NFL Week 18 power rankings: Packers top NFC but third overall, plus futures odds, sim projections for all 32 teams
The Green Bay Packers entered the 2021 season with seven division titles in the previous 10 years, a remarkable run of success for Aaron Rodgers and Co. That included NFC North titles in both of coach Matt LaFleur's first two seasons. But when Green Bay fell to the Saints 38-3 in the season opener, we were all forced to question whether this would be a rare down year for the storied franchise.
Yeah, not so much. The Packers steamrolled the NFL en route to winning 13 of their next 15 games to lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC heading into the season's final week. Their two losses during that stretch featured Jordan Love at quarterback against the Kansas City Chiefs and a last-second field goal by the Minnesota Vikings to avoid overtime. All three of their losses, including the Saints game, came on the road, meaning the Packers are 8-0 in Lambeau Field with an average score of 30.6-16.8. Good luck to whichever teams are forced to walk into that environment in January.
The Packers' blowout win over the Kirk Cousins-less Vikings not only increased their chances of winning the Super Bowl to over 20% per the SportsLine Projection Model, but it also lifted them to No. 3 in this week's power rankings. Which two AFC teams are projected to be better on a neutral field? You can find that out below.
Updated NFL futures odds from Caesars Sportsbook make the Packers the sole favorites to win the Super Bowl at +400, with the Chiefs next up at +475. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come next at +700, with the Buffalo Bills in fourth at +800. The Los Angeles Rams sit at +900, while the Dallas Cowboys check in at +1200. The Tennessee Titans, who moved into position for the No. 1 seed on Sunday, are next at +1300. The Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots are +1800, while the Cincinnati Bengals are +2000 and the Indianapolis Colts are +2200. The only other teams under 100-to-1 are the San Francisco 49ers at +3500, Los Angeles Chargers at +4000 and Philadelphia Eagles at +6000. The final longest of longshots include the Las Vegas Raiders at +10000, the Saints at +12500, the Baltimore Ravens at +20000 and the Pittsburgh Steelers at +25000.
Before you place any futures bets on who wins the Super Bowl and each conference or division, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,200 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 18 of the 2021 season on an incredible 135-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP!
Below, you can find the power ranking for all 32 teams based on the model's "neutral sim%," which is calculated based on the number of simulations they win playing healthy (in February) vs. every other team on a neutral field. You'll also find the simulation's projection for how often each team wins their division, conference and the Super Bowl, compared to the current available odds, along with notes from the model's creator, Stephen Oh.
How far did the Cowboys and Colts fall after their Week 17 losses? And which team is the best value to win the Super Bowl? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 18 power rankings from the proven NFL model which has delivered consistent positive value on its picks!
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