Miami vs. North Carolina ACC basketball odds, bracketology: Tar Heels likely on wrong side of NCAA Tournament bubble with loss

Now that the NFL season is complete, get ready to hear the term bracketology plenty over the next month or so as the field for the NCAA Tournament begins to take shape. Easily the most surprising team currently on the bubble is preseason No. 1 North Carolina, and the Heels could be on the wrong side of it if they lose at home in ACC play Monday against No. 19 Miami. UNC is a 5.5-point favorite at Caesars, which in my opinion is a shockingly high number.

UNC did get a huge home win on Saturday, 91-71 over Clemson, to snap a three-game losing streak and improve to 16-9 overall and 8-6 in the ACC. Caleb Love hit a career-high-tying six 3-pointers and scored 23 points, and Armando Bacot had 19 points and 11 rebounds for his 16th double-double this season and his 65th career (most in school history). It was Love's eighth 20-point game this season, and Carolina is now 20-3 in his career when he scores 20 or more.

Carolina had shot 22.2% (16 for 72) from 3-point territory in its previous three games, but the 15 made 3-pointers (33 attempts) against Clemson tied a season high. The Heels are 7-0 when shooting 35% or better from 3-point range. The 91 points were the most scored by UNC in an ACC game this year.

CBS Sports' Jerry Palm lists North Carolina among his Last Four in and as a No. 11 seed in the First Four against No. 11 Oklahoma State for the 2023 NCAA Tournament. ESPN also has UNC among the Last Four in and as a No. 11 in the First Four against No. 11 Texas A&M. In the NCAA NET Rankings, coach Hubert Davis' club is No. 39 but just 1-8 in Quad 1 games. Monday's game will just miss being a Quad 1 as Miami is ranked No. 32, and the Heels are 5-1 vs. Quad 2 foes.

The Hurricanes (20-5, 11-4 ACC) are in the running for the ACC regular-season title and come off a fourth straight win Saturday, 93-85 over Louisville – failing to cover a huge number in a clear lookahead game toward UNC. Miami is now 14-0 at home. Led by Nijel Pack and Isaiah Wong, the Hurricanes have arguably the ACC's best backcourt.

Palm has Miami as a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament's Midwest Region vs. No. 12 Southern Miss, and ESPN has the Hurricanes a No. 5 in the East vs. No. 12 Kent State.

This is the only scheduled meeting between Miami and UNC. The Hurricanes won by 28 at home in the lone matchup last season to end a five-game losing streak in the series with their largest margin of victory over the Tar Heels.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Will UNC earn an NCAA Tournament berth?

• Yes -500
• No +400

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