Patriots 2022 NFL playoff odds: New England now postseason long shot, faces must-win situation vs. Bengals on Christmas Eve

The New England Patriots have never missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons under head coach Bill Belichick, but that streak may well come to an end this season with the Pats in an ugly spot after their shocking walk-off loss in Las Vegas this past Sunday. It's must-win time for New England on Saturday against red-hot Cincinnati, which is a 3-point road favorite at Caesars Sportsbook.

The SportsLine Projection Model gave New England a 49% chance of making the playoffs entering Week 15, but that likelihood is down to 27.2% (equates to a moneyline of about +270) after allowing two touchdowns to the Raiders in the final 32 second of Sunday's game. One of those two scores, of course, came on one of the most embarrassing plays in NFL history when receiver Jakobi Meyers attempted a lateral that was picked off and returned 48 yards for a TD with no time left on the clock by former Patriot Chandler Jones – who bulldozed QB Mac Jones on his way to the end zone.

There truly has never been an ending like that. Had Pats running back Rhamondre Stevenson simply fallen down after picking up 23 yards on a draw, the game would have gone to overtime. But Stevenson lateraled to Meyers, who then made a play that will live in infamy – and it's not as if Jones could have thrown the ball even if the lateral got to him. It wasn't close, and it was just the second go-ahead defensive touchdown on the final play of regulation in NFL history.

"Just trying to do too much, trying to be a hero, I guess," Meyers said. "I thought I saw Mac open. I didn't see Chandler Jones at the time. I thought [Mac] was open and tried to get it to him, and let him try to make a play with it. But the score was tied, so I should have went down."

Following the loss, Caesars downgraded the Patriots from +170 to +425 to make the playoffs and from -200 to -600 to miss out. Their odds to win Super Bowl 57 lengthened from +10000 to +15000.

New England finishes vs. Miami and at Buffalo (which may or may not have the AFC's top seed to play for). The Pats would not be officially eliminated with a loss Saturday vs. Cincinnati, but it would be all but impossible for them to squeak in. The AFC North-leading Bengals clinch a playoff spot with a win or tie, or with a Jets loss or tie on Thursday vs. Jacksonville.

Like in many American cities in the Midwest and Northeast, it's going to be cold in Foxborough on Saturday, but not nearly as bad as in other places. Here is the forecast from weather.com: "Mainly sunny. High 24F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph." 

The Patriots have won 13 straight home games in freezing temperatures, including the playoffs but were underdogs in just one of those games. Their last loss in such conditions came in the 2010 postseason vs. the Jets.

Cincinnati has won an AFC-best six straight games and is an amazing 19-3 against the spread in its past 22 overall, including the postseason. This will be Joe Burrow's first time going against a Bill Belichick defense. 

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