Phillies vs. Braves NLDS Game 2 Monday probable pitchers, odds, trends: Bettors backing Atlanta to rebound behind Max Fried

It took the Atlanta Braves about 158 regular-season games to earn home-field advantage throughout the National League playoffs and just one game to lose it in the Divisional Series against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies look for a stunning 2-0 lead tonight in Atlanta with ace Zack Wheeler opposed by Max Fried, but the Braves are taking a sizable lean to tie the series. Click here for model picks. 

Priced -155 at BetMGM, 76% of the money and  50% of the bets are on the Braves. On the total of 8 runs, 61% of the money and 48% of the bets are on the Over. Phillies +1.5 ( -160) is taking just 19% of the bets and 25% of the money.

The Phillies clearly are not intimidated against the Braves after also beating them in four games in the 2022 NLDS when Atlanta had the home-field edge. The majors' No. 1 offense, which tied a record with 309 homers in the regular season, was blanked by Ranger Suarez and six relievers in the Game 1 loss. Road teams are 5-1 in all Division Series so far.

Philadelphia star Bryce Harper reached base all four times in Game 1 and finished 2-for-2 with a solo homer and two runs scored. He's now 10-for-18 with three homers and six RBI in his past five playoff games vs. Atlanta. Harper is +550 to go yard tonight and -115 for Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI.

The former NL Cy Young runner-up Wheeler opened the postseason by beating the Marlins last Wednesday, allowing one run with eight strikeouts and no walks over 6.2 innings. Wheeler is 4-1 with a  3.20 ERA in his last seven starts against Braves, including the postseason. The loss came in Game 2 of the 2022 NLDS in Atlanta (three earned runs allowed in six innings).

Wheeler went 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA in three starts against Atlanta this season and is 6-3 with a 2.46 ERA in 14 starts against the Braves since he joined the Phillies in 2020, including the postseason. Wheeler is set at over/under 2.5 earned runs, 5.5 strikeouts and 15.5 outs recorded and is +255 to record a win tonight. Wheeler Over 15.5 outs is one of the most-wagered props of the night at BetMGM. 

Atlanta's Game 1 loss was the first time the Braves had been shut out at home this season. They had scored in 187 straight home games, including playoff action. Philly has now won four of the past five playoff meetings by a combined score of 27-13.

The lefty Fried (8-1, 2.55 ERA) dealt with some blister problems down the stretch and hasn't pitched in a game since Sept. 21 for Atlanta. Fried held the Phillies to one run over five innings in his one start against them on Sept. 12 and is 4-3 with a 3.99 ERA in 13 career regular-season starts vs. the Phillies. Harper is 9-for-30 off him with two homers. 

Fried is 2-4 with a 4.12 ERA in 10 career postseason starts and is set at O/U 1.5 earned runs, 4.5 strikeouts and 14.5 outs recorded. He's +280 to tally a win.

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