It's hard to complain about a pair of 4-1 weeks in the Westgate SuperContest and Circa Sports Million, but if Jonathan Taylor goes down to run out the clock instead of scores at the end of Patriots-Colts, that's a perfect week in both contests. Hard to complain too much with a Taylor rushing title ticket in my pocket, but as I try to climb back to my long term hit rate on these picks, it's tough losing anything that looks like it's about to cash late in the game in this part of the season.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert over the last four years, going 354-292-22 against the spread in particular during that stretch. I've also delivered a 57.1 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last six seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number in the double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing a team forced to start a backup quarterback, but not because of a COVID outbreak: the Denver Broncos PK vs. the Las Vegas Raiders.

Look, I certainly believe Teddy Bridgewater is a better quarterback than Drew Lock, but it's not like the passing game has been lighting up the scoreboard over the last two months. The Broncos' high-water mark for net passing yards since Week 6 is just 250 yards, and that came in the 22-9 loss to the Chiefs in a game more competitive than the final score indicates. But the Broncos have played mostly quality football by excelling at running the ball and playing defense, and that's a formula I expect works in this matchup.

The Raiders are coming off just their second win since their Week 7 bye, though they earned it on last-second field goal against a COVID-ravaged Browns team starting practice squad QB Nick Mullens. Color me unimpressed. Aside from the massive upset of the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, this team has looked cooked following the drama of October, and it's tough for me to see them being competitive these last few weeks against quality teams.

The Raiders won the last meeting between these teams, but they benefited from a plus-4 turnover margin that included three Teddy Bridgewater interceptions. Even if you think Drew Lock is just as inclined to put the ball at risk, the Raiders only have two interceptions in their other 13 games this year, so I don't think we can just pencil their defense in for a couple turnovers in this one. I think the Broncos are the much better team everywhere but quarterback, and I'll trust Vic Fangio to get the win in this spot.

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.

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