Last week our best bets were beset by key in-game injuries and big swings on low-percentage plays like long punt-return touchdowns, fumbles through the end zone and so on. The Patriots-Jaguars game in particular was frustrating as without that special teams touchdown, we're looking at a one-score game late and the Patriots punting the ball rather than going for it on fourth-and-a-mile deep in their own territory, which led to a tacked-on touchdown that inflated the final score. The Patriots' spread again seems inflated this week, but I've had trouble locking in a pick on that side, much less making it a best bet for Week 8.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing the return of an injured QB and taking the Miami Dolphins -3.5 against the Arizona Cardinals.

Tua Tagovailoa's return is obviously huge, but it also means that the Dolphins are able to start throwing to their receivers again. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each had about the same production in a month with backup QBs as they did in Week 1 with Tagovailoa. Now, complicating things is the fact that Hill popped up as questionable on the injury report Friday, and if he can't play then a line of Dolphins -3.5 would make more sense. But if he's in, I see no reason this line shouldn't be at the preseason number of Dolphins -6.

On the Cardinals' side, they were able to win an ugly game against a beat-up Chargers team last week thanks to the fumble through the end zone referenced above as well as a fumble on an early interception return that gave them the ball back. Without those key plays, it's possible the Chargers roll in the first half and we're looking at the Cardinals as a 2-5 team with a defense that is having trouble stopping any competent offense. Justin Herbert did finish with a big stat line against Arizona that was just missing the TDs needed for the win, and he did it with Will Dissly as his top receiver. This is a much tougher matchup for that Cardinals defense on a short week now that Tagovailoa is back in, and with Arizona scoring more than 17 points just once in the last five weeks, it's going to be difficult to keep up with Miami unless the Cardinals offense starts playing much better.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last seven years, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last nine seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 8 below.

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