NFL Week 16 odds, trends: Bomb cyclone wintry weather leading to near-historic low betting totals around league

The Minnesota Vikings were mocked when they built US Bank Stadium because NFC North teams are "supposed" to be rugged and play outdoors like the Bears and Packers do (but not Lions). Well, the Vikings will have the last laugh this weekend as a bomb cyclone is wreaking wintry weather havoc across the Midwest and Northeast, and it's having a massive effect on Caesars Sportsbook NFL Week 16 totals.

There are seven games scheduled on Saturday/Christmas Eve that forecast freezing temperatures, which would tie the most in a single day since at least 2000. All seven games with freezing temperatures also have at least 10 mph winds in the forecast, which would be three more than any single day since at least 2000.

Including Thursday night's Jaguars at Jets matchup won 19-3 by Jacksonville, there are seven Week 16 games with a total listed under 40 at Caesars Sportsbook. In the first 15 weeks of the season, there were only 26 games that closed under 40, and 13 landed over and 13 under. The lowest overall closing total had been 36.5 in three games with two going under.

With bitterly cold temperatures, snow showers and winds from 25-35 mph and some gusts near 40 mph in Cleveland on Saturday afternoon, the Saints-Browns total dropped as low as 31.5 but is now 32. The last time an NFL total closed at 32 or lower was Week 16 of the 2008 season when Bengals at Browns was set at 31.5. Cincinnati won 14-0.

"Everyone knows what's going on with the weather, with the arctic blasts coming through," said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. "But the totals tell the whole story anyway, just take a look at the Saints-Browns game. The wind is the big factor—if there's a lot of wind, it disrupts the passing game and kicking game. When you see the live look-ins with the snow and the fields covered, the recreational bettors start coming in with under bets because they see those pictures. Even with some of these totals as low as they are, I think the public is more apt to bet those unders especially if they know the weather conditions."

When the Saints-Browns total was 33 or higher, the under drew 68.2% of the tickets and 99.4% of the handle. Since it has been at 32.5 or lower, the under has taken 55.3% of the tickets, but the over has gotten 90.3% of the handle.

"It's a low number to get no matter what the weather is," Pullen said. "We've seen 35s and 36s, but a 32 can spark the thought that it's just too low even with the conditions. You don't see totals this low that often, and it's tough to book because it's like you're a part-time weatherman. The big thing is how it affects all the player props, like what do we do with the quarterbacks? That part throws a bigger wrench into things more than just the total of the game."

The most lopsided action on a total in Week 16, though, is Texans at Titans, which might be the coldest game Tennessee has played in Nashville, but at least it will be sunny. A whopping 97.7% of the handle is on the under and 76.9% of the tickets. Bettors also are well aware that Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is out and that rookie third-round pick Malik Willis will make his third start.

"From what I saw, weather shouldn't be a factor in this one, it'll just be cold," Pullen said. "The offenses for both teams are not the best, even though the Texans have put up 20-plus the last couple of weeks against the Cowboys and Chiefs. It's going to be the Derrick Henry show with [Malik] Willis starting, they're not going to put the ball in his hands to air it out. More running game means more of the clock running and running. It might be getting a little too low, but you have two offensively challenged teams. I'm not surprised about the move, more by how much it's moved."

The highest total Saturday is Seahawks at Chiefs at 49.5. It will be bitterly cold in KC as well but sunny. The over has taken 94.8% of the handle – that over has taken nearly three times as much money as any other over or under for Week 16 thanks in large part to a Michigan bettor dropping $303,489 (weird number) on over 49 at -110 for a potential win of $275,899.09.

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