NFL Week 10 teasers: Proven NFL expert ranks top teaser options, plus why not to back Chargers
It took two pick-sixes to ruin our top teaser last week as the Colts offense predictably struggled at Carolina but got bailed out by some awful decisions by Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, which Kenny Moore quickly took advantage of. The rest of our teaser legs got home, and almost all of them needed the teased number to do so.
It started on Thursday with the Titans failing to cover the spread but easily securing a teaser leg victory at +8.5. Then we went to Germany, where the Dolphins couldn't cover the spread but covered our +8 teaser leg by a point. The Saints somehow didn't cover the spread despite a +5 turnover margin but got there as our top teaser leg at -1.5, and the Buccaneers covered their teased number and likely also the spread for most people, though that was a nail-biter. Finally, the Bills scored a late touchdown to keep the final margin to one score and made anyone who teased their line, as we did on the Early Edge NFL Preview, a winner.
If you've read my other content or followed my picks, you likely already know I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. When it comes to teasers, we stress focusing on the options that go through Teaser Alley and ideally lining up with sides you already like against the main number.
If you don't know what Teaser Alley is, read on to find out. Even if you do, I'll go through every game where I believe there's a teaseable number, give you my analysis of whether it's worth putting in our bucket of potential plays, and then ranking those plays at the end, with the top two representing the best teaser play you can make this week. But if you disagree with any of the analysis for those two teaser legs, you have all the info you need to find other teaser-worthy options.
One team I would suggest avoiding in teasers is the Chargers. Despite winning each of their last two games by three scores, the Chargers opened as home underdogs against the Lions in Week 10, and the market has pushed the line up to Lions -3. If you're buying in to the Chargers being an underrated team, I'd suggest finding a Chargers +3 ticket to play. But if that line comes down a little and we only see 2.5s in the market approaching Sunday, I would caution you against teasing the Chargers up.
Both of those two blowout wins were market by awful quarterback play on the other side, and the Chargers offense didn't really do much against the Jets defense despite winning the game 27-6. They managed just 191 yards of offense while averaging 3.4 yards per play, and Justin Herbert barely completed 50% of his passes. With multiple key receivers on IR, the Chargers don't seem to be much of a threat in the passing game outside of Keenan Allen, and good defenses like Detroit's should be able to handle them. The Lions also represent a much better offense than the Chargers have seen since they gave up 31 points and 483 yards to the Chiefs, and the Lions could throw up a big number on this defense coming out of their bye. If they do, it's possible Justin Herbert can't keep up with the state of his receiving corps. This has too much of a chance to be a Lions blowout to throw the Chargers in a teaser.
Now let's get to the teaser legs I do think are worth considering.
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