NFL Week 4 betting recap: Inside the week's biggest upsets, best bets and how it all affected the Week 5 lines

Welcome to our Monday review of the NFL weekend from a betting standpoint and a glance at line movements for the upcoming set of games.

Each Monday in this space, we will recognize the most significant outright wins by underdogs, review the baddest of bad beats, glimpse at the games that most impacted how the sportsbooks fared financially and list the matchups whose lookahead spreads were majorly affected by outcomes and injuries. 

Label it the Incredibly Shrinking Spread Season. It was another week, another set of tiny lines. All but three of the 16 matchups in Week 4 wound up with spreads of four or fewer points. Just one — Green Bay at -9.5 versus New England — carried a spot above a touchdown.

The games partly fulfilled expectations of tense finishes. The margin of victory in five was a skinny field goal, while three others ended with a one-score difference.

Top 'Dogs

None of the three relatively heavy favorites fell, though the Packers tried their darnedest by requiring an entire overtime period to avoid getting Zappe'd by the Patriots and third-string QB Bailey Zappe. 

If teams receiving 3.5 points can be considered top 'dogs, then step right up, Jets and Seahawks. New York beat the buzzer as well as Pittsburgh on a touchdown with 16 seconds left for a 24-20 win.

And if the Seattle-Detroit score of 48-45 looks unusual, well, it's more than that. Never before has an NFL game closed out with those numbers. Underdog Seattle came out on top — with Geno Smith under center! 

Bad Beats

There was no shortage of candidates for this category.

Sunday began overseas, with Minnesota floating up to a four-point favorite in London against the Saints. The Vikings went ahead by three with 4:15 left on a touchdown, only to miss the PAT. The shank allowed New Orleans, with backups on offense replacing injured cornerstone players, to attempt field goals down the stretch of a game that ended 28-25.

Buffalo, -3.5 against Baltimore, was tied 20-20 at the one-minute mark, just inches from the goal line with four downs to advance. A touchdown would have delivered a cover to Bills backers. Instead, the Bills (wisely) took two kneel-downs and hit a tap-in field goal with time expiring for a 23-20 win.

Three other games proved torturous to those who played totals.

The Jets' 11th-hour-plus TD took their game to an Over — barely. The total, 41.5, was exceeded by 2.5 points.

The Colts, though down seven with two minutes left, opted for a field goal try of 51 yards on fourth-and-long that would have tipped the score to an Over. It went wide left, preserving an Under with a 24-17 finale — two points south of the 43.

Arizona's 26-16 victory over Carolina rewarded Under players, who lucked out on the total of 43.5. Both sides attempted two-point conversions after their last TDs — the Cardinals inexplicably so, given that their lead was 16 at the time. Both failed. Had either converted, the outcome would have flipped it to an Over. 

How The Books Fared

The sportsbooks are toweling off after taking a bath for the first time all season, according to ESPN. Its report indicated that the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, Wynnbet and Caesars were among the bet-takers that came out in the red.

Caesars did not get burned on its biggest plays. Cleveland, a mini-favorite over Atlanta, was beaten outright. The Minnesota line against New Orleans was all over the map. It settled at four points, the highest spread amid the movement, and the Vikings won by three.

Caesars was on the wrong side of the Bays, with Green unable to cover against the Patriots and Tampa bowing outright to Kansas City.

Week 5 Line Moves

Massive. That's the only way to describe some of the line movements from the lookahead odds.

Philadelphia, the last outright unbeaten team standing, originally was getting a pair of points at Arizona. Now the Eagles are yielding 5.5, even though the Cardinals' road win Sunday by 10 points came more easily than Philly's by eight at home.

The Buffalo line against Pittsburgh bounced from eight to 14 following its comeback at Baltimore and the Steelers' QB shift from Mitch Trubisky to Kenny Pickett. Coach Mike Tomlin has yet to commit on a starter after Pickett generated a couple of TDs but had three interceptions in their setback.

The linesmakers appeared more persuaded by the fact that Jacksonville led 14-0 at Philadelphia than by its eventual 29-21 defeat. They pushed the Jaguars from -3 to -7 against the Texans, who bowed by 10 to the Chargers.

Four other games underwent smaller but significant shifts: Tampa Bay from -10.5 to -7.5 against Atlanta, Minnesota from -4.5 to -7 opposite Chicago, Baltimore -1 to -3.5 as host of Cincinnati and Kansas City from -4.5 to -7 versus Las Vegas.

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