The Missouri State Bears (16-15) and the Murray State Racers (12-19) square off in the first round of the 2024 MVC Men's Basketball Tournament on Thursday at 1 p.m. ET. Murray State is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Missouri State vs. Murray State odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 139.5 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our college basketball odds page). 

Before making any Missouri State vs. Murray State picks, you need to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 18 of the 2023-24 season on a 141-100 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. It is also off to a sizzling 26-17 start on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows Missouri State junior guard Alston Mason is the No. 1 option for this team. Mason scores from all three levels and finishes through contact. The Kansas native averages a team-high 17.6 points with 3.6 assists per game. On Feb. 28, Mason had 21 points and five assists.

The model also knows Murray State senior guard Quincy Anderson provides the Racers with a smooth three-level scorer. Anderson has a sweet jumper, averaging 12.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and shoots 39.9% from downtown. In his last game, Anderson totaled 25 points and three rebounds.

Now, the model has set its sights on Missouri State vs. Murray State. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations! 

Who wins Missouri State vs. Murray State, and which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from that's on a 25-14 roll on top-rated college basketball spread picks!