I liked this game better when I thought Bailey Zappe was going to start it. Certainly, I felt better about New England's ability to cover when the rookie seemed primed to get the nod over Mac Jones.

Now, consider my bets hedged.

Jones gives me a lot of pause, on the spread and for prop bets. Hunter Henry and Jakobi Meyers were starting to get real volume and a real share in this offense under Zappe. That wasn't the case with Jones under center. And Jones was a double agent early this season, throwing up pathetic jump balls under pressure and thwarting drives with his decision-making -- game manager he was not.

So a lot of what I was looking to play this week, I'm now passing on. And as I write this, because of the quarterback controversy and lingering doubt as to how exactly this will go, you can't get any action on Patriots props a day before the game. Not a full deck by any means to analyze. But, alas, the show must go on. And if nothing else this has the makings of another prime-time disaster, and it should be one-way traffic regardless of which novice QB The Hoodie uses. (Part of me wonders if Jones doesn't get a quick hook as well, should he revert to his previous 2021 form).

Bears at Patriots

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Spread: Patriots -7.5

You have to go back like 40 years – to the Patriots – to find a team throwing the football less than these Bears. They cannot move it with any vigor, they have no downfield game and they cannot play from behind (they can't really play from ahead, or even, for that matter, either). You can gash them on the ground – they are 30th in rushing defense success rate – and New England is quite willing to do just that. The Bears don't generate pressure and they stink on third down, and when teams run on them in 11 Personnel it gets pretty bleak; expect to see plenty of that Monday night. Oh, and Chicago allows pressure at an astounding rate (16.7% of all dropbacks, worst since the 2005 Texans broke David Carr). Matt Judon is getting off on his pass rushes these days. New England at home in primetime is no joke, and I don't see Belichick calling off the dogs. The Bears have lost nine in a row in primetime and are 1-8 against the spread in that span.

Game Total: Under 40.5

Yeah, it's a low total, but not by this year's standards. Chicago's offensive ineptitude and New England's ascending defense cannot be discounted. And the Bears are pretty good at one thing – they are holding opposing passers to the 8th-lowest rating in the NFL, with more picks than touchdowns allowed. Add in Mac Jones turning it over a few times, and that's points taken off the board that I don't think Chicago offsets much by turning into turnover points itself. The Bears need to try to run the ball into the end zone, because passing it remains a failure; the Patriots have allowed just two rushing touchdowns all year. It really is that bad.

Team Total: Bears Under 15.5

Unsurprisingly, I am leaning into this as well. Belichick just shut out the Lions at home a few weeks ago. Don't think for a minute he isn't trying to do the same thing here. If you want to get cute, you can get +185 on an alternative line of Bears Under 11 points.

Same-Game Parlay (+1100)

• Patriots -7.5
• Under 43.5 (alt total)
• Cairo Santos Over 5.5 Kicking Points

Player Props

Note: Iam very interested in Matt Judon tackle totals, which are not on the board yet, and would bet Jones to throw at least one INT, also not yet available at Caeser's. Keep checking.

Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+210)

We'll see if Mac Jones screws this up, but surely he has seen Zappe target Henry 15 times in his 2 1/2 game played. The Bears haven't really had to defense this position much yet, with the fourth-fewest TE targets in the NFL thus far. That should change Monday night and he is due to get in the end zone. This was at +150 when it looked like Zappe would play. He should find open seams against this Bears zone defense.

Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (-107)

The Bears can get pushed all over the field in the run game, even when they know it's coming. With Damien Harris out lately with injuries, this is the hot hand and I anticipate plenty of volume for him, especially once the Patriots build up their lead.

Justin Fields No TDs (+120)

Sadly, I'm not sure this young man makes it through the game, given the pounding he will be taking – again – and I expect it to be pretty ugly for him when he's in there. The offense refuses to cater to his strengths (which is why I can't lean into rushing attempts), and Belichick will have him contained.

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