NFL head coach firing odds: Cardinals, Texans, Commanders, Browns could make changes on Black Monday

While most Americans celebrate Black Friday the day after Thanksgiving to enjoy turkey leftovers, football and terrific shopping deals, Black Monday is not a positive term in the NFL. It refers to the day after the regular season ends, a day typically marked by the firing of a handful of head coaches. SportsLine offers over-under NFL odds on how many coaches may go before the playoff start -- teams will occasionally wait a few days before making a change.

Three coaches were fired during the season: Carolina's Matt Rhule, Indianapolis' Frank Reich and Denver's Nathaniel Hackett. Thus, their interim replacements wouldn't be counted for the purposes of this prop – the Panthers' Steve Wilks and Colts' Jeff Saturday have shots at the full-time gigs.

That Arizona moves on from Kliff Kingsbury is considered such a done deal that one sportsbook lists him as the -300 favorite to be the next full-time coach fired. There were reports that the former Texas Tech coach is so unhappy that he might simply resign, but why give up the millions of dollars remaining on his contract?

It's somewhat unusual for a team to fire a head coach after one season, but the Broncos didn't even let Hackett complete the full 17-game schedule before dumping him. Houston is in complete rebuild mode and currently owns the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, and the scuttlebutt is that Lovie Smith will be gone so the next head coach can grow with whichever quarterback the Texans pick at the top. The betting favorite is Alabama's Bryce Young. Smith was always considered a one-year bridge coach.

Few coaches are more respected around the NFL than Ron Rivera, but he likely sealed his fate by benching Taylor Heinicke for Carson Wentz in Week 17 with Wentz throwing three picks in a 24-10 home loss to Cleveland, making Washington's path to the postseason all but impossible. To make Rivera look worse, he wasn't aware after that loss his team could be eliminated later that day, which it was thanks to a Green Bay victory. The entire Washington franchise figures to get an overhaul under new ownership.

Speaking of the Browns, they have a mega-talented roster but appear to be regressing under Kevin Stefanski. Cleveland was 11-5 and made the playoffs in 2020 when Stefanski was the NFL Coach of the Year, but the team slid to 8-9 last year and is 7-9 this season with Deshaun Watson not looking yet like a franchise quarterback worth multiple first-round picks and a guaranteed $230 million contract.

Other coaches who could be in trouble if their teams flame out early in the playoffs (and thus are not part of this discussion): Brandon Staley of the Chargers and Mike McCarthy of the Cowboys. The owners of both franchises reportedly covet former Saints coach Sean Payton. Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles also could be on shaky ground with a one-and-done showing. Some think Miami's Mike McDaniel could be one-and-done if the Dolphins lose a sixth straight game Sunday and miss the playoffs. Owner Stephen Ross is a Michigan alum and booster and loves Jim Harbaugh.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: How many current full-time NFL head coaches will be fired by the start of the playoffs?

• Over 2.5 -140
• Under 2.5 +120

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