On MLB: Starting pitchers to ride and fade this week

Trying to get in sync with pitchers' ebbs and flows makes all the difference in betting baseball. Identifying pitchers poised to emerge from a mini-funk while steering clear of arms due for a cold spell separates profitable bettors from the rest.

We use the term "regression to the mean" all the time; it applies to baseball more than any other sport.

Here are six guys every baseball bettor should be keeping tabs on this week:

Three Up

David Price, Red Sox

Next start: Tuesday at Braves (Wisler)

Placing an arm of this caliber on the trending up list is rare. Price has put together two strong starts as a member of the Red Sox, tossing 13 innings in which he surrendered 11 hits and four runs while striking out 19.

Conversely there were two sub-standard performances where he allowed 13 runs over 8 2/3 innings, contributing to his eyesore of an ERA, 7.06. Thankfully for Price, neither the .396 BABIP average opposing hitters are producing against him, nor his below average 55.6 percent strand rate, will haunt him all year. The talented lefty’s FIP ERA of 3.16 and xFIP of 2.83 indicate better times are right around the corner.

Value might not be reflected in the market as it pertains to Price's starts, but backing him in the next handful of outings may give you a pitcher producing results consistent with his price.

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals

Next start: Monday at Diamondbacks (Greinke)

All the talk coming into the year was about Carlos Martinez morphing into the Cardinals' ace, giving the proud franchise a dynamic 1-2 punch with a healthy Adam Wainwright. Well, Wainwright hasn't looked like his former self yet and Martinez has been good, just not great.

Thankfully, Garcia has a dazzling stat line that's flown under the radar: 20 IP, 10 hits, 6 earned runs, and 26 strikeouts. Garcia's health is always a concern; not his stuff. This season, advanced metrics suggest his 2.70 ERA is actually high for the way he's pitched. Right now Garcia is the best bet on this staff, especially when finding himself listed as an underdog against opposing aces.

Andrew Cashner, Padres

Next start: Wednesday at Giants (Samardzija)

You don't have a successful season betting baseball if you're only after star appeal. Andrew Cashner won't win you a Fantasy championship or make you tune into Padres games every fifth day, but the onetime flame thrower is quietly putting together a respectable season.

San Diego is 3-1 in games Cashner has started and his back-to-back quality starts have me taking notice. Advanced metrics suggest his numbers will improve a bit, yet they don't have to be great given how undervalued he is in the betting market. Just avoid betting on him against the Dodgers and look to back him at PetCo, where his career ERA is nearly 1.5 runs better than when he hits the highway.

Three Down

Kenta Maeda, Dodgers

Next start: Thursday vs. Marlins (Fernandez)

The whole world knows about the incredible start to Maeda's big-league career -- and I mean the whole world. When everyone knows about a guy's incredible start, oddsmakers are forced to inflate his price tag.

With more and more film available on the Japanese import, opposing hitters can start to prepare accordingly. I don't expect the wheels to entirely fall off here but a bad start or two is brewing and backing Maeda at the peak of the market is a bad idea.

Doug Fister, Astros

Next start: Monday at Mariners (Walker)

There are good pitchers on good teams and there are good pitchers on bad teams. Fister is neither of those at this point in his career. His strikeout-to-walk ratio won't evoke ace status any time soon.

However it's not so much his stuff that has him listed here. He happens to pitch for MLB's most overvalued team. While the Astros continue to struggle offensively, fading guys like Fister and Scott Feldman as favorites will return profits.

Edinson Volquez, Royals

Next start: Tuesday at Angels (Weaver)

Volquez hasn't been called an ace in years. I'm not about to start doing that either. In 24-plus innings this season, he's compiled a 1.46 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, so why does he find himself on this list?

Volquez has an unsustainable 90 percent strand rate, which won't hold over 30 starts. I do mark him with an asterisk; he's always worth a look as an underdog given the outstanding defense and elite pen behind him.

However, it's dangerous to back Volquez as a substantial favorite until he proves his new-look pitching arsenal is here to stay.