I'm old enough to remember these two teams battling for the right to go to Super Bowls. Feels like a long time ago, eh?

What a season for the Packers and Rams, and for Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. All hope is basically lost. Rodgers is having the worst season of his career since becoming a starter. Stafford has seemingly missed more time than he's actually been on the field. Lambeau Field has been no fortress this season. Last we saw the Rams, Baker Mayfield was providing some of the most improbable highlights of the entire season, leading a ridiculous comeback win over the Raiders despite barely practicing with his new team or meeting his teammates.

There's definitely a different vibe to this Matt LaFleur/Sean McVay matchup than any of the ones before. What do I make of it all? This is by no means one of my favorite games of Week 15, but there are a few interesting angles.

Rams at Packers

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Spread: Rams +7

I'm playing this with no great authority. The Rams have been a really bad football team all season and are 1-4 on the road. They are without most of their star players. But this is too many points for the Packers to be laying for me. Not for as mundane as their offense has been all season and not for how bad their defense has been. They have two wins by more than seven points all season – and both were against the Bears, who are Green Bay's punching bag. Everything else has been a struggle for them and I suspect this will be no different. I figure the Packers win, but they are only 3-3 at home this year and just 3-6 outside the division. The Packers are 0-4 against the spread as home favorites.

Total: Over 39.5

The last four Packers games have gone Over, averaging almost 56 points per contest. This is more about me not buying these defenses holding someone in the teens then it is about either offense. I anticipate some turnovers from both quarterbacks that could set up easy scoring opportunities. Mayfield's newness is more likely to show up in this true road environment. This is hardy one of the angles I love about this game but I keep coming back to a 24-21 score in my mental math, or something in that neighborhood.

First Quarter Under 7 Points (+105)

The Packers have been slow to start at home this season, amassing just 19 total first quarter points (25th in NFL) in six home games. The Rams defense has been very stout in the first quarter, especially on the road (allowing just 20 points in that quarter on the road all season).

Same Game Parlay (+1200)

• Aaron Rodgers INT
• Van Jefferson Over 2.5 Catches
• Christian Watson Anytime TD

Player Props

Christian Watson Anytime TD (+160)

Watson continues to be an extreme value for a vital cog in the Packers offense. He is Rodgers' go-to guy in the red zone and has been since he got healthy. Romeo Dobbs coming back doesn't change that for me. I think Watson still gets fed in the red zone.

Aaron Rodgers INT (+133)

Rodgers has already thrown nine picks. This isn't the kind of protection he is used to. There's been plenty of tipped passes and he has not been in sync with his receivers. Thus, problems arise. Like I've done with Tom Brady, I've been playing this prop a fair amount, especially when there is this much value attached. Maybe Jalen Ramsey jumps a route or two.

Van Jefferson Over 2.5 Catches (-111)

Mayfield will sling it out there to his deep threat Jefferson against this defense. There's no reason not to. The Packers have a poor secondary and a spotty pass rush.

Van Jefferson Longest Reception Over 17.5 Yards (-117)

The speedster can stretch the field, get plenty of yards after the catch on a slant, and maybe even exceed this total against this limited defense on a bubble screen.

Ben Skowronek Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

Skowronek is a chain-mover and caught Mayfield's eye the most in the opening game. He got nine targets without the two of them even working together much in practice. I'll lean into that trend here.

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