We're coming off a winning week in this column that would've been better had I had more confidence in the Broncos laying a full field goal, which is tough when you only get a half-point for a push in a competition where you have to be above 60% to finish in the money (in other words, 0.6 points per pick should be your baseline for success). With four of the 14 spreads lined at 3 this week (and a few others on the lesser key numbers of 6, 7 and 10), avoiding the field-goal push entirely may not be a realistic option.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm sticking with the team we featured in this space last week and taking the Green Bay Packers -4.5 against the Arizona Cardinals.

The Packers took care of business last week against the Rams with a score that was closer than it should've been due to Jordan Love's ugly pick-six late in the first half and the offense's struggles on third down despite facing a lower-tier defense. They get another this week in the Cardinals, who are even worse on third downs (30th in NFL). Green Bay should also have the reliable Romeo Doubs back in the lineup so that Love doesn't have to lean as much on Dontayvion Wicks, who has made a handful of great plays this year but has caught just 10 of his 29 targets on the season.

The Packers also may get Jaire Alexander back on the defensive side after the No. 1 corner was able to take the practice field in a limited fashion on Wednesday, which would help limit the upside of Marvin Harrison Jr. in this matchup. Even if Alexander remains out, I'm not confident in Arizona going into Green Bay and having success offensively against a defense that has been great at generating turnovers and solid against the run. This feels like a game the Packers should win 31-20 as long as Love can limit mistakes on the offensive side of the ball.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last seven years, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last nine seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 6 below.

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