A 2-2-1 week is not what we needed as I pursue a third cash in nine seasons in one of the biggest NFL betting contests in the world. The Raiders push was frustrating, as I was right that the Vikings offense would struggle, and considering the Raiders went out and put up 63 points a few days later, I still don't know how they were shut out. The Chiefs loss could've went either way, so the only truly bad pick was the Colts, and I'm done fading the Bengals with Jake Browning at this point.

I've put together a quality 42-27-1 record this season with these picks, but it's not quite good enough to sit inside the cash line, which is at 45 points (one win equals one point). That cash line is projected to come in quite a bit higher than I expected at this point, and I think I'll need to get to 56.5 points to have a chance rather than my initial 55. That means going 14-6 over the final four weeks, which is very difficult, but my best stretch this season was 15-5 so with some luck we can get there.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.5% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm fading a favorite dealing with a bunch of injuries and backing a team that's trending up: the Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. at the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns offense has had to deal with losing key pieces all season, to the point that Joe Flacco and Jerome Ford are being expected to take them to the playoffs. But they're behind a patchwork offensive line that's down its top three offensive tackles for the rest of the year, and Ethan Pocic is now ruled out center while top guard Joel Bitonio continues to manage a knee issue. Perhaps Flacco and Co. can have success against bad defenses, like they did last week against the Jaguars, but this Bears defense has played well for a significant portion of the season, holding opposing offenses to an average of 271 yards over its last eight games. For reference, the vaunted Browns defense leads the league with 263 yards allowed per game, and the Bears' mark would be second over a full season.

But shouldn't that top-ranked Browns defense shut down the Bears, you ask? The problem is that several members of the defense that has helped elevate the team to elite status will be missing. Maurice Hurst is missing from the middle of the line and Jordan Elliott is trying to make it back from a concussion. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo won't be available to supplement the pass rush. Grant Delpit has joined Rodney McLeod on the IR, while Juan Thornhill has been ruled out, making Cleveland extremely shorthanded at safety. Sure, the star pass rushers are still available, and Martin Emerson is coming off an incredible game at corner, but they'll be tasked with slowing down a Bears offense that seems like it should have D.J. Moore available after he returned to practice Thursday and is running the ball well. The market has this game at Browns -3, and I'd still back the Bears at that line because I think this should be a pick 'em with all of the Browns' injuries, combined with the fact that I think Chicago is the better team right now.

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 15 below.

So which teams should you back in Week 15? Which NFL survivor pool pick should you make? And which underdogs could win outright?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 14, all from the expert who has crushed the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!