NFL Projections: What to do with Andrew Luck

When it comes to historical consistency, Andrew Luck is as solid of a fantasy quarterback as you'll find.

Since 2014, Luck has played in 38 games and has posted 20-plus fantasy points in 76.3 percent of those contests. Tom Brady, the only other quarterback close to that mark, has done it in 70 percent of games in that span.

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Luck again has the potential to put up big numbers in 2017. With a true No. 1 receiver in T.Y. Hilton, a shaky run game and a questionable defense, the Colts should throw early and often this season. His offensive line might not be elite, but Indy has invested enough in it to keep him more upright as well.

But a lingering shoulder issues is scaring off some fantasy pundits and players. 

Luck doesn't seem to be in imminent danger of missing an extended period of time in 2017, but Indianapolis leadership has not committed to him being available for the opener on Sept. 10. Nearly eight months since undergoing a shoulder procedure, the fact that Luck's status hasn't been solidified is concerning for fans and fantasy players alike.

That leaves fantasy owners with a dilemma. Should Luck be treated like an elite quarterback or more of a buyer-beware option?

SportsLine's Optimal Rankings Cheat Sheets, developed by data engineer Stephen Oh, have come out with updated projections for Luck's 2017 campaign, and he's moved down a few slots since the opening of camp.

As of Monday, Luck ranks as the No. 12 quarterback after opening at No. 9 before camp. He's been passed by Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Kirk Cousins in the past few weeks.

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Luck remains a better pick than Dak Prescott, Derek Carr and Matthew Stafford, however, according to the projections.

Concerns about Luck's shoulder are valid enough to make fantasy owners consider other options first, but not serious enough to remove him from the board or drop him substantially. Consider him as a value mid-round pick, but also be sure to grab a reliable backup later in the draft if you're rolling the dice a bit with Luck.

Which quarterbacks should you have on your “must-draft” list -- and where should you draft them for a value? Visit SportsLine's cheat sheets to get rankings from the same model that powered all three fantasy sites and find out.