.8 with Redick playing during these past nine games.
| 55.8% | 49.7 | 48.6% | 99.7% |
| 10 |
Memphis Grizzlies
If we're ever going to see the Memphis Grizzlies soar this season, it's going to be between now and the All-Star break. Over their next 14 games, they only play three of those against an opponent above .500 on the season. They're a virtual lock for the playoffs at this point, according to SportsLine, but dominating this stretch will go a long way.
| 54.6% | 45.3 | 47.4% | 98.6% |
| 11 |
Indiana Pacers
The slump in December for Paul George has not gone away so far in January. PG13 is shooting just 40 percent this month and 32.7 percent from deep. This team is squeaking by at the moment, but as long as they keep holding on with defense and improved big man play, things should come around for George. Once they do, the Pacers can take off again, but it's touchy right now.
| 53.1% | 45.2 | 56.8% | 90.4% |
| 12 |
Detroit Pistons
A 3-0 week gave the Pistons a huge jump (up 24.6 percent) in their playoff odds. They're only the No. 7 seed at the moment, but SportsLine feels pretty good about Stan Van Gundy's squad pulling through all of this. The question I have is will it be possible to get two All-Stars from Detroit? Andre Drummond could get voted in and Reggie Jackson is deserving.
| 52.3% | 44.4 | 60.0%Â | 83.9% |
| 13 |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets also saw a huge jump in playoff odds (up 21.6 percent) after taking two against the Jazz and beating the Pacers. Houston has corrected things since December 1 (12-8), but they're still just barely a positive (plus-0.6 per 100) with James Harden on the floor. They're plus-9.3 with him on the bench. Houston remains a complete enigma to everybody right now.
| 51.3% | 41.2 | 39.5% | 88.7% |
| 14 |
Miami Heat
Is this team just much better without Hassan Whiteside on the floor? For such an intimidating shot blocker, they're 7.1 points per 100 better defensively when he's on the bench. They're also 4.3 points per 100 better when he's on the bench. It shouldn't hurt his free agent value, but it seems like Miami would be crazy to throw a ton of money his way this summer.
| 49.5% | 44.1 | 50.0% | 78.8% |
| 15 |
Utah Jazz
The Jazz had been treading water without Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, and Alec Burks for several games, but now that's all changed. Gobert is back from his knee sprain and the team has already transformed itself. Before Gobert's injury, Utah had the 11th best defense. During Rudy's absence, they were 27th. In three games back? Back down to seventh. All these injuries and they're the No. 8 seed.
| 49.4% | 40.8 | 55.6% | 83.8% |
| 16 |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs fell two spots this week but remain a fantastic play against the spread. And despite being way down in the neutral site percentage compared to other teams, the Mavs' 96.6 percent playoff odds make them a pretty sure bet. Everybody on this team right now is just better than what opponents are expecting from them, and Rick Carlisle is wielding this so perfectly.
| 49.1% | 43.4 | 57.9% | 96.6% |
| 17 |
Phoenix Suns
Since falling so dramatically in the Power Ratings last week, the Suns have now rallied to climb five spots this week. Why is SportsLine falling all over itself for one Phoenix win over the Hornets? Do not trick yourself into believing in this dead team or I will turn their blurb into nothing but Smash Mouth lyrics the rest of the season. You don't think I'll do it?!
| 47.0% | 31.4 | 41.0% | 1.9% |
| 18 |
Washington Wizards
In the 15 games since Bradley Beal went down with another stress reaction, the Wizards are barely hanging on for life at 7-8. They've been pretty bad on defense during this stretch but are making it work offensively by shooting 40 percent from deep during this time. The Wizards are still the 11th worst offense in the NBA right now, but they're staying afloat with guys like Jared Dudley shooting 48 percent from three since Beal went down.
| 46.8% | 38.7 | 54.3% | 18.6% |
| 19 |
New Orleans Pelicans
Would anybody blame this team for blowing it up right now? Move Ryan Anderson for an asset. Move all of their prime wing players like Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon at some point. Become an awful team and put a great prospect next to Anthony Davis. It feels like they're hanging on for a Disney story nobody has interest in writing.
