It feels like we are overdue for an old-school shootout in prime time. Wouldn't you agree? 

We desperately need something to cleanse the palate of that 49ers-Broncos debacle or that Colts-Broncos abomination -- just make us forget about Denver, please. Moreover, this Chiefs vs. Raiders could serve as a much-needed buffer before we hate-watch the Bears and Commanders on Thursday night. Yeah, I'm already dreading capping that. But I do see lots of points to be had Monday night.

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have owned the Raiders. Let's get that out of the way. The Chiefs' last four games against Las Vegas have produced three Kansas City team totals of 31 points or more. Mahomes has 22 touchdowns to just three picks in eight games against the Raiders. Reid is 15-3 against them.

Both of these teams have the ability to score quickly and score in bunches and, well, both feature pass defenses that have been in the bottom quarter of all NFL teams. Opposing passer ratings speak to that. And, well, both are fairly dreadful against tight ends, and we know what these offenses have to offer in that regard. So let's lean in to what has the prospects of being a high-scoring, entertaining affair.

Raiders at Chiefs

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Spread: Chiefs -7

I don't have much faith in this. I have gone back and force on the spread all week and I have less conviction about this than I do about game flow and pace and expectations about the overall tenor. If the Raiders avoid silly mistakes and turnovers, they have the bandwidth to hang with Kansas City. And if Josh Jacobs is able to get his hands on the ball 20 times and slow things down a bit, then I can make a case for this being closer than a touchdown, perhaps much closer. And I could also see the Chiefs building a nice lead but then allowing a backdoor cover. But I'm going to go with Kansas City covering. Call it a gut instinct.

Game Total: Over 51.5

I see this being a back-and-forth game, with each team going on a run or two, and the pace of the game favoring an attacking style of play. The Chiefs' running game is hit or miss and while the Raiders have leaned on Jacobs more in recent weeks, K.C. allows just 3.3 yards per carry. Don't you think Josh McDaniels and Andy Reid will end up chucking it all over the place? Turnovers give me a little pause – especially on the Raiders side – but I anticipate a tour de force from Mahomes that will compel the Raiders to be less balanced than what they would ideally aspire to.

Team Total: Chiefs Over 29.5

I don't see a whole lot to embrace from the Raiders' defense outside of their edge rushers. Teams are completing 75% of their passes to tight ends against the Raiders, and I see major match up advantages for Travis Kelce. The home field advantage will be extreme and Arrowhead will be rocking. The forecast looks glorious; a perfect night to play pitch-and-catch. I get that the Raiders are under new management from last year as a defensive staff, but the Chiefs hung 41 on them in the middle of last season and came back with 48 a month later. Sure, there's no more Tyreek Hill, but the Chiefs offense is adapting and Mahomes is still going to have an MVP-type campaign.

Same-Game Parlay (+333)

• Over 51.5
• Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 TDs
• Derek Carr Over 273.5 Passing Yards

Player Props

Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 TDs (+156)

I have Mahomes penciled in for more than 45 passing touchdowns this season and could see him flirting with 50, again. Three-TD games don't shock me in the least when he's involved, and this is an opponent he has owned. When I can get this kind of value for something that isn't a stretch at all for a player of this quality against this type of opponent, it's going to get my attention. He will spread the ball around and get all his backs, tight ends and receivers involved and find the best match up against a secondary that will provide ample opportunity. Mahomes is a genius in the red zone and the Raiders have one of the very worst red zone defenses in the NFL (10 TDs allowed in 12 red zone drives).

Darren Waller Anytime TD (+175)

You know which team's red zone defense is even worse? And another reason I'm going Over here? Yeah, K.C. has allowed 12 TDs in 15 red zone drives. Waller's size and reach and leaping ability are a big issue in tight spaces, and, as noted, the Chiefs have allowed three TD passes to tight ends already.

Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (-115)

The Raiders allow a passer rating of 120.8 on throws to tight ends, 27th in the NFL. Kelce and Mahomes worked a few things out after that tough outing against the Colts a few weeks back. I've gone around and around on whether to go with he receptions prop or the yardage but settled on catches.

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