NFL Survivor Pool Week 17 strategy: Why we're passing on Vikings, plus updates on $9 million Circa Survivor
Just four entries remain in the Circa Survivor contest, which has a prize pool of more than $9 million, after the Broncos took down six of the 10 remaining entries in the first half of the two-part Christmas slate. We thought they'd be the consensus play and recommended backing the Bears, which two of the survivors did (the others got by with the Rams and Packers). All four only had the Eagles available among the Christmas Day favorites, and all four advanced by playing them, setting up a very interesting Week 17 decision.
All four remaining survivors still have the Broncos available, and that looked to be the way most of them would go until Wednesday, when reports surfaced that the Broncos were benching Russell Wilson to protect them from an injury guarantee in his contract for next year, dropping that line from Broncos -5.5 to Broncos -3. Each of the four survivors has at least four favorites to pick from this week, including the Broncos, and there's only one with a clearly better option. But is it worth risking an entry that now has an implied value of more than $2.3 million on Jarrett Stidham?
When looking at your options for Week 17, it's important to project out the rest of the schedule (hence the point of this weekly column). It's also important to know the format of your pool, as Circa Survivor adds two standalone slates for Thanksgiving and Christmas. We'll get into our top options below, but I would avoid using the Vikings against the Packers.
The Vikings are available to three of the remaining four Circa survivors, and there's a chance someone is going to grab them with Jaire Alexander suspended by the Packers for this game. I have a hard time trusting the Vikings offense, even against a Packers defense that's playing as bad as any unit in the league right now. If Nick Mullens starts, he is capable of putting the ball on a platter for the Green Bay defense and losing a game where he throws for 300 yards, which he did against the Bengals, or even 400 yards, which he did last week against the Lions. And that's if he's even the starter or makes it through the game if he struggles early. I don't have confidence in Jaren Hall to come in and execute the offense any better.
Whoever is at quarterback for the Vikings will also not have T.J. Hockenson to throw to, and he's been an integral part of the passing attack all year. None of the potential fill-ins are reliable receiving options, so that likely means more volume for the receivers, which likely means riskier throws for Mullens (or Hall). Jordan Addison is also dealing with an ankle injury that could affect his availability for Monday.
If you're backing the Vikings, you're counting on their defense winning this game for you, and that's certainly possible with the Packers still dealing with a multitude of injuries to their pass-catching corps. We'll see who is trending toward playing in this game, but Green Bay was able to make it work against a Panthers defense that had been playing surprisingly well, and I like their chances to have success as long as Jordan Love has a few of his normal options out there.
Why listen to me? Well, I was 535-450-30 (+3532) on ATS picks over the last six years and even better with my top five picks each week, going 376-290-24 (56.5%) over the last eight years in the Westgate SuperContest. While this doesn't involve picking against the spread, I do believe by applying the strategies I've developed to have long-term success on those picks to survivor pools, we'll be in the best position to outlast the competition.
Below, you'll find my top options for this week as well as a tiered set of options for every week over the rest of the season. Let's dig in.
What are the best options to use in survivor pools in Week 17? And which teams should be saved to use later in the season? ... Join SportsLine right now to see NFL Survivor Pool strategy from the expert who's 535-450-30 on ATS picks from 2017-22, returning $3,532 to $100 players!
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