Week 3 went better for me overall but not that much better with my contest picks, as I avoided playing two field-goal spreads that were my top picks (Eagles, Lions) just in case they ended up being pushes, which act like a loss when you need to go better than 60% to cash. I also pulled out backing the Steelers when it looked like Justin Herbert would play, which I thought was a terrible idea, and the Steelers lost Troy Fautanu in the last practice of the week.

Moving forward, I'm not going to worry about avoiding field-goal lines as I try to get back in this thing with my best picks. Week 4 is going to be a pretty big test, as I find myself on the opposite of what seems to be the consensus sharp side on a lot of the board, which makes it even more difficult to know how to rank my picks by confidence and settle on the five I want in play.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm banking that this is the week where a big favorite not only wins outright but covers by taking the New York Jets (-7.5) against the Denver Broncos.

I loved this early in the week when it was Jets -7, and I'm hoping the added hook will scare some people away in the contest. That won't be me, as Aaron Rodgers has moved around well coming back from his Achilles injury, and the Jets' offensive numbers aren't bad considering the defenses they've had to face. They'll also continue to get Mike Williams more integrated into the passing attack, and the injury to Morgan Moses just might cause an upgrade at right tackle with rookie Olu Fashanu sliding in. On defense, C.J. Mosley looks unlikely to return but Jamien Sherwood did a great job filling in last week.

On the other side, I don't know how Bo Nix scores against this defense, which has allowed just four TDs in three weeks even with the 49ers matchup in Week 1. Denver's offense looked better last week, but it was against a severely injured Buccaneers defense, and one of Nix's two TD drives was only nine yards long. Defensively, the loss of Alex Singleton in the middle of the Denver defense is brutal, and I don't think the unit is as good as their stats suggest anyway. With Nix on the road for a second straight game against this tough defense coming off extra rest, I could see a final score similar to the Jets' Thursday night win over the Patriots here.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last seven years, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last nine seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 4 below.

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