The public had a field day in Week 6, especially with the 1 p.m. ET slate as all seven favorites won and covered. The ugly 'dogs weren't hitting, which is always going to be a bad day for me, and it was compounded when the favorites did lose in primetime after I backed the Steelers and Bills early in the week before the line inflated to its closing price. So after being well-positioned in both contests through four weeks, I enter Week 7 licking my wounds and looking for a rally to get back in the thick of the race.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert over the last four years, going 354-292-22 against the spread in particular during that stretch. I've also delivered a 57.1 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last six seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number in the double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm taking a favorite to cover a line I just don't get: the New England Patriots -7 vs. the New York Jets.

Back in Week 2, the Patriots went to MetLife Stadium as 6.5-point favorites and easily took care of business, beating the Jets 25-6 as the New York offense turned the ball over four times. What's changed since? The Jets are healthier at receiver, sure, but any hope we had of Zach Wilson taking a step forward during his team's win over Tennessee was dashed when he looked terrible against a bad Falcons defense in London. Even if he can avoid turning the ball over in bunches, I can't see him figuring out how to move the ball consistently against Bill Belichick's defense.

So are the Patriots worse? Yes, they're dealing with a bunch of injuries, but they've managed to play great teams like the Buccaneers and Cowboys close in recent weeks while figuring out how to rally to beat the Texans on the road after a brutal first half. Mac Jones appears to be getting more comfortable in the offense, and to me it looks like he's further along in his development from Week 2 than the opposing quarterback.

So unless you believe home-field advantage doesn't matter, or the Jets are markedly better now than they were five weeks ago, or the Patriots have gotten much worse, this line doesn't make a whole lot of sense. 

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below, including a struggling underdog I think can win outright.

So which teams should you back in Week 7? And which big underdog keeps it close?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 7, all from the expert who keeps crushing the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!