NFL Week 18 betting recap: Inside the week's biggest upsets and best bets

The last is the hardest. Meaning, the farewell NFL weekend for bettors is the most challenging of all. Who knows if teams with no hope of reaching the postseason will be fully motivated? Worse, who knows how much qualified teams locked into their seed or unlikely to move up or down will dirty the uniforms of many of their starters, if at all? 

Two games Sunday illustrated the plight. The Bengals began the week at -7 against Baltimore, which retained a chance to secure home-field advantage in its first-round game. (By a coin flip, which is another story.) By kickoff, it had leaked out that the Ravens were going with third-string quarterback Anthony Brown and four starters would be held out, perhaps with a playoff rematch between the teams this week in mind. The spread shot up to 11.5.

The result — Cincinnati 27-16 — generated all sorts of feelings among bettors, from relief to frustration.

The week's massive line move was on Chargers-Broncos. Los Angeles opened at -3 while in the AFC's No. 5 slot, with incentive to stay to secure a matchup with a softer first-round foe. L.A. could slide to No. 6 with a loss combined with a Baltimore win. 

But with the Ravens' game in the early time slot Sunday and their setback keeping the Chargers at No. 5, the spread swung to Denver -6 by kickoff. To much criticism, coach Brandon Staley did his darnedest to reward Chargers backers by leaving starters on the field way beyond a reasonable time frame. The Broncos prevailed 31-28, leaving bettors on the game sorting through all sorts of emotions. 

Top 'Dogs

There's two biggies.

Dallas spotted the Commanders 7.5 points for good reason. Two, actually. The Cowboys entered with an outside shot at the NFC East title with the intention of deploying starters. Washington began on the outside, looking in at the playoff field and were sitting some regulars.

The Commanders not only won outright, but their 26-6 trouncing provided the weekend's second largest margin. Dallas seemed disinterested after NFC East leader Philadelphia put away the Giants early to nail down the division.

The Lions (+4.5) had an excuse to mail it in after learning prior to kickoff that Seattle had eliminated them from postseason contention with a win. They found inspiration in the opportunity to drag opponent Green Bay with them into the group of non-qualifiers. The celebration by Detroit after its 20-16 win was not only one of a playoff-bound team, but one that ruined the night for a heated rival.

Let's recognize a pair of runners-up as we salute the top underdogs.

Carolina (+3.5) tapped through a late field goal to down New Orleans 10-7. Then there was Houston (+3) over Indianapolis 32-31. Read on for more on the latter surprise. 

Bad Beats

The closing week might have delivered the season's baddest of bad beats.

On the game's final snap, backers of the Jets (+3.5), who trailed 9-6, were making plans to spend their spoils. The only legitimate concern was a pick-six or a scoop-and-six during a botched series of laterals. Yet a safety? On a play that began at the 25-yard line?

New York called the standard desperate lateral play — and kept going backwards with each exchange. Ultimately, the ball came loose and bounced over the sideline in the end zone. An official on the scene hesitatingly signaled a safety.

But wait. The Fox telecast signed off with the screen showing a score of 9-6. Not until the network's studio show commenced did viewers learn the actual score: 11-6. An awful beat for the Jets camp, worsened by the fact that Miami never managed a touchdown.

A lesser bad beat unfolded in Indianapolis. The Colts (-3) yielded a touchdown on a fourth-and-20 pass of 28 yards to Houston with 50 seconds left that shaved their lead to one point. Not great for the Colts camp, but a tying PAT would give Indy supporters a reprieve, setting up a chance for a push or a cover. 

Instead, the Texans went for two and converted with the same combo — quarterback Davis Mills throwing to tight end Jordan Akins — for a 32-21 win. Here's a coda to the tough beat: The outcome cost Houston the No. 1 draft pick.

And another P.S. from a few hours later: The Texans canned coach Lovie Smith. 

How the Books Fared

At Caesars, it was an even split among the sets of four games most heavily bet on one side.

The public took a punch from Houston's win, as more than 90% were on Indy with the points. It also misfired on the Saints. Bettors made up with those losses by hitting on San Francisco (-14.5), a blowout winner over Arizona, and the Rams (+6), who pulled Seattle into overtime before falling by a field goal.

For totals wagering, big winners for bettors collectively were Minnesota-Chicago Under 42.5, which came through by a half-point, and Jets-Dolphins Under 37, which carried by, well, lots of points.

Those successes were countered by resounding defeats on two more Unders: Texans-Colts (37.5) and 49ers-Cardinals (40).

At MGM, per ESPN, the public cleaned up, winning the top three most popular plays: Buffalo (-7.5) over New England, Cincinnati (-9) over Baltimore, Pittsburgh (-2.5) over Cleveland.

There is a caveat on Bengals-Ravens. As previously noted, the line shot up to 11.5, so customers who jumped in late missed out on a cover. 

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