We're releasing this week's best bets column early, as I'm going to use the majority of my contest card on the extended four-game holiday slate Thursday and Friday. Typically I don't take the Thursday night game during the season as you have to lock your entire card in Thursday afternoon if you do so, and that means you don't get the advantage of digesting the Friday and Saturday injury news for your other four picks. This week is obviously a unique situation where we can minimize that disadvantage by only using one or two games from the weekend slate.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm on a team I think has played better than their recent results indicate and taking the Tennessee Titans +6 against the Washington Commanders.

The Titans had to overcome a trademark awful pick-six from Will Levis against the Texans, and they did so by hitting a big touchdown to Chig Okonkwo late in the fourth quarter to take the lead for good. The 32-27 final score doesn't speak to how well the Titans defense played in the second half, with a field goal after a seven-yard drive being the only other points Houston scored after the break aside from the pick-six. That defense should be able to handle a beat-up Commanders rushing attack and force Jayden Daniels to beat them with his arm. Six weeks ago, that would've been easy to imagine, but the Washington pass attack has been less effective in recent weeks, with an improbable 86-yard touchdown at the end of the Cowboys game masking an otherwise mediocre game from Daniels through the air.

Maybe the matchup will allow Daniels to excel as a passer once again after facing some tough pass defenses over the last month, but if that's the case then the Titans still have an opportunity to cover and even win in a shootout with how solid the offense has performed since Levis' return. And if Washington's offensive issues continue, Tennessee should have a great chance at winning this game.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert from 2017-23, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks from 2015-23, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 13 below.

So which teams should you back in Week 13? And which underdogs could win outright?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 13, all from the expert who has crushed the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!