Week 2 was one of the worst I've had picking games in years, a combination of bad luck and completely whiffing on some evaluations. On the luck side, the Ravens and Texans finished with major statistical edges in their games and didn't cover, with Baltimore unable to maintain a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. Then you get to the Titans not covering, the Seahawks going over their team total in overtime, the Giants-Commanders game not getting Over despite all the scoring ... basically, everything that could've went wrong, went wrong.

Then you get to the bad calls, like fading the Chargers on an inflated line on a cross-country trip, which didn't take into account they weren't facing an NFL-caliber team; expecting the Cowboys pass rush to upend the Saints and not realizing Derek Carr is going full Matt Ryan 2016 Super Saiyan version on the NFL; and taking the Chiefs on an inflated line against a team that has given them plenty of trouble in the past.

Hopefully your Week 2 was much better; I expect to be trending upward in this column starting this week, even if the big hole I've dug will likely prevent me from finishing in the money in the long run.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm fading one of the key overperformers of expectations this season and taking the Houston Texans -2 at the Minnesota Vikings.

The crowd in Minnesota is sure to be electric, and that could cause issues for the Houston offensive line in a game where C.J. Stroud may have to pass more due to injuries at running back. But he's proven to be excellent against the blitz, which Brian Flores is certain to turn to early and often, and Houston has arguably the best group of receiving-game weapons in the league. The Texans should also end up being a tougher defensive matchup than the 49ers; they limited the downfield shots against Chicago after that proved a problem in Week 1, and Justin Jefferson may not be playing this game at 100%. The excitement around Minnesota's win over San Francisco, which featured success running and throwing the ball for the 49ers despite only scoring 17 points, has pushed this game from a lookahead of Texans -4 down through the key number, and to me it doesn't make sense to go any further than Texans -3 even if you are excited about the Vikings this season as I am.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last seven years, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last nine seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 3 below.

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