Nuggets vs. Suns Friday NBA playoffs Game 3 odds, trends: Denver taking massive road lean with Chris Paul out injured

The Suns' Chris Paul is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and arguably one of the 10 best point guards in league history, but there is one glaring omission on his resume -- a ring. Phoenix's chances of winning it all this year took a huge hit in Game 2 of their Western Conference playoff series against Denver when Paul left with a groin injury. He will not play in Game 3 on Friday as the series shifts to the desert, and could be out until Game 5 at the earliest. While the Suns are -4.5 for Friday at BetMGM, their title odds got longer at the book and in the SportsLine Projection Model. Click here for model picks.

Paul was hurt trying to box out Nuggets guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope late in the third quarter in Game 2 on Monday. He checked out of the game with 4:32 remaining in the quarter, immediately went to the locker room, and did not return. That Paul can't play four days later is obviously a red flag.  

The soon-to-be 39-year-old (on Saturday) is averaging 12.4 points and 7.4 assists per game this postseason. Phoenix has outscored its opponents by 39 points over seven games with Paul on the floor. Cam Payne should start in his spot. He's averaging 3.5 points, 2.0 rebounds and 1.0 assists in 11 minutes per game in this series and played just three total minutes in Round 1 vs. the Clippers. Payne has been a popular player prop wager in Game 3 but so far the three most wagered are at BetMGM: Kevin Durant Over 28.5 points (-120), Durant Over 2.5 three-pointers (+130), and Jamal Murray Over 22.5 points (-115). 

Meanwhile, just 31% of the bets and 28% of the money are on the Suns against the spread. On the total of 225.5, 53% of the bets and 59% of the money are on the Over. At +155 on the moneyline, Denver is getting 76% of the bets and 68% of the money.

Friday will be Paul's ninth career playoff game missed due to injury, with his most notable previous injury coming in the 2018 Western Conference Finals while with Houston. The Rockets led the Golden State Warriors 3-2 in the series and looked like the better team with Paul in the lineup, but he missed the final two games with a hamstring strain, and the Warriors rallied to win in seven and then repeat as NBA champions – the only repeat title (so far) of that dynasty.

The SportsLine Projection Model's simulated line dropped the Suns from -6 to -4.5 with the Paul injury, which is pretty much in line with the book -- although the Suns were as low as -3.5 at one point. On the series line, the model dropped Phoenix from a 24% chance to win it all to 14%, which equates to about +615. At Caesars Sportsbook, the Suns went from +270 to +340 on the series line.

Denver's chances to win its first NBA title improved from 21% via the model to 22.4% (about +350), with the obvious expectation that it's much more likely the Nuggets advance now. They would be favored in the Western Conference Finals against either the Warriors or Lakers. 

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