| 46.3% | 32.1 | 38.9% | 3.0% |
| 20 |
Orlando Magic
The Magic are plummeting with their playoff odds (down 26.2 percent) and they're finally below 60 percent against the spread. They've lost five out of six games and their schedule doesn't get any easier after the Sixers' game. The good news is they hardly play over the next week and a half so they can try to figure out how to get their backcourt right.
| 45.0% | 38.4 | 59.5% | 13.7% |
| 21 |
Sacramento Kings
I wondered last week if we had our eight in the West and nobody had a real chance of cracking that final group over the next couple of months. The Kings are the biggest challenge to this because they're close and they're so hard to predict. They eventually have to start beating some teams above .500 (8-15 right now) if they want to get serious about the postseason.
| 44.2% | 35.1 | 46.0% | 13.4% |
| 22 |
Portland Trail Blazers
SportsLine has been pretty firm on the Blazers all season long, except for this week. Portland fell four spots and it would've been much worse had Damian Lillard not pulled out that incredible victory over the Thunder. Their playoff odds fell 30.5 percent this week and they're only 2.5 games out. SportsLine has very little faith in Portland right now.
| 43.8% | 34.9 | 50.0% | 13.8% |
| 23 |
New York Knicks
Does SportsLine finally believe in the Knicks? They improved three spots this week and it feels like the Power Ratings are finally coming around on the Kristaps Porzingis experience. Over his last 10 games, Porzingis is putting up 15.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, and shooting 41.9 percent from 3-point range. Is there anybody dumb enough to still doubt this kid?
| 43.5% | 38.6 | 61.5% | 15.2% |
| 24 |
Charlotte Hornets
Remember the new Kemba Walker who was actually a deadly shooter? Over his last 15 games, he's shooting 38.8 percent from the field and 29.5 percent from 3-point range. The Hornets went from being one of the more impressive teams on both ends of the floor to being a bit broken and sliding out of the East playoffs. Lot of time left, but where is the sting from them?
| 42.9% | 37.0 | 44.4% | 7.7% |
| 25 |
Milwaukee Bucks
I think you can let go of any hope that this Bucks team would eventually regain last year's form and find its way back to being a decent defensive team. After 39 games, the Bucks are 29th in defensive rating. This is what happens when you play a bad defensive center and a bad defensive point guard so many minutes. You can't play 3-on-5 defensively and survive; no matter how much we all love Giannis.
| 42.6% | 32.8 | 48.7% | 0.4% |
| 26 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Over the last 11 games, nobody in the NBA has a worse offense than the Timberwolves. It's also not a coincidence that they're 1-10 during those 11 games. Not only are the Wolves the worst offense during this time, but they're also tied with the Suns for the worst net rating (minus-12.1) over this stretch. This isn't the fun, up-and-coming team we were watching three weeks ago.
| 40.0% | 25.9 | 37.8% | 0.0% |
| 27 |
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have fired Lionel Hollins from coaching and have reassigned Billy King to a position in which he is supposed to find his own replacement. It's like Mikhail Prokhorov finally woke up and realized he was running a stale joke so he needed to freshen up the punch line. Can we go back to simpler times like when Prok was doing calisthenics?
| 37.5% | 25.5 | 54.1% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Denver Nuggets
Emmanuel Mudiay is back, which makes this team a lot more intriguing. Danilo Gallinari might finally be back, as well. Since returning from that ankle injury, Gallo is scoring 25.8 points per game while shooting 46.3/36/80. If Mudiay can provide a spark and Gallo can be Gallo again, can this team become dangerous?
| 36.2% | 29.6 | 47.2% | 0.4% |
| 29 |
Los Angeles Lakers
Over the last 10 games, the Lakers are a plus-11.6 with D'Angelo Russell on the court and a minus-15.6 with him on the bench. The Lakers also simply can't play Roy Hibbert right now, not even for defense. They're allowing almost 14 more points per 100 possessions with Hibbert on the floor during the last 10 games, which makes you wonder what he even does there.
| 23.0% | 15.8 | 43.6% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Philadelphia 76ers
The weird thing about the Ish Smith experience so far? His numbers look good individually and it looks like competent point guard play is fueling them a bit. They're actually bad offensively (96 offensive rating) with him on the floor and 100.6 with him off. It's the defense where the Sixers excel with Ish, giving up 5.1 per 100 possessions less with Smith on the floor.
| 17.7% | 11.0 | 41.0% | 0.0% |
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