Patrick Mahomes Fantasy football ranking: 2020 outlook, projections, ADP, value, predictions, stats

After winning the MVP in his first year as a starter and following that up with a Super Bowl MVP in 2019, Patrick Mahomes' first two seasons are without question the best of any quarterback in the history of the NFL. Where should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings, and what Patrick Mahomes Fantasy football outlook can you expect?

Mahomes' Chiefs have gone full run-it-back mode this offseason, retaining as many pieces of last year's Super Bowl winning unit as possible. Receivers Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson were both expected to find new teams this offseason but will don a Chiefs uniform again in 2020. The Chiefs restructured Watkins' contract to keep Mahomes' WR2 from 2019 on board, and Robinson was brought back on a one-year deal to complement Watkins, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and 2019 second-round pick Mecole Hardman -- giving Mahomes the most deadly group of pass-catchers in the NFL. On top of that, Kansas City used its first-round selection on LSU pass-catching extraordinaire Clyde Edwards-Helaire -- making him the first running back drafted from 2020's loaded rookie class.

The 2020 Patrick Mahomes Fantasy football value remains strong, as he's set for another 4,500-yard campaign. He's an early-round candidate in most formats, but how high should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings? Here's what you need to know:

So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.

Patrick Mahomes Fantasy ADP & ranking (via SportsLine's projection model)

No. 13.7 ADP
No. 2 QB

Patrick Mahomes Fantasy projections (via SportsLine's projection model) 

4,541 passing yards, 32.9 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 347 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns
415.2 Fantasy points

Patrick Mahomes 2020 Fantasy outlook 

After throwing the second-most single-season touchdown passes (50) in NFL history in his first year as a starter, Mahomes' total fell to just 26 in 2019. With such a glaring discrepancy between his only two seasons as a starter, what should we expect from Mahomes in year three?

While the base statistics point towards a big drop-off from 2018 to 2019, The Athletic's Seth Keysor has charted every snap Mahomes has taken in his NFL career and believes that his 2019 was actually an improvement from his historic 2018 season. PFF graded Mahomes as slightly worse in 2019 than 2018, but the dip was not nearly as drastic as his 50-to-26 touchdown decline would suggest.

So, what should we expect from the reigning Super Bowl MVP in his age-25 season? Like Keysor, I believe the best is yet to come. I have watched every snap Mahomes has taken since his first preseason with Kansas City in 2017. I placed a large bet on Mahomes to win the MVP well before the 2018 season started, and I ranked him higher than any FantasyPros expert for Fantasy purposes that season. He's the most talented quarterback I've ever seen play and should be the odds-on favorite for MVP for as long as he is surrounded by a Kansas City offense overflowing with talent that is led by an offensive genius in Andy Reid. He has been nothing short of spectacular through his first two seasons, and he is a poorly-timed Dee Ford penalty away from potentially having two Super Bowl rings in his two seasons as a starter.

His 2019 statistical output was disappointing, but it's worth noting that Mahomes played a full game in just 12 of his 14 contests. He entered halftime of KC's Week 1 game with 313 yards and three touchdowns, but he suffered an ankle injury in the second-half. That ankle injury didn't cause him to miss time, but it clearly impacted Mahomes' ability to plant on his back foot and drive accurate throws down the field. As playing hobbled wasn't bad enough, Mahomes also was missing his top weapon in Tyreek Hill and two starting offensive lineman. The latter proved to be more impactful, as KC's line couldn't protect their already banged-up QB. Mahomes aggravated the ankle injury in both Week 5 and 6 before disclocating his right kneecap in Week 7. Somehow, Mahomes missed just two games with the dislocation, returning to play a mostly healthy final seven regular season games.

Mahomes had both Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins healthy simultaneously for just six of his 14 games last year. His offensive line was in shambles for most of the first half of the season. The team had a completely unreliable running game with Damien Williams missing seven games and LeSean McCoy simply having little left to offer. It was close to a worst-case scenario for Kansas City's offense last year, and Mahomes still finished fifth among Fantasy QBs in points per game. With presumed full health heading into 2020, Mahomes and Kansas City's offensive output should closer resemble 2018 than 2019. And if Clyde Edwards-Helaire adds an element that has been missing since Kareem Hunt's departure, this offense might truly be unstoppable. Mahomes' median projection isn't going to look as good as Lamar Jackson's because of the difference in their rushing contributions, but his ceiling as a passer is another 5,000-plus yards and 50 touchdowns. Jackson projects slightly better than Mahomes, but if drafting a QB early, I'd prefer to wait and select Mahomes at a discount if possible.