North Carolina vs. Notre Dame ACC basketball odds: Upset loss would be catastrophic for Tar Heels' at-large NCAA Tournament hopes

Every preseason No. 1 in the Associated Press Top 25 has made the NCAA Tournament since the field expanded to 64 in 1985, but that streak could end this season with North Carolina. The Tar Heels are generally considered to be on the wrong side of the Big Dance bubble as they visit a bad Notre Dame team on Wednesday. Should UNC, 6.5-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook, lose to the Fighting Irish, an at-large bid to the tournament might be too big an ask. The SportsLine Projection Model has Notre Dame winning.

Not only has every preseason No. 1 since 1985 made the NCAA Tournament, but all but three earned No. 3 seeds or better. Only 2013-14 Kentucky failed to secure at least a No. 5 seed, with the Wildcats seeded No. 8 and making a run to the national title game. 

North Carolina (16-11, 8-8 ACC) is an impossibly bad 0-9 in Quad 1 games following a 77-69 loss at No. 23 NC State on Sunday, the Tar Heels' fifth defeat in six games. After a Caleb Love free throw tied the score at 60 with 6:02 remaining, the Wolfpack went on a 9-0 run to take control and didn't look back.

Love finished with 23 points and has scored 20 or more in four consecutive games for the first time in his career. Armando Bacot had 16 points and 14 rebounds for his UNC-record 66th career double-double and 17th this season. 

Long-range shooting has been a major problem all season -- UNC is among the nation's worst from downtown at 30.7%. North Carolina shot 31.8% from behind the arc against the Wolfpack. North Carolina is shooting 37.9% from the floor, including 22.4% from 3, and 70.0% from the free throw line in its five losses this month. The only sure-fire NCAA Tournament team the Heels have defeated all season is NC State (in Chapel Hill last month).

CBS Sports' Jerry Palm has coach Hubert Davis' among the First Four Out with a NCAA NET ranking of 48. A loss tonight at NCAA NET No. 194 Notre Dame, and the Tar Heels likely would have to win the ACC Tournament to return to the Big Dance.

The Fighting Irish (10-17, 2-14 ACC) are playing out the string under lame-duck coach Mike Brey, who said he will step down after the season but wants to keep coaching. Their lone ACC wins are by 14 at home against Louisville and by 1 in overtime at home against Georgia Tech. The Cardinals and Yellow Jackets are at the bottom of the league standings with Notre Dame. The Irish have been competitive of late, losing their past four by a total of 14 points. They rank third in the ACC in made 3-pointers per game and 35th in the country, converting 9.0 per game. They also rank fourth in three-point shooting percentage (.363).

The Tar Heels, who are 2-7 in true road games, did beat visiting Notre Dame 81-64 on Jan. 7. Bacot scored 21 points and grabbed 13 rebounds, and Love added 18 points. The game was never much in doubt. UNC is 28-9 all-time against the Irish, including a 12-4 record since Notre Dame began play in the ACC. The Irish have a two-game win streak against the Tar Heels at Purcell Pavilion.

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