NFL Over/Unders: An initial look at the AFC East

The sports betting calendar waits for no one.

As we hurdle toward March Madness, one Vegas sportsbook operation unveiled 2016 NFL regular-season win totals last week.

Wait, what? Yes, you read that correctly.

CG Technology rolled out over/unders on all 32 NFL franchises before free agency and the draft, before schedules are even released. Those three very important factors aren't going to stop me from offering my initial thoughts on every single team's outlook.

(If you're headed to Vegas soon, CG Technology operates sportsbooks on the strip at Tropicana, Venetian, Palms, Hard Rock, and their newly renovated spot at Cosmopolitan. The books take up to $500 per bet on win totals.)

For each team, I'll offer a pick and a confidence level from 1 to 5, with "5" being the strongest possible recommendation.

New York Jets

2015 record:  10-6
2016 win total:  Opened: 8 (Over -125); Now: 8 (Over -125)

Can the Fitzmagic era take the next step and lead Gang Green to the postseason? There wasn't a more heartbreaking end to the regular season than what unfolded on the field in Orchard Park, N.Y., but for lifelong Jets fans it was probably expected.

I applaud the change in team culture and what it means going forward, yet I'm skeptical of the current talent mix being able to duplicate last season's success.

This was a .500 team headed into Thanksgiving before rattling off five wins in its final six games. Asking them to go 9-7 feels like a slight reach at this point.

Pick:  Under  Confidence: 1

New England Patriots

2015 record:  12-4
2016 win total:  Opened 10.5 (Over -120); Now 10.5 (Over -135)

As if Tom Brady didn't have job security, the soon-to-be 39-year-old was just signed to a two-year extension. How does this impact the Patriots' season outlook?

It doesn't, but clearly Tom Terrific's window to win Super Bowls is closing.

The Pats just plug in optimal fits regardless of the names on the back of the jerseys. Asking this team to take a step back seems like a death wish, even with a schedule that does them no favors this upcoming season.

Until I see signs of a demise coming out of Foxboro, you're not going to convince me betting them Under the total is a good idea.

Pick:  Over  Confidence:  3

Miami Dolphins

2015 record:  6-10
2016 win total:  Opened 7 (Under -125); Now 7 (Over -120)

You can make the case that the Dolphins were one of the league's bigger disappointments in 2015, after some oddsmakers set their win total as high as 9.

I think maybe they just played to their talent level, meaning a sub-.500 campaign should be expected this year as well.

Ryan Tannehill hasn't taken the next step in his development. Whether it's on him or the coaches, the results simply aren't there.

Defensively, there's not much to get excited about, even the high-priced Ndamukong Suh.

I refuse to believe this franchise will get the two-win improvement required to cash this Over, especially with three West Coast trips on the schedule.

Pick:  Under  Confidence: 3

Buffalo Bills

2015 record:  8-8
2016 win total:  Opened 8 (Over -115); Now 8 (Over -115)

Speaking of disappointments, maybe I shouldn't have been so harsh on Miami knowing the Bills' defense still calls the AFC East home.

Somehow the league's most talented stop unit, at least on paper, took a giant step backward and gave up points in bunches with alarming regularity.

The LeSean McCoy situation notwithstanding, this offense needs to forge an identity under Tyrod Taylor's leadership by getting the ball to Sammy Watkins more than a few times per game.

I just can't see them going 9-7 with a culture that's more bark than bite under Rex Ryan.

Pick:  Under  Confidence:  3