We made a late swap to our best bets for the third week in a row, but for the first time it didn't work out, with the Buccaneers just missing a cover while the Vikings ended up getting the cover after being removed from our set of five. Still, a 3-2 week keeps us on pace in the Circa Million, where I rank 217th out of 5,273 with just seven weeks to go. That's just 1.5 points out of the money, but that target line will come down over the rest of the season as more people finish under 60% over the last seven weeks.

This week I passed on getting contest picks in early in order to select from the Thursday/Friday slate, and it's a good thing I did as the Lions would've certainly been on the card. They've looked more like the old Lions over the last two weeks save for a late rally in the last five minutes against the Bears, and a team that had 10 turnovers over its first nine games now has seven over its last two. Detroit has four road games in its final six plus home games against solid Broncos and Vikings teams, and if Minnesota can beat the Bears this week, the NFC North race is suddenly on.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.5% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing maybe the league's hottest team against one I believe is being wildly overrated by the market: the Denver Broncos -1.5 vs. the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns had a less than impressive win over the Steelers last week, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson leading an attack that had just 3.5 yards per play and no plays more than 18 yards against a Steelers defense that has been beatable this year. The Broncos defense has 12 takeaways in its last three games, and I believe the rookie will give them the opportunity for several in this matchup. Russell Wilson is quietly stringing together a quality season, completing 69% of his passes while throwing 19 touchdowns against just four interceptions, and he can lean on the run game here against a Cleveland defense that 15th in yards per rush despite its elite status. Cleveland has also been far better at home than on the road, where its last four opponents have averaged nearly 30 points. The Broncos have enough juice to get out to a lead and put the pressure on Cleveland's rookie QB, who I'm surprised people are backing on the road here.

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks below, along with my large-format survivor pool play for Week 12.

So which teams should you back in Week 12? Which NFL survivor pool pick should you make? And which underdogs could win outright?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 12, all from the expert who has crushed the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!