Another mediocre week leaves me playing for nothing but pride in the Circa Million, where I'm currently tied for 456th out of more than 5,200 participants. I believe I've done well in the final week of the regular season the last few years, so hopefully we can finish strong, and a 5-0 week would put us over 60% for the season. Just to give more context on what it takes to actually win the $1 million, the person in front has hit on just over 70% of their picks all season, which is an absurdly great run. 

Week 18 is always tricky to navigate, as the typical process for handicapping games and projecting where spreads should be breaks down when key players are resting or some teams with nothing to play for aren't as focused as others. Is the market moving the line too far in Steelers-Ravens or Chiefs-Chargers? Will one side of Broncos-Raiders be more motivated to win than the other?

Last year, the Texans had no reason to come out motivated to win but went out and did just that in Indianapolis, costing them the No. 1 overall pick (though it worked out in the end). The Giants rested starters against the Eagles and covered as massive underdogs anyway. Those are just a few examples as to why some games in Week 18 that may look more predictable than usual because of what's at stake are anything but.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.5% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing one of the teams that is resting starters this week: the Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 at the Los Angeles Chargers.

We won't see Patrick Mahomes out there for the Chiefs and plenty of other starters will likely sit as well. But the players out on the field are going to compete to win, and Andy Reid and his staff aren't taking the week off preparation for this game.

Blaine Gabbert gets the start at QB, and his resume includes being a former first-round pick (selected in the same slot as Mahomes, interestingly enough) with 48 career starts to his credit, though none have come since 2018. I don't expect him to light up the scoreboard by any means, but the Chiefs have scored at least 20 points in all three games backup quarterbacks have started during the Mahomes era. Gabbert won't have that tough of a test either, facing a Chargers defense that gave up 63 points to the Raiders a few weeks back, though they have fared better since firing Brandon Staley.

The main reason I'm trusting the Chiefs backups is that I've seen who's playing on the other side of the ball. The Chargers have scored one offensive TD outside of garbage time in Easton Stick's three starts, and that came after they were set up inside their opponent's 30-yard line following an interception. Even if he has Joshua Palmer back for this game, I can't see the Chargers putting up a bunch of points, and the Chiefs may only need 14-17 points to cover the number. That certainly seems doable, even for their backups.

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 18 below.

So which teams should you back in Week 18? Which NFL survivor pool pick should you make? And which underdogs could win outright?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 18, all from the expert who has crushed the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!