We're coming off a strong 4-1 week with our best bets where perfection was ruined on Monday in a weird Dolphins-Rams game. The Rams offensive line received some much-needed enforcements from IR, but it seemed like those players and everyone else up front were given third downs off, as Matthew Stafford was completely under siege any time the offense had a new set of downs on the line. 

We'll look to keep the positivity rolling on a card I actually like quite a bit this week with a few clear buys sticking out, including the one we'll get to below.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing a big road 'dog that isn't as bad as the market believes and taking the Tennessee Titans +6 against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Titans offense actually did a solid job on the road last week against the league's No. 1 scoring defense with Will Levis playing for the first time after a multiweek injury (a scenario where QBs often struggle). The defense was a major problem with both starting cornerbacks out, and the matchups don't get any easier this week with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison coming to town. But the difference is that while Justin Herbert has been playing well, Sam Darnold has looked awful the last two weeks and is now managing an injury to his throwing hand. If the Titans can get pressure on Darnold, it could be another game where the Minnesota offense fails to live up to its potential, and playing at anything at full capacity makes it hard to cover such a big number on the road. I think this line should be around Vikings -4, so I love the value on Tennessee here.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert from 2017-23, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks from 2015-23, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 11 below.

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